City taken by surprise as Bank of England’s figures herald end of recession

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

To be fair

A) We were talking about rate cuts last August/Sept. (I think I was predicted to go to around 1.5%)
I posted about the German scrappage thing and said something like it could happen here. http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1610861&highlight=
C) QE was talked about before it happened also. (that was mainly hyper inflation chats)

Perhaps you missed them.

I didn't miss them.

I didnt see any talk of 1.5% rates anywhere myself. But I'm talking about severity. Yes QE was talked about, but how does that make my "we didnt know the full scale" wrong exactly?

You seem to be arguing with me for the very simple point of arguing?

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/search.html?searchid=64677645
that's 84 posts that you've made reference or questioned the 'bulls' as you call them - pot? kettle? black?

Perhaps we should ban the terms bull and bear? As they are being used out of context now. :cool:

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I didn't miss them.

I didnt see any talk of 1.5% rates anywhere myself. But I'm talking about severity. Yes QE was talked about, but how does that make my "we didnt know the full scale" wrong exactly?

You seem to be arguing with me for the very simple point of arguing?

I posted this in October on about 0.5%
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1251599&highlight=

(don't forget I took a hit of £2.5K thinking rates would be falling and it would work out cheaper long term to remortgage last October than waiting until the end of my mortgage)

I am not arguing for the point of arguing you are failing to see how some actually did take notice and not discount them as tosh.

bendix

Really2 and GrahamDevon arguing for the sake of it? Now that's something you don't see often.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I posted this in October on about 0.5%
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1251599&highlight=

(don't forget I took a hit of £2.5K thinking rates would be falling and it would work out cheaper long term to remortgage last October than waiting until the end of my mortgage)

I am not arguing for the point of arguing you are failing to see how some actually did take notice and not discount them as tosh.

Discount what as tosh?

I don't get your link, you say they could drop .5 of a percent? Not to 0.5%.

Have we moved on from my question of how not knowing the full scale was wrong?

I'm confused.

Really2

bendix wrote: »

Really2 and GrahamDevon arguing for the sake of it? Now that's something you don't see often.

Your right, I will leave it there, But I do believe the forum did talk about some of the plans and drops before they happened. (EG I jumped ship on my mortgage at a fairly high cost as it was fairly widely touted rates would drop low.)

That is what we were here for right.

I suppose what I am trying to say is that that a lot of the "bulls" did actually think the government would throw everything at it, that is why they predicted smaller falls etc.

ruggedtoast

I havent read much of this thread. Is most of it a load of old cobblers?

lemonjelly

Not at all. My post (#51) is most insightful.;)

julieq

One of the main attributes of solutions to unexpectedly severe problems is that the solutions are as difficult to predict as the problems were to anticipate.

What you can reasonably say is that there will be attempts to fix problems, so things don't get as bad as they might be expected to if no-one tried to fix them.

To be honest, no-one was really expecting the near collapse of the western financial system, but people were still predicting house price corrections. There was a severe and unexpected problem, and a severe and unexpected response following naturally. You can't argue on the one hand that an unexpected event that created a situation you claim to be the natural consequence of where we were going is OK yet the equally unexpected response is distorting reality.

People solve problems, or attempt to and the effort they put into that is proportional to the size of the problem. Even if the measures used are often surprising, the fact that there is a net braking effect is not.

That's frankly why moderate voices here tend to be directionally right more often than the extreme ones, because we build in the expectation that big problems will tend to be resolved and we believe in cycles.

bendix

lemonjelly wrote: »

Not at all. My post (#51) is most insightful.;)

I'd supplement that, with perusing the posts of that splendid follow bendix. You might learn a bit from him.

The rest is pretty much a load of cobblers though, agreed.

:beer: