FT - (Auctions) Fears of fresh house price weakness

mbga9pgf

Hey hamish, you still going around making up statistics old bean, and getting proved wrong? Still questioning figures published by official non-VI bodies?

THAT is the definition of insane in my mind.

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Class 5. fool
Anyone deluded enough to believe 70% falls are remotely possible.

Actually, that's beyond a fool, that's the clinical definition of insane.

The best part of the recovery will be watching the slow, sickening, realisation that fools like this will endure as prices inevitably rise, crushing the last vestiges of hope for them slowly and surely, and guaranteeing a lifetime doomed to rent slavery as they miss the bottom by years. And all because they listened to some other fool on the internet who told them 70% falls were possible and this was just a "bulltrap".

Happy days are ahead for sure.....:D

70% is totally unrealistic. Maybe a fall in real terms ( under the rate of wage inflation) for the next 5 -10 years in order for the market to self correct.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Hey hamish, you still going around making up statistics old bean, and getting proved wrong? Still questioning figures published by official non-VI bodies?

THAT is the definition of insane in my mind.

Still ignoring my comprehensive response to your fictional point?

Still ignoring the fact that I was proved right, and posted the stats accordingly?

Still trying to prove income is too low to buy a house, by including income from millions of pensioners, unemployed, and benefits claimants?

Still flogging a dead horse then......:rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

Anyone deluded enough to believe 70% falls are remotely possible.

Happened in japan I think and they are much more densely populated then the uk but they also have a strange system of politics in action and economics apparently so we arent really that bad but nothing is impossible I'd say

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Happened in japan I think and they are much more densely populated then the uk but they also have a strange system of politics in action and economics apparently so we arent really that bad but nothing is impossible I'd say

No, it didn't happen in Japan.

It happened in some parts of Tokyo, but Japan as a whole was only down around 40%, and that took two decades, and is now rising.

There are significant differences between the two economies though. What happened in Japan is extremely unlikely to happen here, not least because they allowed a deflationary tailspin to run for many years before they launched QE, whereas we did it on a larger scale and much faster.

shakerbaby

martin8 wrote: »

Make of this what you will guys... not intended to inflame but just more food for thought on the current climate.

I've only posted the first half of the article as I don't wanna get into trouble and here is the URL for the full article.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d8c7f7ea-8828-11de-82e4-00144feabdc0.html

Disturbing, extremely distrubing news.

Well that is if you're a bull with all your BTL eggs in one basket. :rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

Japan as a whole was only down around 40%

Its good to know the worst case isnt that bad, was that 40% in nominal and real terms
I'd expect london to fall most and recover first here also.
They have a net current account surplus where as we dont, not sure if that reverses what happened to them or not and means we get inflation


http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2004/0304dollar.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

shakerbaby wrote: »

Disturbing, extremely distrubing news.

Well that is if you're a bull with all your BTL eggs in one basket. :rotfl:

Why? House prices are only down 14% two years into the crash, and currently rising.

If auction prices are falling, and auction prices are a leading indicator, that only confirms what we've been saying about the likely falls over this winter.

Right on schedule in fact, so it's hardly "disturbing".

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Why? House prices are only down 14% two years into the crash, and currently rising.

If auction prices are falling, and auction prices are a leading indicator, that only confirms what we've been saying about the likely falls over this winter.

Right on schedule in fact, so it's hardly "disturbing".

Auction prices reflect the lack of credit availability. There are only so many pure cash buyers out there, people that can afford to take a risk.

sabretoothtigger

Is it not possible to buy at auction with a mortgage, just harder I guess