Missed the boat.

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

What would you have me down as Mewbs?

Middle ground to slightly bullish, generally positive view on things. But you are unaware of the financial tsunami that is about to sweep you and your fellow bulls off their feet into the abyss of the .. er.. seem to have run out of steam.

Graham_Devon

Cleaver wrote: »

What would you have me down as Mewbs?

Bit scared to ask, but hey...

Theres a certain chemistry going on between you two.

Tis quite romatic

mewbie_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Theres a certain chemistry going on between you two.

Tis quite romatic

Don't be jealous Graham, there's plenty to go round.

bluey890

mewbie wrote: »

I'm confused bluey. Had you down as a bear?

Taxes are going to go up. The resultant reduction in disposable income is going to impact the prices of big ticket items. Of which houses are one. That's bluey with his bear outfit on.

I have came to the conclusion currencies will crash to sustain house prices.
It is the easiest way for the goverment to keep banks afloat.

Admitedly, it doesn't mean it's fair though.

ManAtHome

mewbie wrote: »

But you are unaware of the financial tsunami that is about to sweep you and your fellow bulls off their feet into the abyss of the .. er..

Spiral Of Doom..?

[edit] Hang on - if the availability of cheap credit is over, at what point do you jump from BoE+ to fixed, and doesn't that level things out a lot?

dfh

From here on interest rates can only go up.Unemployment creeps up.Inflation creeps up.Recipee for disaster.The real house price crash is yet to come.McClown has only staved off the inevitable for a while propping the economy with non existant money.

mewbie_2

ManAtHome wrote: »

Spiral Of Doom..?

Really I should have worked on it a bit more. After all a tsunami would stuff that boat that all the bulls are clinging onto, and would send it crashign into the Northern rocks. A single lifebelt made out of printed notes will not keep them safe for long, and the Sirens are calling their names on the wind - ccchhhuucckky, bbbllluuueeeyyy they call, and the poor sailors are powerless to resist.

I'll stop now, not because I have run out, but I appreciate a little goes a long way.

the_ash_and_the_oak

bluey890 wrote: »

The availability of cheap debt is over. Which got me thinking.
How much more would my mortgage cost if I took it out post crash.

Looking at tracker mortgages, they're about two percent more expensive than when I took mine out.
The term of the mortgage is 25 years. And for arguments sakewe will call the 'average' outstanding balance half the house value.
Using crude maths 2% extra * 25years * 1/2 = 25%

It would cost me approximately a quarter more of my house to take out a mortgage now.
Wow, I am glad I didn't miss the boat.

bang on here. falling prices doesn't equal increased affordability

mewbie_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

bang on here. falling prices doesn't equal increased affordability

No - but it helps.

I know, there are more complex issues at work, but a very big issue is the price of a house. It has kept us arguing for a few years now. Just when they actually start fallling the bulls muddy the waters with interest rates, affordability, fixed rates, deposits, etc.

the_ash_and_the_oak

mewbie wrote: »

No - but it helps.

I know, there are more complex issues at work, but a very big issue is the price of a house. It has kept us arguing for a few years now. Just when they actually start fallling the bulls muddy the waters with interest rates, affordability, fixed rates, deposits, etc.

of course. I just thinking decreasing affordability is the main driver for future price falls - ie the reason prices will fall is because the money to buy them will become more difficult, and more expensive, to borrow

obv we've seen some of this already (initially combined with problems for current owners, and then later on, with pressures for current owners reduced, mitigating falls for now)