MSE news: Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years

chrishoar

Spiv wrote: »

Good on you mate - you hold out for your 50% fall. Courage of your convictions and all that. Got to go...work to do.

Where did 50% come from? And ok, take care and good luck

abaxas

Spiv wrote: »

But if your arguments were right then house prices would be falling but house prices are rising ergo your arguments must be wrong. No matter how much you believe in them.

Wrong!

The Nationwide index has nothing to do with home values, it an index of the mortgages they approve.

The belief that the index has anything to do with the value of homes is absurd, in truth it's a guide in the bubble of their lending critera.

Ie what they are saying is 'the value given to homes by surveyors that Nationwide where happy to give a morgage on is increasing'.

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

Wrong!

The Nationwide index has nothing to do with home values, it an index of the mortgages they approve.

The belief that the index has anything to do with the value of homes is absurd, in truth it's a guide in the bubble of their lending critera.

Ie what they are saying is 'the value given to homes by surveyors that Nationwide where happy to give a morgage on is increasing'.

actually no.

the Nationwide do have an affordability index and that shows that there are quite a few regions that show that property is affordable.

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

actually no.

the Nationwide do have an affordability index and that shows that there are quite a few regions that show that property is affordable.

Link please!

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

Link please!

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/FTB_Affordability_Indices.xls

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/FTB_Affordability_Indices.xls

"Initial mortgage payments calculated using new lending interest rate (source: CML) for a loan 90% of the typical FTB house price"

Does anyone have that data to hand?

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

"Initial mortgage payments calculated using new lending interest rate (source: CML) for a loan 90% of the typical FTB house price"

Does anyone have that data to hand?

the nationwide must have the data otherwise they wouldn't have been able to make the calculations...

have you noticed the figures for the North - property looks affordable there now for FTBs

julieq

chrishoar wrote: »

You see this is where the whole argument falls down, on the one hand you have Spiv saying there is plenty of money about, on the other hand you have shelter saying there are many houses in crises struggling to pay rent or mortgage. The "lack of affordable homes" is applicable atm, but the market will correct that. There will be a glut of buy to let up for sale which will push the market down, people not being able to afford the rent that would cover the landlords mortgage etc. That is just one aspect, then there are those that will not be able to hold on to their homes due to redundancy etc. We are at the start and no amount of denial will change it, the market will fall, ive yet to see an argument that does not support this, even when people are arguing it will rise

Why on earth would there be a glut of buy to let houses coming onto the market when yields and occupancy rates are fine? The one way to crystallise a capital loss is to take it, you don't do that by selling when you don't need to, and especially not if prices look like stabilising, which frankly they are by every measure.

This is all straight out of the book of the cult of house price crash really. It's like arguing with Jehovah's witnesses sometimes, you state a contrary position, one of them reels off the standard response in one breathless paragraph as if it's the only possible thing to believe, and they stand on your doorstep agreeing with each other.

lethal0r

something I dont think has been mentioned (I waded quickly through all the slanging matches) is how much effect dropping to 0.5% BBR has had. and to a lesser extent the other government initiatives to reduce repossessions. I think that has stopped the fall being MUCH bigger.

i also think mervyn king / the government / whoever has done a good job since the recession began.

StevieJ

lethal0r wrote: »

something I dont think has been mentioned (I waded quickly through all the slanging matches) is how much effect dropping to 0.5% BBR has had. and to a lesser extent the other government initiatives to reduce repossessions. I think that has stopped the fall being MUCH bigger.

i also think mervyn king / the government / whoever has done a good job since the recession began.

I think it assumed as a given