New LR sold figures released yesterday in my area - some great drops!

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

In your area?

Not in mine.

No idea, i am just killing time carol, killing time.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

He's not giving out advice, Dan - I've already told him my plans.

So how are the price drops loooking in your area, Dan?

I live in the SE - it's on the rise.

carolt

mr.broderick wrote: »

No idea, i am just killing time carol, killing time.

Fair enough.

carolt

Dan: wrote: »

I live in the SE - it's on the rise.

Ooops - unintentional thanks instead of quote.

I live in the SE too - it's not. Have you looked at your most recent sold figures for your area? If not, I recommend it - you might find it instructive.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

I live in the SE too

Im moving up North.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

The (long overdue) LR sold prices arrived in my inbox yesterday - as discussed recently, LR has been having a redesign of some type, meaning that some sold prices had disappeared off various sites, plus more recent data had not been included. Hence my new batch of sold prices were larger than usual, including some going back to May, that should have been there before now, and which I have been eagerly awaiting, as it included a couple of properties I'd been monitoring.

Pleased to note that there are no price jumps in my area, far from it - houses that at peak were asking 325-350K, and selling for around 300-350K, are now all selling at 230-250K. Some of them came on at peak and slowly worked their way down. Much more like a comfortable multiple of salary.

And no - still not buying, personally - partly because I have no idea where I want to buy yet - should become clearer over the next year - and because I'm confident in further falls. And long-term fixed rates are still poor.

Any news from other updates in other areas?

Interesting to compare anecdotals - the main indices are debated over several threads, but I thought it would be interesting to focus on specifics.

you're a star carol

you're own little house price index...

ln(Pi) = bo,i + W1.b1,i + W2.b2,i + W3.b3,i + ..........

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/economic_trends/development_of_a_land-registry_based_national_house_price_index.pdf

RSR (Land Registry House Price Index)

Repeat Sales Regression uses "unique comparables" - comparing the value of a property to itself over time. It says that the value of all of the characteristics of a property is wrapped up in the price someone will pay for it. After all, that's really the only measure of value which counts. This means that if we know what a property sold for in the past, and what it sold for recently, we can know what the change in value of the combination of characteristics that make up that property over time. Once you combine this with other properties which were priced at around the same as our first property at its starting point, you know that you are comparing like with like (not just a bundle of properties which may be completely different, but have been stuck together simply because they have the same number of bedrooms).

In fact, every property becomes its own index once it has sold more than once. This means that the HPI effectively has 1.4 million indices built into the national number, and the number of these mini indices is increasing all the time as more properties transact more than once.

The reason why this is possible is that Land Registry records every property transaction in England and Wales, not just the ones which have mortgages or who come through a certain lender. So the sample from which is draws is much bigger, so the index can be done to a much more local level.

There are weaknesses to every method of calculating a house price index, and no one month of any index should be taken as any kind of indication of overall activity or especially of future trends - but over a period of time, we can build up a picture of what is going on in the market.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=3376&cat=44-0-0

carolt

chucky wrote: »

you're a star carol

you're own little house price index...

Yes, as ISTL is fond of pointing out, it's your own area that matters.

How are prices doing in your area, chucky?

chucky

carolt wrote: »

Yes, as ISTL is fond of pointing out, it's your own area that matters.

How are prices doing in your area, chucky?

not bad - thanks for asking.
but i'd wish they'd drop again so i can get back in during the Autumn.

how are you comparing this because the land Registry uses repeat sales regression to calculate their index. are you just comparing average prices for all the properties or are you splitting them out into the type of property too?

carolt

No, I'm comparing the sold prices of very specific houses with others that I happen to know to be well-nigh identical in the same street. No index I know of would give me that information.

So I'm deliberately not comparing 2 in the same street where I know they are of different sizes, even if the indices would be unable to tell them apart - both semis, say.

My index is both more personal and far more accurate.

JonnyBravo

carolt wrote: »

And long-term fixed rates are still poor.

eh?

How long term?

When interest rates rise the rates available today will look positively lovely.

(They also don't look too bad comapred to the last 25yrs as it is.... it's just they're poor compared to BoE base rate)