MSE news 'House price crash is over'

mewbie_2

More on (should that be moron?) the fake supply and demand thing. 20% off over last year or so means what? 20% of potential house owners died from swine flu / left the country? Or were 20% too many houses built?

It's just nonsense, another bull story to amuse the kids with.

the_ash_and_the_oak

not_loaded wrote: »

Mmm… Being engaged and looking to get married, use our savings, and buy a house in 1973 to 1975, neither of us spotted this ‘dramatic crash in property prices’. We were in a brilliant position to take advantage of it if it were there. :rolleyes:

I for one do not think this is a load of rubbish.

You quote well-known facts. Thank you! :T

I can’t think how many times I’ve spoken and typed the words 'law of supply and demand' in the last few years.

The US problem (and the Spanish problem) is a drastic over supply of housing. It ain’t so here.

not really feeling theres a drastic oversupply in the UK but there is certainly more than sufficient supply imo (particularly of flats). Its certainly not difficult to find a place to live, pretty sure whenever I have moved house there were many to choose from

abinanthanb

dgl1001 wrote: »

Its different this time because of the lack of supply in housing. Is this a real issue which few bears want to acknowledge. Over the next 20 years, the average household size will fall from 2.4 persons per household to 2.2 persons. That doesn't sound alot, but it will require the housing stock to be increased by 10% (say 2.4million additional homes), just to house the existing population. Then we have

• an aging population, who are living longer
• Births exceeding the death rate (see above)
• and immigration.

So, the easy thing to do is to build more housing. Kate Barker (Bank of England) beleives we need to build 240,000 new homes a year just to keep up with demand, let along build enough to decrease prices. I think we're building just over £100k per annum at the mow. Even if the political will was there, we would struggle to build that many - and here lies the problem - as a county we haven't got the money, infrastructure or the political will to build more housing - but households are still going to form.

So that's the future, how about now, why are haven't prices dropped futher now? Well, believe it or not, we haven't been building enough housing for the last 20 to 30 years and the massive increase in prices is partly due to the lack of supply, and partly due to the easy availibilty of credit. Now, if we had built sufficent houses over the last 30 years, and we'd of have the credit crunch, prices would have gone down alot further - but they haven't, they've been sustained because of the lack of supply.

I'm sure everyone thinks this is a load of rubbish, but remember this as an example how badly we have been building new homes. In 2001, Leiecester had to produce it's 20 year plan to accomodate future housing needs. An assumption was made for the imigration of people from the indian sub-continient (india/ pakistan etc etc). Guess how many new homes were set aside to accomodate this immigration per year? 3,000 new homes? 6,000 new homes? answer .......35 new homes were set aside a accomodate immigration from the indian sub- continient every year. And guess what, evry single authroity has been doing the same for years and years..... hense the massive problem we have now.

If you think house prices are expensive now, give it 20 years

Number of homes in UK as of 2006 - 25 million
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/default.stm

Number of families in UK as of 2006 - 17.1 million (Worst case, I assume this stat covers only British nationals)
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/families/

Migrant population in UK as of 2009 - Approx 8% ie 4.5 million (This is just the count of individuals. If you count families and students who usually share a flat/room and thus the total number of households will come down by atleast 20%)

Referring to these stats, where is supply shortage?!!

Really2

abinanthanb wrote: »

Number of homes in UK as of 2006 - 25 million
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/default.stm

Number of families in UK as of 2006 - 17.1 million (Worst case, I assume this stat covers only British nationals)
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/families/

Migrant population in UK as of 2009 - Approx 8% ie 4.5 million (This is just the count of individuals. If you count families and students who usually share a flat/room and thus the total number of households will come down by atleast 20%)

Referring to these stats, where is supply shortage?!!

Homes includes 1 bed flats etc.

The next problem is shortages in areas where they are needed. EG London the reason London is so expensive is because it does not have enough hoses in the areas people want to live for work etc. That means the richer pay more to live nearer, that then pushes up the surrounding area etc.

nearly 10M properties are held by single people (retied or just small properties)
That is set to get more and more.


So that would give you approximatley a 2.1M shortfall of family housing.

Thanks I never knew the 17.1M family stat that proves their is a drastic under supply of family homes.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

Homes includes 1 bed flats etc.

The next problem is shortages in areas where they are needed. EG London the reason London is so expensive is because it does not have enough hoses in the areas people want to live for work etc. That means the richer pay more to live nearer, that then pushes up the surrounding area etc.

nearly 10M properties are held by single people (retied or just small properties)
That is set to get more and more.


So that would give you approximatley a 2.1M shortfall of family housing.

Thanks I never knew the 17.1M family stat that proves their is a drastic under supply of family homes.

don't really understand this tbh. if there aren't enough places to live in London how come rents never seem to increase?

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

don't really understand this tbh. if there aren't enough places to live in London how come rents never seem to increase?

What is the average rent in london.

Round here the average rent for a 3 bed is around £500-£600.

I doubt rents have not increased in the last 10 years,

The point is like the person above showed their is 17.1M family's and only 15M properties to fit in. it is in black and white.
Family homes are in constraint that is why they have fallen in value much less than flats.

the_ash_and_the_oak

I've lived in 4 houseshares in the last 6 years in North London, rent has always been around 450-500 pcm whenever I've looked

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I've lived in 4 houseshares in the last 6 years in North London, rent has always been around 450-500 pcm whenever I've looked

per person:eek: I was talking 3 bed house was 500-600
so rent for a house is £2000 in london.:eek:

I think you will find they have inflated, look at that compared to near me. Just goes to prove that people pay more to live near work which then drives up prices as the richer are willing to pay more.

the_ash_and_the_oak

dunno just had a quick look on archive.org

http://web.archive.org/web/20020208161331/www.moveflat.com/c/39519.htm

this was available in tufnell park in 2002 for 476 pcm

in tufnell park today found this

http://www.moveflat.co.uk/c/309817.htm at 477pcm

and this at

http://www.moveflat.co.uk/c/311508.htm at 408pcm

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

dunno just had a quick look on archive.org

http://web.archive.org/web/20020208161331/www.moveflat.com/c/39519.htm

this was available in tufnell park in 2002 for 476 pcm

in tufnell park today found this

http://www.moveflat.co.uk/c/309817.htm at 477pcm

and this at

http://www.moveflat.co.uk/c/311508.htm at 408pcm

They are still a bedroom.

I don't see the relevence of renting a bedroom to the fact 17.1M family's don't fit in to 15M homes.