MSE news 'House price crash is over'

the_ash_and_the_oak

a bedroom that has not increased in 7 years.

the debate here is not price level, it is price direction. if there is increased pressure on housing stock then rental prices should have risen. but they haven't. where is the rent inflation?

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

a bedroom that has not increased in 7 years.

the debate here is not price level, it is price direction. if there is increased pressure on housing stock then rental prices should have risen. but they haven't. where is the rent inflation?

so rent as not increased in London for the last 7 years or is it just for you? Have you got figures for the last 7 years?


I don't see the relevence of renting a bedroom to the fact 17.1M family's don't fit in to 15M homes.

the_ash_and_the_oak

I don't have rental figures for the last 7 years. what i do have is the ability to go and look on archive.org and find rental properties in london 7 years ago at the same prices as today (there are many others on archive.org, it is not just that i have been lucky). yes it is one bedroom. but it is also 3 bedrooms in a house. 477 per room 7 years ago vs similar today. 477x3= 1400pcm for a house 7 years ago vs same today.

1400pcm 7 years ago vs same today?

if there is an issue of simple supply and demand problems in this country then should not increased demand for housing increase housing costs? is this not why house prices rose so dramatically? then, why not rents?

the relevance is that in your previous post you couldn't believe there had not been significant rent inflation in london, just wanted to kind of counter that a bit tbh

the_ash_and_the_oak

or perhaps a wider question. should 17m people trying to live in 15m houses have a noticeable effect on rental prices in London?

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

or perhaps a wider question. should 17m people trying to live in 15m houses have a noticeable effect on rental prices in London?

You pay more than where I live so the answer is yes.

The thread was about a shortage you have seemd to want to pull that round to the cost of rent.

If that is what you want to discuss their is a rental forum.;)

the_ash_and_the_oak

dunno kinda puzzled this shortage didn't have an effect on prices as tend to feel shortage of things normally drives prices up imo, but I can drop this and go to the rental forum sure

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

dunno kinda puzzled this shortage didn't have an effect on prices as tend to feel shortage of things normally drives prices up imo, but I can drop this and go to the rental forum sure

Not many family's rent a bedroom so not sure how you would have seen it?

As far as I know house prices did go up.

How about this for a senario, family house prices go up. People see property prices increase so start to invest this the causes people to buy smaller properties beliving they to will be driven up, which they do (the demand caused by this makes prices keep rising)

This causes a bubble, the bubble pops. People then find out the 1 bed flats were not actualy in short supply and they crash the hardest. Prices fall but the most in demand stay higher.

That seems a fairly logical explanation of what has happened over the last 10 years. (If a little simplistic)

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

Not many family's rent a bedroom so not sure how you would have seen it?

As far as I know house prices did go up.

How about this for a senario, family house prices go up. People see property prices increase so start to invest this the causes people to buy smaller properties beliving they to will be driven up, which they do (the demand caused by this makes prices keep rising)

This causes a bubble, the bubble pops. People then find out the 1 bed flats were not actualy in short supply and they crash the hardest. Prices fall but the most in demand stay higher.

That seems a fairly logical explanation of what has happened over the last 10 years. (If a little simplistic)

well, its kind of like this. a houseshare with 3 bedrooms in it, is kind of the same as a 3bedroomed house. lets just say you rent not one room at 477, but all 3 (or the whole house!), that would have cost you 477x3 in 2002. whereas today you would be looking at 477x3

house prices went up. rental prices did not. if it was a shortage issue, simply an issue of supply and demand both should have gone up imo

(not really talking about 1bed flats so much here tbf, more like 3 and 4 bed houses, mostly victorian for these kind of areas i guess)

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

well, its kind of like this. a houseshare with 3 bedrooms in it, is kind of the same as a 3bedroomed house. they used to cost around 1400pcm in, say, tufnell park, in around 2002. in 2009 you can get them for around 1400pcm

house prices went up. rental prices did not. if it was a shortage issue, simply an issue of supply and demand both should have gone up imo

(not really talking about 1bed flats so much here tbf, more like 3 and 4 bed houses, mostly victorian for these kind of areas i guess)

I don't know but I would be surprised they had not increased with inflation to be honest as most agreament have some kind of increase written in.

I know here rents are higher than 7 years ago.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Look I'm not trying to be a !!!! about this, but unless you are disputing my archive.org figures you have to accept that they haven't really risen in north london during that period (i just picked at random, but even if i had been looking for things to back me up - surely i shouldnt really be able to do that if they had risen with any seriousness) - these aren't 1 bed flats, they are family houses, victorian terraces (our current place is me and 2 friends, renting the house together - just as a family would).

There may well have been rent inflation elsewhere, but not really where I am tbh (where there is supposedly massive pressure in housing stock)