MSE news: House prices rise marginally, says Land Registry

chucky

skap7309 wrote: »

Eventually people holding out for a clearly unrealistic price will quite rightly want to get on with their lives so will eventually give in and sell. Your talk of number 3 can entirely work both ways - remember the three Ds? (Death, divorce and debt). I am sure the pressure is FAR greater for these sets of people.

yep - it will be. which points to a degree of stagnation with house prices.

skap7309

Just one more mention. As some (i stress not all) bulls loved to serve the line during persistent falls - its not about the average, you have to look at your local area because some areas will hold their value.
Yep, Cambridgeshire is still to report a rise in 17 months. All this and only 50 miles north of London.

chucky

skap7309 wrote: »

Just one more mention. As some (i stress not all) bulls loved to serve the line during persistent falls - its not about the average, you have to look at your local area because some areas will hold their value.
Yep, Cambridgeshire is still to report a rise in 17 months. All this and only 50 miles north of London.

sounds good for you... you must be at mid 2004 prices.

most areas are in London (50 miles South of Cambridgeshire) are at late 2006 or early 2007 prices.

you must not be living in a desireable area - you should move further south where there is more stability in house prices

mbga9pgf

you must not be living in a desireable area - you should move further south where there is more stability in house prices

What, like in Wiltshire where semi detached and detached properties fell another 1% this month?

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

What, like in Wiltshire where semi detached and detached properties fell another 1% this month?

chill sunshine - it was a joke... but then again... if it dropped another 1% it can't be a nice area...

we all know that Wiltshire is a ghetto, i only know that because people like Sting and Madonna live there.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

chill sunshine - it was a joke... but then again... if it dropped another 1% it can't be nice area...

we all know that Wiltshire is a ghetto, i only know that because people like Sting and Madonna live there.

Doesn't Sting live in the Amazonian rain forest?

BTW, I think it's amazing how he combines that with being a racing driver. And Madonna being Mother of Jesus and also top cocaine-taking footballist.

Inspirations both.

lemonjelly

chucky wrote: »

unemployment rising to 3 million and rates rising may be a year apart according to many. my view is that unemployment will affect some areas worse than others - it won't just affect home owners; if it does they may have savings and redundancy payments to back them up so will not probably need to sell. some will - the question is how many.

i don't see it as a major factor but it is an important one.

Chucky, only quoted part of your statement as I'm not in a position to comment on the second part at the moment. However, I feel the above view is oversimplified.

The unemployment figures are going to rise for the next 3 months. Principally because we will see graduates, college leavers and school leavers added to their ranks.

I believe we will continue to see business' closing (on fivelive yesterday they suggested 120 small business' close each day!). The knock on implications of this are growing.

Peoples sentiments will be severely affected by the fact that we will see 5-6+ months of continuous increases in the unemployment figures. Yes, some of this will be down to the education leavers, and is a seasonal thing anyway, but joe public will see unemployment going only one way. There is a strong change many will accordingly adopt a seige mentality.

Over the next 6 months consumer spending will fall, purely because people will be more careful with their hard earned. That, & the ongoing reduced availability of credit. As a nation, we will all be earning less. Ergo, nationally, there will be less money to spend.

The welfare reform act is also designed to get 1 million of the 2.4 million incapacity benefit claimants off sickness benefits, & onto JSA (further inflating the figures).

Lastly, whilst you're correct, the hardship won't just affect homeowners, the majority of homeowners don't have savings to rely on (trust me, for 12 years I've been dealing with their creditors;)), and redundancy payments for many are capped, not paid at normal salary. Many people have such massive problems because of the contrast between wages and level of benefits. Redundancy payments only seem to last most people a week or 2. Worst, those with mortgages tend to whack the lot off their mortgage, then go down the jobcentre to find it was supposed to cover their notice period & they're not entitled to benefits during the notice period. So they've no cash, & can't claim benefits for a while.

I never intended to post such a depressing post!:A

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

I never intended to post such a depressing post!

it wasn't depressing at all - probably very accurate.

when i say it's not the most important factor to affect house prices - for me the more important factors are the scale of bank lending and obviously sentiment.

if we look back at unemployment pre-credit crunch it was around 1.6 million. it's now 2.4 million - that's "only" an extra 800,000 unemployed, i personally would have expected more with 30,000 of those going from Woolworths, the large numbers from Corus and those in the car industry for example.
(when i say "only" i'm saying that in not a dismissive way but as a direct result of any recession unfortunately)

most companies have been very efficient in cutting costs which means job losses, look at the annual results coming out of all the companies, they're all about their cost cutting efficiencies when revenues are all reducing. the question is whether these customers are lean enough to come through the next two years or will they need more 'cost cutting' - you seem to indicate it will be worse, i don't know.

lemonjelly

Got to be honest, I really have no idea. Instinct tells me it'll get worse. My natural optimism feels it could get better.

I think it will depend on how we, as people respond to the withdrawal of credit, and to unemployment. That means the future of the economy is dependent on hundreds of thousands of decisions made in family homes up & down the country! Do we save? Spend? Retrain? Go to university? Start our own business? Claim whatever we can for as long as we can? Emigrate?

Whatever happens, I think it'll take a while...

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

it wasn't depressing at all - probably very accurate.

when i say it's not the most important factor to affect house prices - for me the more important factors are the scale of bank lending and obviously sentiment.

if we look back at unemployment pre-credit crunch it was around 1.6 million. it's now 2.4 million - that's "only" an extra 800,000 unemployed, i personally would have expected more with 30,000 of those going from Woolworths, the large numbers from Corus and those in the car industry for example.
(when i say "only" i'm saying that in not a dismissive way but as a direct result of any recession unfortunately)


most companies have been very efficient in cutting costs which means job losses, look at the annual results coming out of all the companies, they're all about their cost cutting efficiencies when revenues are all reducing. the question is whether these customers are lean enough to come through the next two years or will they need more 'cost cutting' - you seem to indicate it will be worse, i don't know.

One measure such as looking at headline unemployment numbers isn't enough. In the same way that saying that banks are borrowing at .5% and lending at 6%. So must be making big profits. The whole picture is far more complex.

Unemployment - what else.

(a) Redundancies announced not yet made.
(b) Contract workers given notice of non renewal of contract at end of term
(c) People working over 16 hours now part time. - not logged as unemployed
(d) Reduced working hours ( besides laying off 12% of our workforce all staff have reduced their hours and taken 8% pay cut in exchange).
(e) So far private sector has borne brunt. Public sctor yet to feel the axe.
(f) More companies will go bust this autumn. ( Weather can't be helping those dependent on school summer holiday business).
(g) Those with savings ineligible for benefits so again not on unemployed data.

Out of interest who are the banks going to lend to ( that they aren't already in a broad sense). Mortgage money is available for those who want to borrow and can afford to.

Until we at last reach a plateau with unemployment. Its hard to see enough people making life changing decisions regarding house purchase to influence the market upwards.