UK house prices: history suggests it won't be until 2016 that they recover to pre-boo

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Well then they are bears not bulls :beer:

:rotfl:

Objectively speaking, I am bearish on the outlook for property in the short term, and bullish in the medium to long term.

Philosophically speaking, I believe house price growth has benefits to society for as long as it can be maintained, ie, until population stops growing.

But at the end of the day, I really don't care about anyone else so long as I make money, so all the rest is just noise.

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

Objectively speaking, I am bearish on the outlook for property in the short term, and bullish in the medium to long term.

Agree with you on this point. As its the way the world works.....

crazygaijin

The last time this happened in the 90s it was about 6 years before the bear market turned.

So from 2007 the top we are about half way through.



Houses have always gone from overvalued to undervaluedthroughout history. There is no reason this will change.

In the 90s they went from overvalued to undervalued, it took about 6 years then they went to overvalued again. In 2007 they started on the turn just like always has happened. The line never goes stright one way, but in 3 years they should be near the bottom again.

IveSeenTheLight

crazygaijin wrote: »

The last time this happened in the 90s it was about 6 years before the bear market turned.

So from 2007 the top we are about half way through.

What's so special about the 90's?
Why chose that correction and not any of the others?
One thing for sure is that each correction is quite independant from each other.

If you are adamant you wish to compare to the 90's, I can show that in some areas property prices fully recovered within one year, not 6 as you suggest.

I can also show that this time, a similar percentage drop was achieved compared to the 90's but it was achieved in a shorter period.
As it took a shorter period to reach the bottom, surely it's comprehendable that it may not take 6 years to fully recover nationwide.

[edit]
Oh wait a minute, noticed from you signature your a member of the 70% club :rotfl:
[/edit]

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Will there? I don't know that this is true. Last time around, prices rose by between 3% and 7% a year for the first few years of recovery. This year, prices have already risen by £9,000 since february.

Last time around there was certainly not the shortage of supply, QE, lowest rates in history, etc, that we see today, all of which could spur recovery far faster than last time.

This crash does seem to have been time compressed so far. I see no reason why the recovery would not be time compressed as well, given all the external factors at play such as low rates, QE, population growth, and a more severe (and getting worse) underlying shortage of housing than last time.

And that was a HAMISH_MCTAVISH top tip.....:money:

doire_2

ad9898 wrote: »

You know Hamish if the economic fundamentals were heading in the right direction I may agree with your above statement, the problem is they are not, they are just being staved off until the next election with QE and borrowed money, both of which will come to a grinding halt in the not too distant future, we are in the 'finger in the dam phase'. Let's see what happens over the next 12 months hey.

No point in posting that mate. Bulls think the government have loads of money which will sort out this mess. :rolleyes: They also fail to see that labour are doing everything they can to get in for another term...and to hell with the consequences.

StevieJ

crazygaijin wrote: »

Houses have always gone from overvalued to undervaluedthroughout history. There is no reason this will change.

I thought the 70's correction only lasted about a year Carry on Dreaming, could be film title with Babs

HammerSmashedFace

doire wrote: »

No point in posting that mate. Bulls think the government have loads of money which will sort out this mess. :rolleyes: They also fail to see that labour are doing everything they can to get in for another term...and to hell with the consequences.

No point u posting it either mate, he has long since been dead, cut off on his prime. Although I do have access to a Ouija Board if you want me to try and contact him and pass on a message.;)

Really2

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

No point u posting it either mate, he has long since been dead, cut off on his prime. Although I do have access to a Ouija Board if you want me to try and contact him and pass on a message.;)

Are you there AD?????

Are you there??????

HSF stirs and in a different voice and mutters something about "peak oil" :D

chucky

Employment rate at 92%
Base rate at 0.5%
Inflation at 2.9%

Fundamentals look fine to me ;)