UK house prices: history suggests it won't be until 2016 that they recover to pre-boo

System

HousingBear wrote: »

Shortage of supply? Tell that to a housebuilder - they're mothballing developments because they don't want to swamp the market and desperately hoping they don't go bust in the meantime.

That's exactly what a shortage of supply is. People refusing to sell as they deem prices too low.

The supply is the number of properties on the market, not the number of properties outright.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Perhaps...though I think the shortage of supply at the moment is relative to previous levels of supply. In terms of inventory necessary to meet current levels of buyers with funding, don't really think there is a shortage. think there's enough inventory to meet current level of demand (tho not enough to meet current levels of desire obv)

themanbearpig

The new HIP rule slowed down supply of new housing overnight in my area. From April, the number of new houses on the market reduced significantly, causing the lack of supply.

A good plan by the government if it was intentionally done, just as demand started to rise during the busy season.

HousingBear

Joeskeppi wrote: »

That's exactly what a shortage of supply is. People refusing to sell as they deem prices too low.

The supply is the number of properties on the market, not the number of properties outright.

Housebuilders are in the business of building houses to sell, not to sit on. Those housebuilders that are sitting on stock are gambling on a rapid recovery. Several have already lost that little game.

However, a "shortage of housing" involves several variables, such as supply, demand, aspiration, ability to pay and lifestyle choices.

If there is a major shift in the perception of housing being a one-way bet to riches, more of the next generation may be a lot happier to rent than to own. Also, with credit significantly more restricted than before, ability to pay has become a very important factor.

Don't forget aspiration. Many people aspired to own a house because it made them richer on the back of HPI. If houses went down in price, can't be used as an ATM and still cost money in upkeep, aspiration could easily change.

Aspiration is very different for different people. One person's dream house is another's ghastly little hovel. Aspiration needs to be tempered with ability to pay.

Anyway, if there is a housing shortage, where are all the unhoused people? They aren't camping out on the streets so they must be living somewhere. If housing is the one-way bet to riches, there will always be demand from investors. However, if those investors get burnt (or even just lightly singed) then this demand can fall.

If there truly is a housing shortage, how come there are nearly 1,000,000 empty houses? Not in the right places, you say? Or is that just aspiration again? I still don't see people who are homeless because there are not enough houses.

I will accept that there is a shortage of affordable housing. Thankfully the HPC is sorting that issue out for now.

the_ash_and_the_oak

HousingBear wrote: »

Housebuilders are in the business of building houses to sell, not to sit on. Those housebuilders that are sitting on stock are gambling on a rapid recovery. Several have already lost that little game.

However, a "shortage of housing" involves several variables, such as supply, demand, aspiration, ability to pay and lifestyle choices.

If there is a major shift in the perception of housing being a one-way bet to riches, more of the next generation may be a lot happier to rent than to own. Also, with credit significantly more restricted than before, ability to pay has become a very important factor.

Don't forget aspiration. Many people aspired to own a house because it made them richer on the back of HPI. If houses went down in price, can't be used as an ATM and still cost money in upkeep, aspiration could easily change.

Aspiration is very different for different people. One person's dream house is another's ghastly little hovel. Aspiration needs to be tempered with ability to pay.

Anyway, if there is a housing shortage, where are all the unhoused people? They aren't camping out on the streets so they must be living somewhere. If housing is the one-way bet to riches, there will always be demand from investors. However, if those investors get burnt (or even just lightly singed) then this demand can fall.

If there truly is a housing shortage, how come there are nearly 1,000,000 empty houses? Not in the right places, you say? Or is that just aspiration again? I still don't see people who are homeless because there are not enough houses.

I will accept that there is a shortage of affordable housing. Thankfully the HPC is sorting that issue out for now.

tbf to joe, pretty sure he was talking about supply of houses available to buy, not supply of houses to live in

wolvoman

ad9898 wrote: »

This is the problem, there is virtually no balance in the media, the surge we have seen has been been built on nothing but this kind of thing, scratch the surface and the fundamentals to support any rise in prices simply is not there.

What the government/media have done over the past few months is collectively stuck their fingers in the public's ears and shouted......... lalalalalalala. It will work in the short term, but in the medium/long term it's likely to make things a whole lot worse as peoples hopes of a recovery are dashed.

And who would provide the balance?
Estate agents, lenders, surveyors, bank analysts, economists? I suspect you'll consider them all to have vested interests?
It's not a political debate.

Seriously what industry do you know of that interviews people from both sides of some divide on the TV or radio? Have you ever seen oil buyers debate with oil sellers?
Have you ever seen 2 aviation analysts interviewed in order to get opposite opinions?

wolvoman

themanbearpig wrote: »

The new HIP rule slowed down supply of new housing overnight in my area. From April, the number of new houses on the market reduced significantly, causing the lack of supply.

A good plan by the government if it was intentionally done, just as demand started to rise during the busy season.

I think you are right - this has had an impact.
As has the lack of forced sales due to low interest rates on SVR and trackers.

carolt

Good article, OP.

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought many people do get caught up in national averages do they

Can you not see that the subject title and your OP quote and comment is directly inferring that historically the national average took x amount of time to recover, therefore it is possible to be the same again?

My message is simple, if you simply look at this data, your local area could and will probably be acting differently to the national average

There's no point in focussing on FTSE 100 shares being up over 2% today if I have shares in ICAP which are down 2.43% or Xstrata which is up 7.13%.

I would need to look at the market I am interested in, i.e. the specific shares or in housing terms, the local market I have a VI in buying / selling in

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I doubt very much all the bulls think we have hit the bottom now.

Well then they are bears not bulls :beer: