UK house prices: history suggests it won't be until 2016 that they recover to pre-boo

Graham_Devon

ISTL.

It is much MUCH easier on forums to talk about something UK wide on an average. That way everyone knows what you are talking about.

I know you and nearly every single other bull wants to concentrate on their very local area, or indeed, another local area doing well. But it causes mass confusion for everyone reading.

When were all spread around the UK, no one knowing where someone else lives, it's far far easier to talk about the average. Your local area is great, but it means NOTHING to the rest of us, only you.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

ISTL.

It is much MUCH easier on forums to talk about something UK wide on an average. That way everyone knows what you are talking about.

I know you and nearly every single other bull wants to concentrate on their very local area, or indeed, another local area doing well. But it causes mass confusion for everyone reading.

ok let's use averages

during the mid 1970s recession house prices did not drop during the recession.

during the early 1980s recession 'back to peak' average prices too less than 12 months. End of Q3 1981 to end of Q2 1982.

is that ok? or would Graham like to discuss something else that suits his viewpoint?

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

is that ok? or would Graham like to discuss something else that suits his viewpoint?

I'd like to discuss today.

I am wondering why you missed the 90's though. :think:

Oh!!!! Thats it, the 90's didnt suit your viewpoint!!!

Shutup chucky!

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'd like to discuss today.

I am wondering why you missed the 90's though. :think:

Oh!!!! Thats it, the 90's didnt suit your viewpoint!!!

oh i see... the thread is about "UK house prices: history suggests it won't be until 2016 that they recover to pre-boo" and you want to discuss 'today'.

Why wouldn't it be my viewpoing?
the 1990s was 7 years - from Q2 1990 to Q2 1997.

my viewpoint is getting bored of your bullsh1t and you struggling to understand basic concepts

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Shutup chucky!

now you cannot claim the innocence ticket of being a 'victim' can you....

what would you like to discuss now Graham?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

"UK house prices: history suggests it won't be until 2016 that they recover to pre-boom levels"

So the more accurate statement would be......

UK House Prices: history suggests that every recession and crash has a different impact on the duration of the recovery, and it may take between one year and ten years for prices to recover to pre-crash levels in real terms adjusted for inflation.;)

Well, that just wouldn't fit in the title line at all....:rolleyes:

System

I think ISTL's (very wise point) was for anyone looking to buy, don't get caught up looking at the national average, check your local area instead.

Common sense yo.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

ISTL.

It is much MUCH easier on forums to talk about something UK wide on an average. That way everyone knows what you are talking about.

I know you and nearly every single other bull wants to concentrate on their very local area, or indeed, another local area doing well. But it causes mass confusion for everyone reading.

When were all spread around the UK, no one knowing where someone else lives, it's far far easier to talk about the average. Your local area is great, but it means NOTHING to the rest of us, only you.

I keep harking on about local areas because that does affect absolutely everyone on here.

It's simply that everyones local area is different.

To clarify, the confusion is advice given relating to UK averages, when that will quite clearly be unlikely to be happening to each and every poster in their local area.

My advice to everyone is to look at their local area, do the market research and make a decision based on those facts.

If your area is going down and you believe the local market to continue going down, by all means dont buy, save more etc

You may likely find that your local area is not reacting like the UK average (big area, different economics throughout) and could be operating in a worse or better condition.

I have never bought property having looked at UK average market research. Far better to be focussed on the local market data

IveSeenTheLight

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I think ISTL's (very wise point) was for anyone looking to buy, don't get caught up looking at the national average, check your local area instead.

Common sense yo.

:T:T:T:T:T

Exactly, some people just dont understand this simple message

:T:T:T:T:T

ad9898_3

I wouldn't have thought many people do get caught up in national averages do they ?, the national average is down, and the 3 month, 6 month, 12 month average in my area is also down, with the best selling season now at an end, the ramping didn't do much for my area, which is a good thing. Promises made with no fundamentals behind them are worse than no promises made at all, as we shall see over the next 2 years.

HousingBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Last time around there was certainly not the shortage of supply, QE, lowest rates in history, etc, that we see today, all of which could spur recovery far faster than last time.

This crash does seem to have been time compressed so far. I see no reason why the recovery would not be time compressed as well, given all the external factors at play such as low rates, QE, population growth, and a more severe (and getting worse) underlying shortage of housing than last time.

Shortage of supply? Tell that to a housebuilder - they're mothballing developments because they don't want to swamp the market and desperately hoping they don't go bust in the meantime. In other news, houses are simply languishing on Rightmove for ages, some for 18 months now (i.e. when beerhunter created PropertyBee). There is also considerable pent-up supply now - people are renting out there houses instead of selling - more accidental landlords, more downward pressure on rents.

No reason why the recovery should not be compressed? So a record crash results in a record rise, does it? Erm - care to point to any asset class where that has happened?

As for QE enabling the recovery - this is a massive, one-way unhedged bet on the economy recovering in time before the stimulus taps are turned off. They are betting the farm on things getting better - our children and your grandchildren will be paying for this madness and you think that's good news?

Lowest rates in history - that's the base rate only. Actual rates that people pay are creeping back up again. And the lucky ones who had BOE trackers - great, unless they had lifetime trackers, remortgage time will come around. And the BOE may still fail to hold interest rates down, despite what they say.

Time for a MSE "smiley" again.

:eek:

But then again, I'm just a moany old doommonger. I'm sure someone will trot out the old red herring of not having a house, being jealous, blah blah.