Swine 'flu - What economic impact?

vivatifosi

amcluesent wrote: »

"Swine flu screening at UK airports amid fear that NHS could be overwhelmed

NHS intensive care services could be overwhelmed by a huge rise in swine flu cases, researchers have warned, as Britain’s port authorities started screening incoming passengers for the first time.

I honestly don't get why they want to do this. If they were going to, it should have happened when the first cases in Mexico and the US were reported. But for short haul flights in Europe or port trips across the channel now, what's the point? We've got more cases by a substantial margin than any country in continental Europe.

amcluesent wrote: »

Will secret triage procedures need to be introduced, so that 'horribly' white men over fifty are marked for palliative care only as the few intensive care and high-dependency beds are allocated to the young and 'ethics'? "They've had a good innings..."

But the statistics thus far show that very few of these beds are likely to be needed by 'horribly' white men over fifty, as you aren't kids, can't be pregnant, etc... so are less likely to need them (nothing to do with race). Shouldn't you be happy at that?

The article below, written by a Professor looking at public perceptions of risk for Cambridge University points out a different issue too... that health authorities need to plan for the worst, but in doing so, they have to plan for a reality where there is unlikely to be a vaccine.

....It is hardly surprising that doctors are drawing up emergency plans to prevent intensive care being overwhelmed, and hospitals are wondering what to do when staff cannot or will not come to work.

But this gloomy projection assumes that we do nothing. In fact, the impressive effort to produce a vaccine is yielding results and the Department of Health plans to have every child between 3 and 16 vaccinated against the current strain of swine flu by Christmas.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6717074.ece


Yes, you may be "discriminated against" if the vaccines go to those who need it most first (children, asthmatics, pregnant women, those with underlying health disorders etc), but if that's the case, they also won't be a draw on the intensive care beds you are concerned about.

chewmylegoff

pretty sure the horribly white men over 50 who run the country aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot any time soon.

amcluesent

Hospitals are drawing up emergency plans for dealing with a shortage of midwives.

Home births would be refused and planned caesarean sections abandoned if there were not enough staff to carry them out safely. Ante-natal tests to check the health of the expectant mother and check for foetal abnormalities could be delayed, or even stopped, under separate guidance being agreed by medical experts.

The Government has drawn up planning assumptions which suggest that one in three people may develop swine flu this winter. The calculation would amount to 180,000 infections among pregnant women in the first 15 weeks of an epidemic.

bendix

God you are a doom-monger amclueless . . . .

Try reading decent publications. There is an interesting piece in this week's Economist about just this subject, where they point out that research shows the economic impact of even the 1918 pandemic was neglible, and even most of that could be attributed to the after effects of ww1. Similar pandemics since then had no impact at all.

Swine flu, my a**e. I am tired of all these pandemics which seem to occur every two years, and then disappear.

People dying of flu is not that unusual you know.

themanbearpig

*puts on tin foil hat*

Just watched V for vendetta last night again, and noticed that they used a pandemic as a fear tactic to retain control over the population.
Maybe our government create these pandemics in times when they think the population may revolt, as a way to create the illusions that we need the them as a government (NHS pandemic call lines, tamiflu, vaccines etc), or we die.

sabretoothtigger

Another tinhat theory would be they are an offshoot of bio warfare labs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Trips

baileysbattlebus

themanbearpig wrote: »

*puts on tin foil hat*

Just watched V for vendetta last night again, and noticed that they used a pandemic as a fear tactic to retain control over the population.
Maybe our government create these pandemics in times when they think the population may revolt, as a way to create the illusions that we need the them as a government (NHS pandemic call lines, tamiflu, vaccines etc), or we die.

Is that just our government or is it collective governments?

We were in the US last month and there is a theory there that the virus was created by a pharma company.

Also in the US if you are adversely affected or killed by the vaccine the pharma company cannot be sued. I'm not sure about here.

One thing is for certain the pharma companies will benefit hugely from all of this - it must seem like Christmas.

amcluesent

>*puts on tin foil hat*<

Seriously, it's quite likely that in his No.10 bunker, the clinically deranged Clown is brooding how use the Civil Contingency Act(*) to seize enabling powers that include suspending habeas corpus and halting elections during the 'emergency'.

Could well be that swine flu would provide the excuse Clown needs to rule by executive diktat as he's always dreamed of.

(*) NB The bizzies are empowered to shoot anyone who disobeys their orders so now they wouldn't even have to pretend the deceased made a 'sudden movement'

lostinrates

Well, wastalking to this today with a reasonably large mainly London based employer, with in house doctors.

Staff have been going off work at 4-5 a day. The early cases were confirmed by doctors (and later confirmed from labs), and some still are seeing the work doctors before being sent home (dedication, eh?). Most now are calling in and having telephone diagnoses either from the in house doctors or having said thy have spoken with own GPs. So, its fair to assume quite a large percentage of these people really do have flu. And yes, its puting pressure on certain aspects.

The problem is that the outbreaks hit areas where people work together (obviously) leaving some key areas understaffed and under pressure.

Generali

Economic impact of swine 'flu?

Average time off = a week perhaps. If everyone gets it (which they won't) then perhaps 2% off GDP due to absenteeism.

You'd need deaths of 100,000+ for them to have any noticeable impact on GDP. No sign of anything like that happening yet.