UK Property to HALVE Between Now and July 29, 2010

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They run, because they cannot be disputed.

they are disputed every day and get quite boring because we're still waiting for Britain to become bankrupt, The Pound to crash and be worth less than the Euro, house prices to drop 70%, unemployment to hit 25%, the current economic climate is a Depression not a Recession and repossessions to hit 20% of house in the UK.

just because people claim and write about these things on this and other forums it doesn't mean they will happen - it does not mean that they will happen in reality.
sorry to upset the fantasy world that you live in

tommy75

Clueless arn't they. Everybody knows houses will be at least 10 times average wage over then next 10 years. It even says it here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article1896229.ece

Taken from report:

1. Poverty for nearly all living North of London.

2. Even more run down areas than pre 2009.

3. Massive Increases in drug use and violence throughout UK. Only safe people are the 'BTL Pimps' who run the country.

4. BTLers and bankers only people able to afford to leave the country to stay at they 2nd or 3rd retirment homes dependent on how many 3 bed terrace houses they bought for 15k in 1999.

5. BTLers let out houses surrounded in electric fences to stop ordinary folk getting out.

6. Townies and Chavs mixing genes to create the ultimate lowest form of humanity to take over the UK when all the BTLers die.

7. End of the world in some form or other.

treliac

tommy75 wrote: »

Clueless arn't they. Everybody knows houses will be at least 10 times average wage over then next 10 years. It even says it here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article1896229.ece

Taken from report: ..........

You've given an interesting analysis of that report, unless there's a chunk missing from your link!

It is 2 years old you know. We've seen how the correction is taking shape and it's certainly not going along the lines of 10 x salary multiples, heaven forbid.

Ah well, time for a cup of tea.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

treliac wrote: »

You've given an interesting analysis of that report, unless there's a chunk missing from your link!

It is 2 years old you know. We've seen how the correction is taking shape and it's certainly not going along the lines of 10 x salary multiples, heaven forbid.

Ah well, time for a cup of tea.

There is little doubt that we will see 10 times multiples next time round, or at least, we will see prices reach 30% higher against wages than we did last time.

However in reality, for actual house buyers (instead of the general population that the article references), this will mean average multiples of 4.75 times instead of around 3.25 times income at peak, and 2.97 times income today.;)

carolt

You are such a joker, Hamish.

Ah well, always good to have one around to keep us amused.

Still wiping away the tears of laughter.

My, but this thread is actually beginning to make my marking stack look interesting. :eek:

carolt

tommy75 wrote: »

Clueless arn't they. Everybody knows houses will be at least 10 times average wage over then next 10 years. It even says it here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article1896229.ece

Great find.

I've bookmarked this one to keep for a good laugh - written more or less at peak, it's already remarkable quaint, isn't it?

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

they are disputed every day and get quite boring because we're still waiting for Britain to become bankrupt, The Pound to crash and be worth less than the Euro, house prices to drop 70%, unemployment to hit 25%, the current economic climate is a Depression not a Recession and repossessions to hit 20% of house in the UK.

just because people claim and write about these things on this and other forums it doesn't mean they will happen - it does not mean that they will happen in reality.
sorry to upset the fantasy world that you live in

As far as I'm aware, these are not the sort of arguments that are on every thread and talked about every day, which is what was stated.

Neither were your extremes used in this article.

These are the extremes of such situations.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There is little doubt that we will see 10 times multiples next time round, or at least, we will see prices reach 30% higher against wages than we did last time.

However in reality, for actual house buyers (instead of the general population that the article references), this will mean average multiples of 4.75 times instead of around 3.25 times income at peak, and 2.97 times income today.;)

Y'know what, I think you would make some damn good arguments from a bullish point of view. It's a shame you choose to favour extremes over reality to make your points.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Y'know what, I think you would make some damn good arguments from a bullish point of view. It's a shame you choose to favour extremes over reality to make your points.

The extremes illustrate the dichotomy that exists within the statistics better than anything else.

Bears rightly point out prices reached 7 times earnings....... Which can be done when you include the earnings of the very lowest paid in society, who will never be in a position to buy a house, and never have been.

Bulls rightly point out that averages of actual buyers never crossed 3.5 times even at peak. And that the most consistent and longest running record of average multiples is the Halifax, which also shows todays prices are in line with long term averages.

There are lies, damn lies, and house price statistics. Pointing out the extremes, on both sides, is key to countering the opposition.

If you want the truth, I'll give it to you, but you may not like it and it won't lead to an entertaining debate....

mewbie_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

dichotomy corner...

Does that mean that the recent Bubble wasn't really a bubble at all? That house prices are perfectly reasonable? I'm confused, because I thought FTB's gave up buying about six years ago and it was only the laxity of credit and the BTL's snapping up overpriced property out of mewed equity that kept the whole charade going.

Do you honestly believe that housing is now fairly priced Mr. McTavish?