Just 7 houses sold in the whole of chester in may

Andrew64

Now it's clear how people can say that prices are rising! Volumes are so low that selling just a few makes the price jump! Makes you wonder about the question in the first post - how can estate agents survive?

I've just checked on my place - a town in Cambridgeshire. Usually the average number of sales per month is about 20, but in May it tanked to just 2!

the_ash_and_the_oak

StevieJ wrote: »

I thought that house prices were supposed to tank on low sales as these would mainly be forced sales sent to auction e.g. divorce,death etc.

Not really feeling this. Think it was dopester that was saying this also but didn't really think it was a particularly good theory. Measures have been put in place to prevent forced sales and keep people in their homes as much as possible. This has worked, and if everyone is going to stay put for the rest of their lives, then the crash will be averted (at least until they die)

But the driver for the next stage of the crash is not from the weaknesses of current owners needing to sell, it will be from the weaknesses of future buyers unable to secure the funding. While present owners are benefitting from lower rates etc prices will remain stable, and houses will not sell - no need to sell - no ability to buy. It is only when transactions rise, and people begin to sell for other reasons, that price falls can resume with any seriousness. This may not be for a while, and it may be a protracted process.

Don't really feel any of this is particularly unexpected tbh

andygb

There are next to no private sales in my area (North/Mid Kent), but sales through auction are steady. The auction sales however, are showing a huge fall in prices, compared with the highs of November 2007. Look at "Clive Emson Auction" for an idea. Compare the auction prices with actual sale prices for any given street.
The idea that house prices are rising and sales improving is pure fantasy.

GDB2222

I never could see the point in the previous house price crash of the government letting people be repossessed and then the govt having to support them in rented acccommodation. It seems far more logical to provide support to keep them in their own homes.

Nevertheless, there are a large number of forced transactions each year just due to people dying. Deaths = 510k a year in England + Wales. If we assume 70% home-ownership and most people in couples then
Deaths -> 70% of 510k/2 = 180k properties a year to sell

That's a fairly high proportion of the 500k or so annual transactions. Add in divorce and partnership splits, people having to move home for their jobs or family reasons, plus the 70k repos expected this year, and it looks like well over half of sales are on a forced sale basis.

It's astonishing that prices are holding up so well in these circumstances.

alared

Is there a site that shows Scottish prices?

kennyboy66_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Not really feeling this. Think it was dopester that was saying this also but didn't really think it was a particularly good theory. Measures have been put in place to prevent forced sales and keep people in their homes as much as possible. This has worked, and if everyone is going to stay put for the rest of their lives, then the crash will be averted (at least until they die)

What measures have been put in to stop people dying and getting divorced ?

I must have missed them, but seemingly there is no end to Peter Mandlesons magical powers.

chucky

michaels wrote: »

I would be dubious about the data - anyone really think May has been 3 times worse than April - didn't think so - I suspect that not all the data is in yet for May - happy to be proved wrong but that would be my take at the moment.

very dubious figures

the_ash_and_the_oak

kennyboy66 wrote: »

What measures have been put in to stop people dying and getting divorced ?

I must have missed them, but seemingly there is no end to Peter Mandlesons magical powers.

unaware of any tbh. I'm only really aware of a pretty significant lowering of rates, and of banks fairly reluctant to reposess. Pretty sure death and divorce not beaten yet, but kinda feeling repossessions been hugely reduced as a factor IMO

IveSeenTheLight

alared wrote: »

Is there a site that shows Scottish prices?

Yes, the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency

Jan 2009 = http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan_09.pdf

Feb 2009 = http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_feb_09.pdf

Mar 2009 = http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_mar_09.pdf

April 2009 = http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_apr_09.pdf

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

InSeems to me the places with the biggest falls are those that are selling decent volumes still....where I live is a perfect example of this. Still plenty of sales here, but prices are falling, down 1.2% average last month.

All the local areas some people like to tell us to look at as they are rising (aberdeen, merthr etc) have very low sales volumes, which is always ignored.

When you compare Aberdeen against Devon, per population, Aberdeen sold twice as many homes as Devon.
I also see that Devon has the highest percentage of population that is retired.

I understand and agree low sales will have an affect, as will low supply.

Simply put however, it's not simple to look at simple sales figures between two areas unless you understand the background for these areas i.e. number of properties for sale, population figures, percentage of retired people.