At what figure do YOU think the average house price will hit rock bottom ?

nearlynew

Kev09 wrote: »

3.5 x income is joke for house price valuations! two things influence prices, supply and demand! Now demand is influenced by the availabilty of credit which is where incomes come in, but lots of other factors influence this too like property programmes hyping up the market or the fundemental shift in viewpoint that it is essential now to be a worthwhile human being you have to own your own home.

A better way than 3.5x income to value a house would be adding up all the little bricks, all the wood etc and calculating how much it would cost the average brickies to build it and trust me this is a sh*t valuation method.

Incomes and house need not have any relation at all to each other!!

What a load of !!!!!!.

Supply and demand?

Watching property !!!!!! can make up the shortfall from falling incomes/lack of credit and allow high demand to continue?

Incomes and house prices need not have any relation to each other?

What are you on about?

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The ONS chart, the one on Statistics covers benefits, its why it has a dark blue and light blue column.

If you believe the average working family has an income of 40-41k can you please back this up with facts? There are plenty of websites detailing averages wages.

Also, the top graph is 2006/7.

To me, at least, if we are going to say "2 people should be needed to buy a house", you cannot then rely on statistics based on the average wage of a male and female.

You need to look at household income. It is FAR easier for someone without a family to get a higher wage, FAR easier for them to both work full time etc, FAR easier for them to get jobs starting at 8, finishing at 6.

It is totally unfair to in one sentence say 2 people should be needed to buy a house, and then use figures which include professional singles to back up your idea of the high average house prices should be at.

You can get to that £40k figure by simply taking a FT working male average and a PT working female from that table even out of London. This scenario would represent the typical family with 2 kids i think you would agree?

I do believe that it is this kind of scenario that is needed to buy an average home and not that of a singular average income. Someone on an average £26k should be able to buy a home, yes i agree, but a 3 bed SD average family home?

I just feel that if housing was priced so cheaply as 3.5 x £26k for an average home then greed comes into it and people buy multiple homes.

As to your pension provision dig, i wont bite.

bluey890

nearlynew wrote: »

What a load of !!!!!!.

Supply and demand?

Watching property !!!!!! can make up the shortfall from falling incomes/lack of credit and allow high demand to continue?

Incomes and house prices need not have any relation to each other?

What are you on about?

Supply and Demand does decide the price of things...

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Also, worth looking at whats actually happening to average incomes...



The chart shows pay growth, and it's heading downwards, which means our income is in relative terms, going down too.

We will see come Nov 2009 when they release their figures once again. I suspect it will drop down by around £1k to around £25k but not much more than that.

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

You can get to that £40k figure by simply taking a FT working male average and a PT working female from that table even out of London. This scenario would represent the typical family with 2 kids i think you would agree?

Yes, I agree, you can. But what the hell is the point in doing that when we have the figures right in front of us, from the ONS? Why pick the MEAN wage and then say "well theres your average" when quite clearly, it's not!

Why not look at a survey of ACTUAL figures based on every UK household, instead of just taking two mean averages and implying that the average family in the UK is also working for the mean average wages.

Why can we not just use actual facts instead of flitting around?

I do believe that it is this kind of scenario that is needed to buy an average home and not that of a singular average income. Someone on an average £26k should be able to buy a home, yes i agree, but a 3 bed SD average family home?

Just a home would be a start. And what do you suggest for single people? Cardboard box? Just rent? They shouldnt be allowed to own a home just because they have no partner unless they are on around 45k a year themselves?

I just feel that if housing was priced so cheaply as 3.5 x £26k for an average home then greed comes into it and people buy multiple homes.

As to your pension provision dig, i wont bite.

Says you, who wants house prices to increase so he can provide himself with a pension fom the profits! :rotfl:

Seriously, why can we not use proper facts? Facts we are able to link to? Facts from proper sources? Is it simply because they do not suit? Why then after finding suitable figures for your VI use the flawed mean wage when we know full well this is NOT what the average family earn, the median is?

Seriously, please help me out here, as I'm starting to believe bulls seriously have no idea what they are on about and are simply making things up to suit to desperately cling on to their wealth. I haven't yet found one single bull who has not bought into property.

As for the "income has no relevance on prices", why is it the first thing I'm asked when buying a place is "how much do you earn". Why is it that it's been based on this for all of known history!?

nearlynew

bluey890 wrote: »

Supply and Demand does decide the price of things...

In a properly fuctioning market, yes.

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

Supply and Demand does decide the price of things...

Indeed it does, however without the funding required to support 70,000 + approvals which would be needed to stablise the market, Supply and Demand, turns into Supply and Desire, which aren't the same thing.

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, I agree, you can. But what the hell is the point in doing that when we have the figures right in front of us, from the ONS? Why pick the MEAN wage and then say "well theres your average" when quite clearly, it's not!

Why not look at a survey of ACTUAL figures based on every UK household, instead of just taking two mean averages and implying that the average family in the UK is also working for the mean average wages.

Why can we not just use actual facts instead of flitting around?

Just a home would be a start. And what do you suggest for single people? Cardboard box? Just rent? They shouldnt be allowed to own a home just because they have no partner unless they are on around 45k a year themselves?

Says you, who wants house prices to increase so he can provide himself with a pension fom the profits! :rotfl:

Seriously, why can we not use proper facts? Facts we are able to link to? Facts from proper sources? Is it simply because they do not suit? Why then after finding suitable figures for your VI use the flawed mean wage when we know full well this is NOT what the average family earn, the median is?

Seriously, please help me out here, as I'm starting to believe bulls seriously have no idea what they are on about and are simply making things up to suit to desperately cling on to their wealth. I haven't yet found one single bull who has not bought into property.

As for the "income has no relevance on prices", why is it the first thing I'm asked when buying a place is "how much do you earn". Why is it that it's been based on this for all of known history!?

What on earth are you harping on about now Graham? Its not me using dated figures:rolleyes: The figures i am using are government statistics of nearly 30,000,000 yes 30,000,000 samples.

You cannot get a clearer picture than that:p

There is a median table in there for you to have a look at. Dont you have excel to look at it as you are just clearly ignoring it even though its factual evidence of very recent data on earnings

I said the average earnings to average house price link should not be made as it assumes that the average wage should be enough to be able to buy the average house which is complete and utter nonsense. It should be enough to buy a 1 or 2 bed flat. To buy an average house you need a household income, i.e joint income.

Im obviously talking to a brick wall here Graham, its your postings that are so rambled and muddled that 1 minute you think the world is ending only for the next is to admit that things are not that bad.

House price stagnation over the last 5mths for a start. im sure you were 1 of the 2009 25% down crew. how times have changed, i wont rub it in:p

Oh recession is over, and oh house prices are more expensive now than in Dec 2008. Oh unemployment figures released were lower than expected. How are you managing to sleep at night Graham with all this good bull news?

Night Graham.

Graham_Devon

I give up.

You are not answering the questions. 30m samples means nothing, when we have samples of EVERYONE.

Carry on picking the information which suits, instead of using the actual information. But you really need to get a grip that you ARE picking what suits. You even say you cannot get a clearer sample, when the sample of EVERYONE is on the last page.

We know the data is out of date, but most of us can get our head around that one and realise wages have not jumped over a third in 3 years.

Enjoy yourself. Your not talking to a brick wall, I have asked questions, you just have not responded other than to tell me YOUR preferred figures say X and Y and added in some assumptions.

mitchaa wrote: »

Oh recession is over

No it isn't.

and oh house prices are more expensive now than in Dec 2008

But less than November 2008 and October 2008, and September 2008 and.....

Oh unemployment figures released were lower than expected.

No they are not. The claimant figure was lower than expected.

How are you managing to sleep at night Graham with all this good bull news?

Good bull news!? LOL. It's not even correct! As I say, you keep making !!!!!! up.

bluey890

ad9898 wrote: »

Indeed it does, however without the funding required to support 70,000 + approvals which would be needed to stablise the market, Supply and Demand, turns into Supply and Desire, which aren't the same thing.

So demand is only being held back by access to credit. Hence when credit conditions pick up, there's going to be lots of people looking to buy a home.

In the meantime BTL landlords have a good cashflow, and are saving a fair amount (probably more than renters), so might be in a better position to buy.

Many MPs are BTL landlords, so I can't see govt legislation coming into play.