At what figure do YOU think the average house price will hit rock bottom ?

Thrugelmir

mitchaa wrote: »

The £150k to £500k was just an example.

However, i do suspect if i carried out a little research over the last 50yrs at each yearly increment with 25yr spacings, i would think a 233% difference to be quite possible;) My folks bought their house for £40k in 1987 and 22yrs later it's valued at around £350k today. I make that out around an 800% increase, so my 233% looks a bit conservative.

Works out at just less than 5% pa, which i would say is more than attainable. Perhaps not this year, or even next but come 2011, we may well see 5-10% pa growth in the housing market. In some of the boom years we were experiencing 15-20% in single years so average of 5% over 25yrs i dont find illusory No.

I have a FSP already in place that will pay 40/60th of my final salary but who knows what's round the corner, that could easily be snatched away from me.

Housing over the long run is always going to be a good investment.

ISTL....I gave up on Graham last night. I think he had 1 too many as he was not making much sense at all. (I dont think he has Excel to view the government data, hence why he keeps harping on about that old BBC article)

Are you sure about your dates and figures? I bought a new well built semi detached house ( local builder) in Thatcham Berkshire in 1984 for £34k. I doubt whether it'd be worth 800% more! As thats £272k in todays value. You may well be correct but is it reflective of the entire market?

If you think the boom years were normal then you need to fully understand the drivers for the credit crisis.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I
I think that Britain has a desire to be a home owner which is far greater than seen in other economies. This increase demand will increase house prices. Maybe there needs to be a realisation that not everyone can afford to buy and maybe legislation and the government needs to consider change to make the desire to own less and non homeowners more secure.
QUOTE]

The market itself will self correct. Unlike the Hunt brothers who attempted to control the silver market by buying up all or Porsche gaining control of VW by buying shares when traders were shorting stock. The residential property market is too fragmented. No one individual can control it as such.

The next Government could easily increase Capital Gains tax on second homes for example to avoid speculation on residential property. I would add a caveat of a reduced rate for property held and owned for 10 years. As rental property does provide a social service.

lostinrates

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Are you sure about your dates and figures? I bought a new well built semi detached house ( local builder) in Thatcham Berkshire in 1984 for £34k. I doubt whether it'd be worth 800% more! As thats £272k in .

http://http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1332&sortByPriceDescending=false&minBedrooms=3&displayPropertyType=houses&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=semidetachedhouses&oldDisplayPropertyType=houses&oldSecondaryDisplayPropertyType=semidetachedhouses

You're right. I shall not work out the ercentage increase though

cootambear

Almost amazingly, despite rising unemployment and a dearth of low money down mortgages, prices are starting to rise. Once the mortgage co.s are confident that prices have no sharp falls in the horizon, the floodgates will open. FWIW I predict flat/small rises for 12 months followed by a surge.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

but then go on to predict what will be in the next budget :rotfl:

Don't publicise this please. I'm supposed to keep our taxation policy under wraps until the election is announced.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The market itself will self correct......
The residential property market is too fragmented. No one individual can control it as such.

The next Government could easily increase Capital Gains tax on second homes for example to avoid speculation on residential property. I would add a caveat of a reduced rate for property held and owned for 10 years. As rental property does provide a social service.

Agreed, the market will correct itself (pertaining to the conditions it finds itself in) amd the next government COULD increase capital gains.
One question would be if the MP's themselves have a personal vested interest in doing so, in which case the MAY not

Interesting that you would add a caveat, it certainly would make an incentive for me as a LL to hold onto my properties for longer

Thrugelmir

cootambear wrote: »

Almost amazingly, despite rising unemployment and a dearth of low money down mortgages, prices are starting to rise. Once the mortgage co.s are confident that prices have no sharp falls in the horizon, the floodgates will open. FWIW I predict flat/small rises for 12 months followed by a surge.

Lending policy is unlikely to change. Why would it? The banks can lend at a profitable level without risk.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Agreed, the market will correct itself (pertaining to the conditions it finds itself in) amd the next government COULD increase capital gains.
One question would be if the MP's themselves have a personal vested interest in doing so, in which case the MAY not

Interesting that you would add a caveat, it certainly would make an incentive for me as a LL to hold onto my properties for longer

I'm sure all the political parties are working on policies in this area ready for the election. The next Government has to make housing "affordable" or at least restrain the excessess.

Interesting in Ireland that first time buyers receive an element of tax relief , like the old MIRAS system here. Also that only 75% of interest incurred is offsetable against rental income for tax purposes.

We all know that taxation has to increase in the future. This may well impact greatly on the viability of leveraged BTL as an investment, as opposed to outright purchase.

ad9898_3

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Full Time Male Mean Average = £35,122 - 2009 wage

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Full Time Male Mean Average = £26,841-2001 wage

So what we see here is the average male wage increasing by just over 30%, yet in the same time period average house prices went from approx 88k to 178k in the same time period, this is clearly and has proved to be unsustainable.

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

So what we see here is the average male wage increasing by just over 30%, yet in the same time period average house prices went from approx 88k to 178k in the same time period, this is clearly and has proved to be unsustainable.

To clarify, the £88k you refer to is from Jan 01 according to the LR data.
As the earnings is monitored at the end of the year, you would be more accurate using Decembers 01's LR figures which is £97k

Incidently: -
The Female Full time wage increased 34.26% in the same timeframe
The Female Part time wage increased 49.54% in the same timeframe
The Male Part Time wage increases 51.44% in the same timeframe

It would appear that in order for house prices to drop in line with what wage increases have done during this time, then there is probably another £10k-£15k (10%) to drop.
IF it was to correct to that timeline