Recession Over - 1 Month to go??

Graham_Devon

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Then the economists will ask how we escaped so quickly. And the conclusion they will come to will be the one that so many have already stated publicly - that Brown was right. The next obvious question will be how did the Tories get it so very wrong in opposing all the measures that have now been proven so right? The point was made repeatedly at the time that they ran contrary to most economists and every other government - their utter ineptitude will come under the most severe scrutiny as their apparent wish to prolong the recession for political ends (to destroy the government and pave the way for all those public service cuts they like) comes under question.

We all saw how effective Brown was when the economy was the only issue that mattered - I can see how being proven right would once again wake him up from his stupor.

So in this scenario - economy recovering, Brown rejuvenated and proven right, Tories on the back foot looking like wreckers - things could get very very interesting. The Tories have what on paper would be an unstoppable lead if times were normal. But with the polls so volatile these last few years all things could remain possible. If, IF, this think tank has it right as soften it does.

Just one minor point.

If we, on here, can see that it isn't brown thats done this, but a marginal lowering in the decline of GDP figures, I very highly doubt economists will be saying" !!!!!! is this!! Hail brown, our saviour, boo hiss the tories who didnt do anything though they couldnt as they were not in power"

I'm sure economists would have the foresight to see were still declining at around 1.8%.

However, I do see what we are in for from the labour activists

TDS_2

By the official definition, yes, it does appear that we may be out of 'recession' a lot sooner than predicted.

My concern is that this is a debt fuelled recovery, and that we may well have a second dip going into late 2010 / 2011. Look at the context of the current 'recovery'. We have interest rates artificially low, and vast amounts of QE. Both these crutches will have to be taken away in due course, and I just don't see how this can be done without more pain being felt.

Maybe it will just be that the removal of these stimuli stunts growth for a few years, without further contraction. Whichever way you look at it, though, the current recovery definitely does not mean happy days are here again.

TDS_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

However, I do see what we are in for from the labour activists

I can see it now. Labour save the economy (on another mountain of debt), then when Conservatives take power, the crutches have to be removed sending us into another recession (or a period of v. low growth).

"If only Labour were still in power..."

GracieP

StevieJ wrote: »

I don't know if you have watching but it hasn't done so bad recently If you had stuck you STR pot in at the beginning of March you would be doing very nicely thankyou, with the added benefit of a much stronger Stg v Euro. :beer:

I know, my virtual account has a couple of a million in it. I'm not much of a gambler. I prefer to make a little money that I'm more sure of than take a big risk in order to make a lot.

StevieJ wrote: »

Just one point The UK stock market is not dependent on the UK economy.

No but there are a lot of shares that are worth more than their current valuation but have been hit hard fear. If the recession was to really end, sentiment would switch.

Cannon_Fodder

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

When is the June GDP figure released...

1st quarter's figure was released 22nd May, so presume around same time in July for second quarter.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192