Recession Over - 1 Month to go??

tomterm8

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If GDP is revised to -2.2%, and we got another 0.1% growth in May, that means we would be "growing" at -1.8%.

Have I got this right? In other words, negative growth would mean growth?

I'm not denying it's growth, in a funny way, nor am I denying thats the basis for calling the end of a recession, but, well, erm how?

I thought you needed 2 quarters of growth to come out of a recession, just as you need it to go in?

Does that mean then, that if this coming quarter we see 0.2% growth or whatever, and the quarter after that we see a further 1% fall, the rules mean, that the 0.2% growth (though still negative) would mean that we are still out of recession?

Who made those rules?!

I'm pretty sure that in the both the 1980's and 1990's recession there were a couple of odd quarters, where the economy "grew" a few tenths of a percent on an inventory boost, and then went right back to shrinking.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

all these things will go back up in price and because the price was so low and it then goes up to "2007 prices" the hyper-inflation nutters will be out in force claiming they were right all along and had predicted it :cool:

So low compared to what?

Compare food prices to 2004 for instance.

Compare fuel prices to 2004.

Compare electricity / gas prices to 2004.

Compare housing costs to 2004.

Compare travel costs to 2004.

I'm only talking five years ago.

RobertoMoir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Only trouble is, your then attacked as a negative bear! We could have 0.01% better results, and recession over.

Bloody brilliant news for Gordon.

I'm sure it'll be very comforting to people still to lose their jobs to know that they lost them as part of an "economic downturn" rather than due to recession.

Rochdale_Pioneers

A couple of points about recession ending and percentages. Even if we do come out in Q2 is still likely that the annualised figure will be negative - a sharp decline followed by gradual recovery will still show a decline on last 52 weeks.

Anyway, we don't know that it will happen yet or officially be called. But you have to admit if it happens, IF, then its an absolute bomb going off politically. We will have the UK going into recession later than so may other nations and coming out so much quicker. All of the calculations about relative position vs others, and tax revenue forecasts and debt levels will have to be revised, derailing or destroying so many political narratives applied to the recession.

Then the economists will ask how we escaped so quickly. And the conclusion they will come to will be the one that so many have already stated publicly - that Brown was right. The next obvious question will be how did the Tories get it so very wrong in opposing all the measures that have now been proven so right? The point was made repeatedly at the time that they ran contrary to most economists and every other government - their utter ineptitude will come under the most severe scrutiny as their apparent wish to prolong the recession for political ends (to destroy the government and pave the way for all those public service cuts they like) comes under question.

We all saw how effective Brown was when the economy was the only issue that mattered - I can see how being proven right would once again wake him up from his stupor.

So in this scenario - economy recovering, Brown rejuvenated and proven right, Tories on the back foot looking like wreckers - things could get very very interesting. The Tories have what on paper would be an unstoppable lead if times were normal. But with the polls so volatile these last few years all things could remain possible. If, IF, this think tank has it right as soften it does.

1echidna

Growth of say 0.1% is a hell of a lot better than continuing falls of say 1% which many had been predicting. The markets seem to be welcoming it, I wonder why many here cannot, or are they so wrapped up in wanting to see the Conservatives in power that they have a death wish for the economy.

Thrugelmir

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

A couple of points about recession ending and percentages. Even if we do come out in Q2 is still likely that the annualised figure will be negative - a sharp decline followed by gradual recovery will still show a decline on last 52 weeks.

Anyway, we don't know that it will happen yet or officially be called. But you have to admit if it happens, IF, then its an absolute bomb going off politically. We will have the UK going into recession later than so may other nations and coming out so much quicker. All of the calculations about relative position vs others, and tax revenue forecasts and debt levels will have to be revised, derailing or destroying so many political narratives applied to the recession.

Then the economists will ask how we escaped so quickly. And the conclusion they will come to will be the one that so many have already stated publicly - that Brown was right. The next obvious question will be how did the Tories get it so very wrong in opposing all the measures that have now been proven so right? The point was made repeatedly at the time that they ran contrary to most economists and every other government - their utter ineptitude will come under the most severe scrutiny as their apparent wish to prolong the recession for political ends (to destroy the government and pave the way for all those public service cuts they like) comes under question.

We all saw how effective Brown was when the economy was the only issue that mattered - I can see how being proven right would once again wake him up from his stupor.

So in this scenario - economy recovering, Brown rejuvenated and proven right, Tories on the back foot looking like wreckers - things could get very very interesting. The Tories have what on paper would be an unstoppable lead if times were normal. But with the polls so volatile these last few years all things could remain possible. If, IF, this think tank has it right as soften it does.

Sorry to burst your ballon. But whether we are technically in recession or not. The forecast budget deficit and tax revenues aren't going to change significantly in the short term.

Is your post based on official spin from Head Office ?

As it doesn't wash I'm afraid to say.

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Sorry to burst your ballon. But whether we are technically in recession or not. The forecast budget deficit and tax revenues aren't going to change significantly in the short term.

Is your post based on official spin from Head Office ?

As it doesn't wash I'm afraid to say.

Then again most of you said that we would not see a positive quarter until next year at the earliest So we will wait and see thankyou,

GracieP

1echidna wrote: »

The markets seem to be welcoming it, I wonder why many here cannot, or are they so wrapped up in wanting to see the Conservatives in power that they have a death wish for the economy.

I for one have no real wish to see the Conservatives in power (nor Labour for that matter). However this whole mess has been caused by people being delusional about their finances and burying their heads in the sand when it came to looking honestly at their own and the country's economies. If the country comes out of recession on a technicality while the reality is still bleak, we will be back to the mass delusion. Many people will return to making the terrible financial decisions they were just beginning to stop making and the whole damn mess will be worse 18 months from now than it will be if we all keep our feet on the ground right now.

This whole country has been on the cocktails for the last few years and the hangover is going to hurt, there is no way around that. If we insist on downing this Hair of the Dog being prepared for us we won't feel so bad in the short term, but the hangover will still get us tomorrow and it will be all the worse.

On a personal level the recession really ending would be more fanatstic for me than for most. I'm an STR but ultimately I want to move back to Ireland, house prices can do what they want here - it doesn't affect me. So I could stick my STR pot on the stock market here, get very bloody rich, and move home to my lovely, cash bought mansion. The UK economy flourishing would be the best thing that could happen from my vested interest, but realistically it's not going to happen anytime soon.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

would you rather be in China's situation when they went from 12% to 6% - it's obviously not recession but that's got to be hurting the Chinese more?

i agree with you so not trying to be pedantic but trying to get a balance of what hurts more moving from 0.5% to -2% or the Chinese example.

Is it going to hurt the Chinese more? I guess some yes. It still means that total spending or total output across the economy has risen by 6% in a year but if you're used to twice that it isn't very nice I would imagine.

I think it's important to remember that GDP is just an aggregation of everybody in an economy. If GDP falls or grows more slowly, the pain isn't felt evenly. I lost my job for example so my consumption contribution to GDP fell dramatically. The insolvency practitioner down the road perhaps took on a new clerk who wasn't working previously on 5% less than my old income. She's laughing, I'm crying. GDP has fallen marginally (simplistically at least).

StevieJ

GracieP wrote: »

On a personal level the recession really ending would be more fanatstic for me than for most. I'm an STR but ultimately I want to move back to Ireland, house prices can do what they want here - it doesn't affect me. So I could stick my STR pot on the stock market here, get very bloody rich, and move home to my lovely, cash bought mansion. The UK economy flourishing would be the best thing that could happen from my vested interest, but realistically it's not going to happen anytime soon.

I don't know if you have watching but it hasn't done so bad recently If you had stuck you STR pot in at the beginning of March you would be doing very nicely thankyou, with the added benefit of a much stronger Stg v Euro. :beer: Just one point The UK stock market is not dependent on the UK economy.