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Recession Over - 1 Month to go??
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Graham_Devon wrote: »Hmmm, what happens though if they need to revise figures, as they are likely to do with the first quarters, and downwards.
Whats that classed as? We back into recession then?
Or is it something which the terrorism act would cover?! You can just imagine Gordons face if we were put back in on revised figures!!
Wait a minute they have not even called an end yet :rolleyes:'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Economists.
I disagree with their definition and prefer the end of a recession to be defined as when real GDP is back to the peak value.
If GDP falls by 5% for 2 consecutive quarters and then rises by 0.1% in the third quarter that is supposed to be good news. Well I ain't buyin' it.
It's not that the definition is bad, its that people want to cling to a single metric and not look at the wider picture.
As a corollary from your example, would 2 consecutive quarters of growth of 5% followed by 14 quarters of zero growth be a good thing ?
No - unemployment will increase in either scenario.US housing: it's not a bubble
Moneyweek, December 20050 -
People where saying we where in a recession long before we where technically in one, can I say the recession is over or is it a one way street ?
Shortest recession in history by the looks as it was only officially called in the middle of January.
Im with you though, i would say its the end in terms of definition, but perhaps not for other factors. (Debt levels, unemployment, even falling house prices etc)0 -
When is the June GDP figure released, will probably will see a stockmarket rise0
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So you would rather it keep on falling by 5%, until almost 0
No silly!
As I say, I think that there is a better definition of what marks the end of a recession.
If GDP falls by 5% for 2 quarters and then rises by 0.1% that can be called Aadvark Day, The End of Recession or Colin as it's still the same thing. GDP is down by almost 9% over the 3 quarters. For my money, it makes more sense to wait until GDP is back up to where you started from before you say that the recession is over.
It is probably worth noting that just about nobody agrees with my definition and AFAIK never has. Oh well - it's just words in the end. What really matters is whether you keep or lose your job and how your income keeps up.0 -
Reccession over!! so now what will happen is labour will fill peoples heads with how they have saved britian....people will fall for it....labour win ANOTHER election then they will claw back all the money they have spent......then you will start to feel the pinch.
Reccession over my [EMAIL="ar@se people"]ar@se [/EMAIL] people are forgetting all this money needs to be recovered....don't even think its close to be over yet.If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have failed to plan properly
I've only ever been wrong once! and that was when I thought I was wrong but I was right0 -
Reccession over!! so now what will happen is labour will fill peoples heads with how they have saved britian....people will fall for it....labour win ANOTHER election then they will claw back all the money they have spent......then you will start to feel the pinch.
Reccession over my ar@se people are forgetting all this money needs to be recovered....don't even think its close to be over yet.
Recession likley to soon be over BY DEFINATION - dosen't mean everything will be okay and back to normal.0 -
Recession likley to soon be over BY DEFINATION - dosen't mean everything will be okay.
It just amazers me people are getting happy about it......they won't be so happy when the Gov starts taking the money back.......it will only come from one place and thats us tax payers
reccession over for businesses maybe.....it just going to start for households.If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have failed to plan properly
I've only ever been wrong once! and that was when I thought I was wrong but I was right0 -
It just amazers me people are getting happy about it......they won't be so happy when the Gov starts taking the money back.......it will only come from one place and thats us tax payers
reccession over for businesses maybe.....it just going to start for households.
Why woudn't people be happy about it? You think the general public WANT to stay in a recession?
As for tax increases, sure it is on the cards - but a seperate issue to the UK recession status.0
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