Evidence For Peak Oil ?

tomterm8

StevieJ wrote: »

The point about this nobody has mentioned, as oil increases in price other otions become price competitive e.g. nuclear, solar, wind, biofuels and as of yet other unknown unkowns. This should lead to more sustitution and a stretching out of the oil reserves eventually leading to the alternatives taking over.

Peak oil people tend to argue that the problem with this view is that at a physical level, not all energy sources are equal. To generate 1kw of power, you need to invest significantly less energy than any of the other options you mention.

Bascially, that implies quite a dramatic reduction in wealth for society as a whole when the oil reserves end.

Frankly, I think the only option that would enable us to maintain the current standard of living will be to generate power using coal or nuclear generation.

My own view is people are messing around, we should have a new Manhattan project to create viable nuclear fusion generation, but I guess nuclear power is unpopular.

harryhound

BUT "Global Warming" means we will not be allowed to burn the stuff?!?

CLAPTON

the amount of oil reserves is largely a political rather than a scientific matter... that is many countries have steadily increased the estimates of how much oil they have even though they have carried out virtually no new exploration.

tomterm8

You simply use science to sort global warming out. Either you extract CO2 during coal generation, or you reduce the temperature of the earth by other means, such as putting dust into the atmosphere in controlled amounts. Global warming is not an unsolvable problem, if you can sort out energy production you can sort out global warming.

The later sentence may seem mad, but people already do it... google global dimming.

StevieJ

tomterm8 wrote: »

Peak oil people tend to argue that the problem with this view is that at a physical level, not all energy sources are equal. To generate 1kw of power, you need to invest significantly less energy than any of the other options you mention.
.

They can say that but it doesn't make it correct, in cost terms if I installed solar panels on my house it would not be cost effective at the moment but if fuel costs rise that would soon change.

tomterm8

You are talking in money terms, but in energy terms, to generate 1kw of energy using a solar panel takes much more energy investment than 1kw of energy produced via oil, and so if society was forced to generate all power using solar panels, society will have significantly less surplus energy. I.e. energy available to fullfill things other than the basic needs.

Money is not so important as what you can buy with money, and the peak oilers suggest that there simply won't be as much energy to go around.

ad9898_3

CLAPTON wrote: »

the amount of oil reserves is largely a political rather than a scientific matter... that is many countries have steadily increased the estimates of how much oil they have even though they have carried out virtually no new exploration.

The Saudi's doubled their reserves in the 80's, so did Kuwait IIRC, it's basically to do with quotas, nothing at all to do with what is in the ground, just as an anecdote, Aramco stopped letting the outside world in just at the time they 'doubled their reserves', and even though they have been pumping between 7-9 million barrels a day for many a year now, they claim their reserves are still 260 billion barrels, the same as 1982........ draw your own conclusions.

harryhound

tomterm8 wrote: »

You simply use science to sort global warming out. Either you extract CO2 during coal generation, or you reduce the temperature of the earth by other means, such as putting dust into the atmosphere in controlled amounts. Global warming is not an unsolvable problem, if you can sort out energy production you can sort out global warming.

The later sentence may seem mad, but people already do it... Google global dimming.

Never mind the huge cost, when the majority of the world population are not sure they can afford the grocery bills.
Simple - we monkey about with a natural system that has taken millions of years to evolve and we don't expect unexpected consequences?
What ever happened to the cautionary principle?

Harry.

"Homes will be built without light switches because the power will be too cheap to meter" those were the days of scientific certainty.

tomterm8

harryhound wrote: »

What ever happened to the cautionary principle?

Harry.
.

It's never stopped us before. :rotfl:

It's not stopping us now either. We are already doing what I propose on a smaller scale... with jets and helicopters.

nearlynew

StevieJ wrote: »

The told me the 90's I wonder how many people didn't look at the oil industry as a career because they thought the oil was going to run out soon

The irony is the fact that every big oil company has invested heavily in R&D of alternative energy sources and employ thousands of people doing so..