How do VI's know 'the bottom is approaching' ?

ad9898_3

Following on from PN's post about reporting of the bottom approaching, what I would like to know, is how do they know ?, my gut feeling is it's just VI spin reported by the media yet again.

As we all know many graphs have been produced showing this has been the quickest acceleration of housing market falls we have seen in history, so when the slope becomes less steep, how can that mean the bottom is approaching ?, the bottom could be still miles away, it just means it will take longer to get there.

Surely we can only know we have hit the bottom, when we have been their for about 5 months, look in the rear view mirror and think, this is it, we have been flat now for 5 months and all the economic indicators are looking positive, may I suggest that we are nowhere near that point whatsoever.

Not only are we still on the slope, all the economic factors looking forward, couldn't look any grimmer.

JonnyBravo

ad9898 wrote: »

....how do they know ?, my gut feeling is it's just VI spin reported by the media yet again.

You are of course quite right.

They don't know.

Just as the peak was predicted a thousand times before it finally came to pass so the bottom will be called many times before it comes to pass.

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

Following on from PN's post about reporting of the bottom approaching, what I would like to know, is how do they know ?, my gut feeling is it's just VI spin reported by the media yet again.

As we all know many graphs have been produced showing this has been the quickest acceleration of housing market falls we have seen in history, so when the slope becomes less steep, how can that mean the bottom is approaching ?, the bottom could be still miles away, it just means it will take longer to get there.

Surely we can only know we have hit the bottom, when we have been their for about 5 months, look in the rear view mirror and think, this is it, we have been flat now for 5 months and all the economic indicators are looking positive, may I suggest that we are nowhere near that point whatsoever.

Not only are we still on the slope, all the economic factors looking forward, couldn't look any grimmer.

as Mr Bravo has told us we don't know but how do we not know that they don't know?

i await the denial to acceptance graph

JonnyBravo

ad9898 wrote: »

Following on from PN's post about reporting of the bottom approaching, what I would like to know, is how do they know ?

Of course you could be reading too much into it, and they are simply talking about the nature of time.

It's hardly getting further away is it?

ad9898_3

chucky wrote: »

as Mr Bravo has told us we don't know but how do we not know that they don't know?

Exactly, so why do the VI's start a story about something they know that they don't know ?

Edit... hang on, I'm getting as confused as Donald Rumsfeld here.:D

System

When did the definition of VI officially change to "different opinion to myself"?

Must have missed it.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Surely we can only know we have hit the bottom, when we have been their for about 5 months, look in the rear view mirror and think, this is it, we have been flat now for 5 months

.

I agree with your post Ad i.e. no one really knows.

But we have been flat for 5 months now:

Nationwide Average House Price:

JAN £150,501
FEB £147,746
MAR £150,946
APR £151,861
MAY £154,016

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Following on from PN's post about reporting of the bottom approaching, what I would like to know, is how do they know ?, my gut feeling is it's just VI spin reported by the media yet again.
.

The point is we don't know, I guessed it would bottom out in the Spring at 20%, hey presto, but then again as all you bears point out it could well be a bull trap We did point out it was supply and demand and both were low, so a certain balance is maintained at a lower level. You say that unemployment and increasing interest rates are going to provide further legs, I say improving bank liquidity will counter the effects of unemployment (and of course govt assistance) and FTBers are already paying higher rates (and larger deposits) so can't see it affecting them to much, it will effect buyers who are now in negative equity who may decide to throw in the towel but they will be in small minority in my view.

StevieJ

Joeskeppi wrote: »

When did the definition of VI officially change to "different opinion to myself"?

Must have missed it.

And how come VI never seems to include STRers aor FTBers

ad9898_3

Joeskeppi wrote: »

When did the definition of VI officially change to "different opinion to myself"?

Must have missed it.

My definition of VI is someone who has access to the media, who extrapolates a set of figures to mean more than they actually do, whilst ignoring the underlying trend and what is causing that trend, to suit their own ends (in this case to keep them in a job, or keep the value of their own property high), a difference of opinion is absolutely fine.

lostinrates

Joeskeppi wrote: »

When did the definition of VI officially change to "different opinion to myself"?

Must have missed it.

I think that has pretty much been the definition from the two sides all along.