Price of Silver

jon3001

dunker1 wrote: »

Yes yes we are all aware of that, impossible to avoid Mr Rogers for the last couple of years saying this, not in doubt. My point is about the currency implications for a uk investor where the dollar declines rapidly which we all know is positive for commodity prices, they may not see the returns they would like unless sterling mirrors the fate of the dollar, possible i suppose, predicting currencies is the ultimate mugs game.

Yes - hard assets (including commodities) can act as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. And, especially if you're a Jim Rogers believer, they're a very worthwhile investment in their own right.

If you think someone else's currency is going to decline then commodity investments probably aren't going directly benefit. You'd be looking at some method of shorting or taking out a loan in that currency and using the proceeds to buy other investments.

novazombie

:DJim Rogers has been proved wrong too many times recently.

He said the Pound was finished and will just keep going down.

Just after he said that look what happened to the pound........

sabretoothtigger

I dont think he makes reference to anything short term, he'll be talking about charts going back 20 years.
Like the mountain of usa government debt, you could draw that trend back to nixon or carter at least, which was the last commodity boom

His reference to the British pound is from a foreign speculators viewpoint, none of us qualify as that afaik.
Also he was talking about north sea oil and gas running out, a major influence on our trade balance and he might be right about that and an under lying trend it sets off on currency strength



I found a crb etf , its quoted in £ and $ and the two vary quite alot just like we saw with gold recently especially.

The pound fell so crb in £ stayed stronger relatively but on the last month time frame its reversed and the crb $ appears to perform better



http://www.lyxoretf.co.uk/quotes/details.php?code=FR0010455485__GBp&country=UK&type=INDICE#sub




^^ The gap in between the two lines on this chart seems to indicate currency exchange rate changes, remove that factor and the lines would be almost the same I think

SilverStandard

Interesting article-


http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/why-silver-is-white-hot-43909.aspx


Silver could double or half, very volotile.

If it doubles Im pleased I have about 20% exposure, if it halves I will buy more.

sabretoothtigger

CEF looked cheap this week start and it rose and fell back for a weekly gain overall.

I was listening to a currency trader earlier and he made some great observations on US Bonds even though its not his market it has strong influence on his trading I guess as only Australia and New Zealand have higher rates at this moment

Rather then just an opinion he shows long term trends in ratios between the 2 and 10 year US bonds from their own data pointing to an inevitable rise in yields, rates, etc
Gold and silver are currency related so there is a good link and he talks about it later in the video I believe, I havent watched it all yet
I recommend people watch back his seminar or at least read the slides provided. Its no tv show, but well worth the effort as the info is good imo


last one on the list here or the pdf is below
http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp

http://docs.hamzeianalytics.com/AL_061309.pdf

Investors have been looking past the slump in industrial demand over the past few months, which metals consultancy GFMS reckons troughed in the first quarter, to a rebound driven by economic recovery.



So silver has gained from both the gold and the base metals rally. These two drivers could well propel silver to $20 in the next month, according to Scheidt.



Longer term, the precious metals outlook remains promising, with jitters mounting over inflation as the dollar weakens and deficits all over the world soar; this factor should continue to underpin rapidly-growing investment demand.



Evidence that industrial demand is not strengthening as expected could dent the metal's prospects – but if it does recover, prices could go "off to the races" beyond $20 an ounce, says GFMS's Philip Klapwijk.

I dont think silver will half but the chances of people becoming less optimistic about industrial prospects is massive. So this commodity is even more convoluted then gold
Ultimately the slack on commodities will be taken up not so much by established economies but any adjustment in demand should benefit growing ones instead.
Theres no way the market will be able to estimate correctly that happening so the price will be all over the place I guess, it will be cut between a correlation to gold , insecurity in currencies and a failure in industry.
Its too complicated for me but worth a look nearer 10 maybe.

In physical holdings I think silver might have a performance tracking advantage in volatile markets over a futures contract holding etf.
Not sure how important that is for long term returns, hopefully not too much when not leveraged

crazygaijin

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Its too complicated for me but worth a look nearer 10 maybe.

In physical holdings I think silver might have a performance tracking advantage in volatile markets over a futures contract holding etf.
Not sure how important that is for long term returns, hopefully not too much when not leveraged

Worth a look nearer to 10, are you talking about GBP? Its well below 10 recently, about 8 something now. I just recently bought in more at 10.

Yes silver is very volotile, which gives it such an oportunity.

How can industrial demand go down much? Unless the world stops using cell phones and PC`s. China alone has about a billion people coming out of poverty wanting the western lifestyle, they will all want these cool electric devices they all need silver in them.

sabretoothtigger

I meant in dollars, most major trade is done in dollars unfortunately but of course the pound is more relevant to us
Its hard to picture the exact nature of the underlying commodity, pound was rising, dollar was falling so its confusing what is silver doing

How can industrial demand go down much?

In the long term I agree but Right now China is a nation that represents a quarter of american demand even though they have more people, more growth.
Economies are all tied up unfortunately so i wont even attempt to sum it up but theres a couple of good articles available

A billion live in india but if 70% of them earn less then a dollar a day it becomes easier to see how much more weight american influence carries on everything including commodity demand.
However the rupee I think its strengthing along with other currencies and the chinese are artifically surpressing their own ability to buy, import, etc
Im sure this has an influence on trade, currencies and commodities but its hard to say how and when

novazombie

For the first time in human history ever, there is now more gold in the world available to buy than silver.

Look at this 5 mins in

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqz31tTedRw&feature=related

Mike Maloney says in his book that the price of silver will be more than gold!

sabretoothtigger

What about platnium, that was 10k and now its near to 1k and its rarer then either


This is from kitco for the sake of the record

Jun 24, 2009 16:11 NY Time
Gold/XAU Ratio 6.66
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.24
Gold/Platinum Ratio 0.80

not sure what gold/xau means, i thought xau was gold symbol:o

mining stocks apparently in this case

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The XAU is an index traded on the Philadelphia exchange. It consists of 16 precious metal mining companies. Those companies and their current share prices are listed below.[/FONT]

http://www.kitco.com/pop_windows/stocks/xau.html











http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld%3Aslv

sabretoothtigger

Why has FRESNILLO fallen over 30% in the last month and then recovered 10% today

Even the yield looks decent, slightly ott ?

In the last 3 months they gained 60% and lost it all over again:confused: Trading below IPO price I think also