Anyone Nervous?

neas

House price growth and decline cant simply be 'mapped' to a graph... its an estimate and a pretty rough one at that.

House prices are a complex system, compromising many factors pushing up/down

- Human desire
- Perception
- population growth
- credit sources
- income to cost ratio (recently high)
- Speculation and ramping

Only major effects on the market can be predicted well, and even then not that well by most banks/people... look at the last year, speaking majority wise nobody called it correct from the start point... they were waaay off.

Its unpredicatable, very unpredictable... Only time you can say whether this was a bull trap, or a rise/platause/fall etc... is in 6+ months time from now when you see the actual trend.

I knew houses wouldnt just fall 2%+ each month,they rise, and fall at a slower rate during this period. Its not a simple line, its a noisey system!

aardvaak

If that was the recession it was not a recession possibly a downturn - however if it's over perhaps we might now see higher interest rates now!

ad9898_3

aardvaak wrote: »

however if it's over perhaps we might now see higher interest rates now!

Not a chance, the over-indebted still need all the help they can get, just imagine the carnage in the housing market at this time if base rate were a very modest 6% and most SVR's and mortgage products were around 7-8%.

Give people enough rope and they will hang themselves in the end, that has what cheap credit has done, and the answer ??, more cheap credit.:rolleyes:

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Guys, guys, you need to calm down, what we have seen this week is/was highly predictable, no boom or bust goes up or down continuously, it's impossible for any market nevermind the housing market to act in this way. Look at history, 24 months out of the 70+ months in the last crash showed a rise, the only surprise this time is it's happened far less frequently this time so far.

Don't forget, prices still fell (not by much, granted) for 3 years ('93-'96) in the last crash when, IR's were falling, taxes were falling, unemployment was falling, GDP was rising and the general economy was in far, far better health than it is now, with low public and personal debt.

I won't go over it again, but we all know which way those factors I have mentioned are heading at this time in the cycle. Relax, it's Saturday, go out for a beer.:)

I think, by now, it is clear that this crash will be nothing like the 90s one.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

I think, by now, it is clear that this crash will be nothing like the 90s one.

In what way will it be different Dan, I admit it won't follow the exact path, but what we have seen so far is pretty much spot, big initial falls, followed by a lower monthly falls punctuated with the odd rise.

pickles110564

ad44downey wrote: »

mewbie, you're wasting your time arguing with chucky, dan and pickles. Especially as they're all the same nutter; he's got more socks than Marks and Spencer.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Quite rich coming from you, dont make me fall out with you again as I have been striking up quite a good freindship with one of your other sockies Fatpig.

Best rgds
Pickles

pickles110564

ad9898 wrote: »

In what way will it be different Dan, I admit it won't follow the exact path, but what we have seen so far is pretty much spot, big initial falls, followed by a lower monthly falls punctuated with the odd rise.

Ad, do us a favour and read back through some of my lastest posts in docks in trouble thread and please give me your usual unbiased take as I think Mewbie and Vinergartits are wrong.

Dan:_4

fatpig wrote: »

At last we agree. With the calamitous banking failures, this one is going to be much worse than the one in the 1990's.

It already is worse.

treliac

fatpig wrote: »

At last we agree. With the calamitous banking failures, this one is going to be much worse than the one in the 1990's.

In the 90's house prices took 5 - 6 years from drops starting, through a lengthy rattle along the bottom, before they started to go up again.

If this recession is so much worse and we're making comparisons then, by that rationale, the signs do look far worse.

PasturesNew

ess0two wrote: »

Depends if you have age on your side,earlier 20's could possibly wait a tad longer,late 20's/30's gotta be getting itchy feet.

Late 40s reporting in: Standing firm.
We were built with backbone!