50% rise in house prices needed before crash

sm9ai

Rogerb wrote:

Today's potential first time buyers are faced with much higher pension contributions and student debt than in previous generations. Only time will tell of course but I feel it is inevitable house prices will have to eventually fall to a much lower level that will allow these new buyers into the market.

My thoughts exactly.

NastyMatt

1.9% is in London. Not UK. And no.. 1.9% would not scare me. Why? There is no reason there WILL be a crash.. nothing.. there is no reason that it would carry on at 1.9%.. who says houses won't hit a level and stay there for 5-10 years?? Is that a crash or an adjustment? There is nothing to say the housing market WON'T go through the floor tomorrow....

No one can predict the future... nothing IS going to happen.

Why dread something that may or may not happen? Why worry what your house might be worth in 3 months time? There is nothing you can do about it.

I get the over whelming feeling that there is a group of forum members who want a crash so they can post "ahaha.. told you so". Doom merchants. If I was a FTB it wouldn't be the size of the mortgage that would horrify me it would be the posters on here!!

In my experience the people who want a crash are the people that missed out 10 years ago..

Personally? It matters not if there is a crash or not. I would prefer there isn't because it would effect a lot of people.. and not just the people who have second homes for BTL or the people who buy to sell on... but also FTB who have scrimped to get a roof over their head because that's what they want... not to be property tycoons!

Don't anyone take this personally.. I am not directing it at any individuals...

Rant over..

meanmachine_2

I agree with you Nasty.

The market will take care of itself.

If it goes too high, the economy will falter, and a recession will choke things down again.

That's why a boom is always to be avoided.

manhattan

NastyMatt wrote:

1.9% is in London. Not UK. And no.. 1.9% would not scare me. Why? There is no reason there WILL be a crash.. nothing.. there is no reason that it would carry on at 1.9%.. who says houses won't hit a level and stay there for 5-10 years?? Is that a crash or an adjustment? There is nothing to say the housing market WON'T go through the floor tomorrow....

No one can predict the future... nothing IS going to happen.

Why dread something that may or may not happen? Why worry what your house might be worth in 3 months time? There is nothing you can do about it.

I get the over whelming feeling that there is a group of forum members who want a crash so they can post "ahaha.. told you so". Doom merchants. If I was a FTB it wouldn't be the size of the mortgage that would horrify me it would be the posters on here!!

In my experience the people who want a crash are the people that missed out 10 years ago..

Personally? It matters not if there is a crash or not. I would prefer there isn't because it would effect a lot of people.. and not just the people who have second homes for BTL or the people who buy to sell on... but also FTB who have scrimped to get a roof over their head because that's what they want... not to be property tycoons!

Don't anyone take this personally.. I am not directing it at any individuals...

Rant over..

so do you think house prices today are reasonable?

if you were a first timer buyer today what would you think?

zorber

My house has doubled in value over the last 5 years. This is great but it doesnt mean that if we tried to upgrade our house to a better one we are no better off (infact probably worse off) then when our house was bought.
Every ones houses have gone up and if they all go up by the same factor you actually have to find more money now to get to the next level. As a matter of fact in my house was put on the market today i would not be able to get a morgage for it as i wouldnt earn enough to meet the reayments.

The only benifit of my house increasing in value is if i was selling up and moving abroad or retiring (which wont be for many years yet).

who knows if the market will collapse or not but i for one am certainly not spending the equity in my house. If interest rates doubled now i would be unable to meet repayments.

NSR2

Rogerb wrote:

Today's potential first time buyers are faced with much higher pension contributions and student debt than in previous generations. Only time will tell of course but I feel it is inevitable house prices will have to eventually fall to a much lower level that will allow these new buyers into the market.

You're right about the student debts, but the pension contributions i think you may be wrong on.

Sensible people will sort out a pension, and make regular contributions.

However the number of times I've heard property described as a "nest egg" makes me think some people are using property as their pension.
In these cases people are putting buying a property / paying their morgage above their pensions.

I wonder what its going to be like in 30 / 40 yrs time?

NastyMatt

manhattan wrote:

so do you think house prices today are reasonable?

if you were a first timer buyer today what would you think?

Reasonable? Houses are never reasonable. If I was FTB now I'd be unhappy at the house prices.. but then I was unhappy when I was a FTB.. looking back I should have bought 3 places!! :rotfl:

manhattan

NastyMatt wrote:

looking back I should have bought 3 places!! :rotfl:

i dont know about that,its a dodgy game a bit like russian roulette!

nelly_2

All I want is a 3 bungalow in the top of a cul de sac I can afford one but id rather they were half the price

sm9ai

NastyMatt wrote:

Reasonable? Houses are never reasonable. If I was FTB now I'd be unhappy at the house prices.. but then I was unhappy when I was a FTB.. looking back I should have bought 3 places!! :rotfl:

Could you of afforded 3 places back then?