50% rise in house prices needed before crash

Tassotti

meanmachine wrote:

Haha how funny. Tassotti, you find the time to link to an article then don't bother reading it. Too busy managing your bulging property empire no doubt.

Ha ha . How embarrassing!!! :eek:

sm9ai

Nationwide seem to disagree with this thread.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1739418,00.html

NastyMatt

sm9ai wrote:

Nationwide seem to disagree with this thread.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1739418,00.html

Sorry to disappoint but figures released this morning showed another 0.4% house price increase last month. 1.9% in London.

So that article.. is... err.. today's chip paper!!

Found link:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/

manhattan

people seem to be hooked on how much paper money they have gained,and forgot that a house is to live in.i see lots of stupid friends remortgageing their house so they can buy a new bmw x5,holidays etc,etc and not think ahead at what MAY happen over the next few years.

i dont want a major crash,all i want is prices to become realistic! so ftb with average wages can step onto the ladder.

sm9ai

NastyMatt wrote:

Sorry to disappoint but figures released this morning showed another 0.4% house price increase last month. 1.9% in London.

So that article.. is... err.. today's chip paper!!

Found link:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/

I'm not disappointed at all. Nationwide predicting the end. Its a big thing!

NastyMatt

sm9ai wrote:

I'm not disappointed at all. Nationwide predicting the end. Its a big thing!

They're predicting the end??? mmmm??!?! Think you need to reread the article you have linked to. This is what they predict.. .and it is certainly not "the end":

Cut and paste:

"Nationwide has forecast house price growth of 0-3 per cent for 2006. With the annual rate at 3. 7 per cent in February, that would mean a considerable slowdown in the latter part of the year."

"The end" would read "Nationwide has forecast house price growth of -100% per cent for 2006."

meanmachine_2

Nastymatt, I should think the hometrack figures would fill you with dread.

The point of this thread is to suggest that the quicker the market reaches absolute unaffordability, the quicker it will crash.

A monthly rise of 1.9% sounds like a fast track to madness.

Let's hope things do calm down, otherwise two things will happen: int rates will have to rise and the market will be that much closer to a nasty crash.

The "bulls" can't have it both ways. They either want a soft landing, or they want a second boom whcih can only hasten 1989 levels of unaffordability. And we all know how that ended.

As for the Nationwide, I expect they're trying to dampen down expectations in the coming months as their report this week will report further big rises. They're a VI trying to persuade the MPC to cut rates, remember.

Rogerb_2

Today's potential first time buyers are faced with much higher pension contributions and student debt than in previous generations. Only time will tell of course but I feel it is inevitable house prices will have to eventually fall to a much lower level that will allow these new buyers into the market.

sm9ai

NastyMatt wrote:

They're predicting the end??? mmmm??!?! Think you need to reread the article you have linked to. This is what they predict.. .and it is certainly not "the end":

Cut and paste:

"Nationwide has forecast house price growth of 0-3 per cent for 2006. With the annual rate at 3. 7 per cent in February, that would mean a considerable slowdown in the latter part of the year."

"The end" would read "Nationwide has forecast house price growth of -100% per cent for 2006."

Stop twisting my words, you know what i mean

sm9ai

meanmachine wrote:

As for the Nationwide, I expect they're trying to dampen down expectations in the coming months as their report this week will report further big rises. They're a VI trying to persuade the MPC to cut rates, remember.

Thats probably more like it.