Fed up...

michaels

I went 'a viewing' this morning and honestly it was like the last 2 years had just been a dream, buyers queuing to look round Probate sales requiring total refurbishment OIRO 420K and extended 4 bed (but still small) semis for 575k (I know the unextended one next door sold in a week a fortnight ago but it was only 350k).

What does it all mean - are we in a bull trap on the way down with credit still tight and employment falling or could the big mo' really be returning - the banks have cleared out a lot of the sub prime debt and if the economy and assets prices were recovering all the expected future write downs might become write backs....

...but of course there is still the story that if there is a recovery input prices will tighten, requiring monetary tightening and of course the massive public sector debt overhang putting a squeeze on real incomes via tax increases and public spending cuts.

I couldn't even begin to put probabilities on different outcomes let alone 'call it'.

Spiv_2

pizzagirl wrote: »

Ok I'll bite. Isn't there a million empty houses? Or is this sort of urban myth?

And now we are are well below the 2003 figures - 133,000 - building has never fallen this low not even during the 80's and 90's crashes.

Which way do you think the UK population has moved since 1953?

a_rather_tall_man

This isn't about numbers of houses available its about credit and people's ability to buy. Demand is always way higher than what can be built in theory as there are many people who'd like second or even third homes if they could afford them. It may be a very simplistic argument but this supposed shortage hasn't result in thousands living rough.

Forget what may or may not be built but think more about rising unemployment and the downward pressures on wages this brings for those who are still working and banks having to spend a few years rebuilding balance sheets. The FT article is very likely right in that the worst is over, it couldnt get much worse than the near collapse of the financial system could it, but talk of shortages and buy now before its too late seems fanciful imo. I have expected there to be a bounce as there are enough people who were initially priced out now sitting on very large deposits to give the market a shot in the arm but once they have spent their load so to speak the outlook after that has too many negative economic factors.

FungusFighter

The sheeples want all the nasty recession stuff to be over and are buying into the hype that it is:D

Man, we aint even got started yet but your time will come, just hang on to your wad and wait for the clocks to go back:rotfl::rotfl:

lostinrates

SGE1, good luck.

Without wanting to be two nosey what sort of postcode and price?

FWIW I'm often finding that things I would be interested in, and at auction, are being advertised so close to auction date its bloody impossible timing. I don't know why the mortagees are saying this but they tell me (both the bank we have an AIP with and the agricultural mortgage broker,) we could be looking for five week to survey. That stinks, and is usually about a week after the auction date. As you have to put the deposit down on bidding the risk of survey showing up something ghastly, or if we have a separate surveyer doing a comprehensive survey the other surveyor saying something different ours re price and mortgageability scares me so much I'm to scared to take the risk of bidding on something unlooked at by our mortgage provider.

When the market's so quiet I wold ahve thought the surveys could be coming in quicker, not slower???

DaveyDave_3

a_rather_tall_man wrote: »

This isn't about numbers of houses available its about credit and people's ability to buy. Demand is always way higher than what can be built in theory as there are many people who'd like second or even third homes if they could afford them. It may be a very simplistic argument but this supposed shortage hasn't result in thousands living rough.

This is absolutely right. The recent fall in prices has nothing to do with supply and demand. It is to do with credit availability. The fundamentals are still pretty bad in my opinion. Rising unemployment, and banks still lending far less than a couple of years ago. And mortgages require lower LTV figures and larger fees. We might be having an 'up' blip at the moment, but come autumn, I bet that prices will be continuing to fall. You just have to wait for it to happen. I reckon there's another good 15-20% to go yet.

SGE1

lostinrates wrote: »

SGE1, good luck.

Without wanting to be two nosey what sort of postcode and price?

FWIW I'm often finding that things I would be interested in, and at auction, are being advertised so close to auction date its bloody impossible timing. I don't know why the mortagees are saying this but they tell me (both the bank we have an AIP with and the agricultural mortgage broker,) we could be looking for five week to survey. That stinks, and is usually about a week after the auction date. As you have to put the deposit down on bidding the risk of survey showing up something ghastly, or if we have a separate surveyer doing a comprehensive survey the other surveyor saying something different ours re price and mortgageability scares me so much I'm to scared to take the risk of bidding on something unlooked at by our mortgage provider.

When the market's so quiet I wold ahve thought the surveys could be coming in quicker, not slower???

Your description of the auction process is exactly why I'm scared. It's a huge gamble, and I don't have any builder/surveyor friends who can provide quick advice.

We're looking anywhere in London zones 2 or 3, though preferably not West London. We're looking (or rather were looking) for a 2 bed terraced house; cute cottagey type place with a small garden for a cat (we don't have the cat yet but already his needs are being well defended). Budget was £250k for hopefully a home beautiful on the outside (period, I'm a bit of a snob), and horrid 70s decor inside so we can rip the place apart without feeling bad.

But apparently there are only 7 such houses in London, so we've reverted to flat-hunting. I'm not delighted about leasehold (mainly I'm suspicious as I don't really understand what it entails), but we've not really got a choice. Plus the prospect of the cat having to perform acrobatics to get from a windowsill to a nearby branch (due to probable lack of garden) worries me.

I'm probably thinking about the needs of the cat too much.

lostinrates

SGE1 wrote: »

Your description of the auction process is exactly why I'm scared. It's a huge gamble, and I don't have any builder/surveyor friends who can provide quick advice.

We're looking anywhere in London zones 2 or 3, though preferably not West London. We're looking (or rather were looking) for a 2 bed terraced house; cute cottagey type place with a small garden for a cat (we don't have the cat yet but already his needs are being well defended). Budget was £250k for hopefully a home beautiful on the outside (period, I'm a bit of a snob), and horrid 70s decor inside so we can rip the place apart without feeling bad.

But apparently there are only 7 such houses in London, so we've reverted to flat-hunting. I'm not delighted about leasehold (mainly I'm suspicious as I don't really understand what it entails), but we've not really got a choice. Plus the prospect of the cat having to perform acrobatics to get from a windowsill to a nearby branch (due to probable lack of garden) worries me.

I'm probably thinking about the needs of the cat too much.

I'd personally opt, I think, for non period house over flat I think. But area and square footage would swing it for me.

Needs of teh cats are very important. If you get a flat though, rather than have it perform acrobatics, maybe look at something that has to stay in (cat aids?).

No chance of relaxing the search till out of the peak househunting season? You might get better recepion, but supply will still be an issue.

ILW

SGE1 wrote: »

...

'Hi I'm calling about two of your properties on [insert location]. They appear as under offer, but I was wondering whether the offers have been acce...'
'They're sold.'
'Oh ok, so the offers have been acce...'
'They're sold. Who are you?'
'Er, I'm someone trying to buy a house?'
'D'you wanna register?'
'No, but thank you for your kindness'
(Haart)

I hate them all.

If you are serious, why not register? I cannot see the problem.
The worst thing they can do is send you letters and emails.

System

SGE1 wrote: »

Plus the prospect of the cat having to perform acrobatics to get from a windowsill to a nearby branch (due to probable lack of garden) worries me.

I'm probably thinking about the needs of the cat too much.

I have a cat that lives indoors, sure he fell out the 2nd storey window once but we've rectified that issue now.
I wasn't sure about getting an indoor cat but I don't know what I'd do without him now, as I type he's asleep with his head on my arm
http://maxshouse.com/Healthy+Happy_Indoors.htm
http://www.infopet.co.uk/pages/0171.html
http://www.celiahaddon.co.uk/pet%20problems/cats/indoor.html