The recession, benefits, the safety net, and the learning curve

PasturesNew

Don't forget - the phone can ring at the drop of a hat with an interview... mine just did. Popping in to c0ck that up at a venue first thing in the morning.

harryhound

dopester wrote: »

It remains a superb opportunity imo. Only people with money savings will increasingly matter now (just the way it is). Not those who own property still valued at levels of the old paradigm, who have little by way of money savings.

With the economy unwinding, and the government will finally understand it can not rescue every debt else for it just makes matters worse and there would be no recovery. Ever more people will be forced to bring stuff to market. Property, antiques, valuables of all types... to sell to raise cash. Whenever they accept lower prices than in previous times, it lowers the market value for other people who own similar possessions, even if they don't plan to sell them.

Mobility/migration is also going to be increasingly important. Being able to relocate to employment opportunities in other areas, and there is a risk some areas may suffer because of much fewer employment opportunities.

I can't help but find it shameful that no one backs me up on this. That the mindset is still one of championing Max to stay in a home he paid off 10 years early, where the market value quadrupled since he bought the place....... despite the economy being set to lose jobs at the rate of 100,000 a month. Pastures - you are wrong. STR or STL is still a brilliant opportunity, above the love and entire being going in to a home.

Whilst knowing Max is a decent person, and probably well educated, qualified and hard-working, he may find it ever tougher to land his preferred type of job. That would be no reflection on him as an individual, but of the unwinding economy.

Were that to happen, how long can he keep his home, when he is already hard-pressed at the thought of surviving and paying the bills on JSA? Go-a-stealing Max? You'd rather go to prison instead of STR and convert your home into £125,000 financial capital. :rolleyes:

At the risk of being ostracised by the rest of the board, I will back you up.

STR is a very hard thing to do especially if you have lived in a home for years and you are married.
I think it is a biological thing: the female of the species is much more resistant to leaving the nest, especially if it means roughing it. Women are judged by their ability to keep up appearances, more than men.

I have two children a little younger than the original poster and I advised both of them to STR two or three years ago. The boy did and the girl did not.
I know of several people who have taken your proposed route - though living in a camper van in the winter is a bit of damp condensation option.

In the last big recession post '89, I know of an out of work architect who lived on a New Forest camp site, with wife and kids, through the summer, just so he could get a good rental value on his relatively posh home.

Personally if I were 30 years younger, I would take the option of buying a wreck and doing it up; after all when you go to a job interview you are still economically active. Feeling sorry for yourself on the dole and getting desperate comes across at interviews. We must be getting to the stage where bankrupt developers are selling off half finished houses or plots they cannot finance. Material prices are down and there must be plenty of tradesmen available for cash in hand jobs - for the tasks the DIY man feels unable to tackle.

I'm always uplifted by the "Grand Design" stories where an ordinary bloke with little capital achieves something memorable:
A couple of years ago it was the carpenter with the long suffering Japanese wife who built a hexagonal (?) home on stilts in the Fens.
Recently CH4 revisited the woodsman in a forest in Sussex, and his new wife and family. He had built a home mainly made of his own wood for the structural frame and then filled the frame with straw bales.

I would be watching the auctions ready to snap up a distressed sale that needed work doing. It worked for me in the 1970's - the only downside is the amazing increases in rules, regulations and fees in the intervening years.

I have convinced myself that getting out of cash soon will be important, as both too much money and too few goods are drivers for inflation. Though I do believe this will be a double dip recession - it will get worse again before it starts getting better.

Good luck to all readers of this thread,

Harry.

Max_Headroom_3

lostinrates wrote: »

It is doable: its a bit harder work to make it doable in a nutritionally balanced way, but its still possible.

Any luck with jobs Max?

Sorry LiR, missed this post earlier.

No, sadly not. Applied for another three last week though, so fingers crossed.

In fact I've been slightly surprised at the number of jobs there have been advertised. Not loads by any means, but a trickle, which is more than i feared.

Mind you, I've been even more surprised with the resounding silence to any and all applications!

Max_Headroom_3

harryhound wrote: »

At the risk of being ostracised by the rest of the board, I will back you up.

STR is a very hard thing to do especially if you have lived in a home for years and you are married.
I think it is a biological thing: the female of the species is much more resistant to leaving the nest, especially if it means roughing it. Women are judged by their ability to keep up appearances, more than men.

I have two children a little younger than the original poster and I advised both of them to STR two or three years ago. The boy did and the girl did not.
I know of several people who have taken your proposed route - though living in a camper van in the winter is a bit of damp condensation option.

In the last big recession post '89, I know of an out of work architect who lived on a New Forest camp site, with wife and kids, through the summer, just so he could get a good rental value on his relatively posh home.

Personally if I were 30 years younger, I would take the option of buying a wreck and doing it up; after all when you go to a job interview you are still economically active. Feeling sorry for yourself on the dole and getting desperate comes across at interviews. We must be getting to the stage where bankrupt developers are selling off half finished houses or plots they cannot finance. Material prices are down and there must be plenty of tradesmen available for cash in hand jobs - for the tasks the DIY man feels unable to tackle.

I'm always uplifted by the "Grand Design" stories where an ordinary bloke with little capital achieves something memorable:
A couple of years ago it was the carpenter with the long suffering Japanese wife who built a hexagonal (?) home on stilts in the Fens.
Recently CH4 revisited the woodsman in a forest in Sussex, and his new wife and family. He had built a home mainly made of his own wood for the structural frame and then filled the frame with straw bales.

I would be watching the auctions ready to snap up a distressed sale that needed work doing. It worked for me in the 1970's - the only downside is the amazing increases in rules, regulations and fees in the intervening years.

I have convinced myself that getting out of cash soon will be important, as both too much money and too few goods are drivers for inflation. Though I do believe this will be a double dip recession - it will get worse again before it starts getting better.

Good luck to all readers of this thread,

Harry.

Fair enough and each to their own, but I don't think being out of work in a potentially worsening recession is the right time for me to gamble with the one big plus point I've been able to create for myself, residential security.

mewbie_2

I do have a suggestion. If Max can sell his house, and take to sleeping on a park bench, then we could merge two of the longest threads on here.

lostinrates

harryhound wrote: »

Personally if I were 30 years younger, I would take the option of buying a wreck and doing it up;
Harry.

The thing is, round here, and in London when I was there, wrecks were more expensive: the materials etc accounted for. We would do it too, otherwise.

harryhound

Perhaps, if Max could post a bit more about his "skill set" and the geographical area where he could work, then we could all think up some leads for him?
He would be taking a slight risk with his privacy but it might work out well.

Talking about other large threads, and people asking for advice, I am reminded of
the EagerLearner thread on tackling a devious landlady. Only worth a special mention in the weekly newsletter when the thread gets over 1000 postings:D

So mewbie which other thread are you thinking of marrying to this one? I guess the guy kipping on the bench and should we feed him?. It kind of reminds me of the Alan Bennett story of a bag lady, who turned up outside his place, only to be chased into his driveway by the council painting yellow lines:
http://www.whatsonstage.com/index.php?pg=207&story=E8821100775798

The thing is, round here, and in London when I was there, wrecks were more expensive: the materials etc accounted for. We would do it too, otherwise.

I agree that London is a long odds gamble, its major industry of international finance has been wrecked once before by WW1 - A lot of those Edwardians, living on the fat created by the graft of their Victorian parents, had to go out and get a proper job, if they survived the trenches. The worrying thing is that this time the industry has been wrecked by short term gambling, which has made a nonsense of the "my word is my bond" reputation for probity.
I think London will bounce back; the government has devalued our currency to make us cheaper, the Americans will get all wrapped up in red tape; so all we need to do is get back the reputation for honest reliability, without too much tax and government interference. London's major boost in the '60s was by being the off shore centre of choice for the "Euro" dollar market. Unfortunately we might be looking at Shanghai or Hong Kong as the "China" dollar market - cos that is where the money is now. Are you any good at Mandarin Max?

You should find that plots, redevelopment and renovation opportunities are much cheaper now.
Consider a posh new 1,000,000 house in a nice London suburb - how much do you think the 1/3rd acre plot it stands on would have cost in (say) 2004?
(I once tried to get "SquatNow" to learn the realities and politics of the housing market; but he preferred sticking to the slogans)

It would not surprise me to find the price of such plots down 50% by now. especially when bought from the developer's liquidator:rolleyes:. Similarly, the materials, especially the second hand ones, must be a whole lot cheaper now.
Anyone needing a few 'phone numbers to be pointed in the right direction in S. Essex, send me a PM then grab your own boot straps.

Harry.

lostinrates

Are plot prices falling? I'm follow land prices (agricultural) not plot prices. The few that get sent to me seem disproportionately high still, though.

Its not just London. ''Home''is wessex/south west. Wrecks here have been turned into des-reses on a mass scale mainly. Something that was a fixer upper sold for 15% less than it 2006 price recently, with Ag tie, but that was still £555k. A good drop in price over all, but to rectify the damage I think has occured since last sale could take a lot of the difference in price really.

harryhound

Agriculture is a European industry where most of the accounting is in Euro's not in devalued Sterling.
Agricultural land is holding up because food prices are high and farming is profitable.
Interest rates, the opportunity cost of owning land not cash, are at rock bottom.
Agricultural land does not pay business rates, so it is largely cost free to hold.
The UK's massive debts will have to be liquidated somehow, the choice is taxation or inflation, probably both.
Agriculture also provides good opportunities to claim subsidies & get everything subsidised by VAT zero rating .
Farmsteads offer opportunities to avoid massive sums in IHT.
Country properties provide some escape from urban crime and offer peace and seclusion, plus an element of self sufficiency if things get nasty and global warming is going to be as bad as is threatened.

Now what was the question again? Ah yes, why is agricultural land not falling in line with the collapse most of our other manufacturing and service industries?

Harry.

PS What do you use to monitor agricultural land prices? There used to be a glossy mag that I could read in the Library, called "Farmland Market", but the Library no longer takes it.
I only have a passing interest, but it is useful to keep an eye on the concerns and regulations that govern the businesses of my neighbours: Wind turbine or cell phone tower anyone?.

lostinrates

harryhound wrote: »

Now what was the question again? Ah yes, why is agricultural land not falling in line with the collapse most of our other manufacturing and service industries?
Huh, no...I asked about plots, not agriculture!

PS What do you use to monitor agricultural land prices? .

I make a note of sales prices in areas I'm looking at, and I take the agricultural press (Frmer's weekly nd Farmer's Guardian) and read the relevant agents' reports. There are also a few internet resources.