Debate House Prices


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Option ARM timebomb set to explode....

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Comments

  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ad9898 wrote: »
    I believe the whole of 2009 was the dip in middle, with subprime on one side (2007-8) and ARM's etc... on the other side (2010-2012), bank profits at this time are to be expected with the bank rate so low and bank lending rate relatively high.

    It looks like it does spike for 2009 from around the middle. I guess it is a wait and see but I would not expect profits from banks as they would be making provisions for right downs I would of thought.:confused:
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Really2 wrote: »
    It looks like it does spike for 2009 from around the middle. I guess it is a wait and see but I would not expect profits from banks as they would be making provisions for right downs I would of thought.:confused:

    But they are not as clued up about their potential liabilities/write offs as the people on this board.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • ad9898_3
    ad9898_3 Posts: 3,858 Forumite
    StevieJ wrote: »
    But they are not as clued up about their potential liabilities/write offs as the people on this board.

    Oh I'm sure they are clued up...... but just as I mentioned on the the other thread about oil, many people think that putting there head in the sand will make the problem disappear.
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ad9898 wrote: »
    Oh I'm sure they are clued up...... but just as I mentioned on the the other thread about oil, many people think that putting there head in the sand will make the problem disappear.

    Does that include the auditors :confused:
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • ad9898_3
    ad9898_3 Posts: 3,858 Forumite
    StevieJ wrote: »
    Does that include the auditors :confused:

    I'm happy to be seen to be wrong on issues, I won't be getting a new username because of it.:D
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ad9898 wrote: »
    I'm happy to be seen to be wrong on issues, I won't be getting a new username because of it.:D

    Just to be safe I have sold my Barclays shares that I bought for 50p, what was that Warrren Buffet saying ?

    Oh yes.

    "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,036 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    edited 3 August 2009 at 4:05PM
    I agree with the premise but he also said to buy a good company and hold it forever which could apply to barclays but I agree with selling at this price but not everything since I like them long term

    I would sell everything if they got to £4 though, thats how whacky the market is to me

    The lehmans assets were like a perfect storm for them, if I'd had figured that out earlier it would been nice
  • mbga9pgf
    mbga9pgf Posts: 3,224 Forumite
    ad9898 wrote: »
    I believe the whole of 2009 was the dip in middle, with subprime on one side (2007-8) and ARM's etc... on the other side (2010-2012), bank profits at this time are to be expected with the bank rate so low and bank lending rate relatively high.


    Lets see if the banks can cope with this...

    option-arm-recast.gif
  • mbga9pgf
    mbga9pgf Posts: 3,224 Forumite
    mbga9pgf wrote: »
    Lets see if the banks can cope with this...

    option-arm-recast.gif


    Either way, this time next year we will know what is going on. If, this time next year the banks are not taking heavy losses again and constraining lending, the plan will be to buy once the election is done with and the shock budget is knocking 7 shades of sh&t out of the housing market. Expect to see another 10% off prices between now and then.

    Totherwise, plan b will be to buy Mid-late 2011. If Option arm hits hard, the figure will be 15-20% off by mid-late 2011. With a 160K deposit in hand.
  • kennyboy66_2
    kennyboy66_2 Posts: 2,598 Forumite
    I wondered how long it would be before you posted a graph.
    US housing: it's not a bubble

    Moneyweek, December 2005
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