We are around a bottom and I only see up from here

sabretoothtigger

Thread theme - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4esUPN8SIs

bo_drinker

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thread theme - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4esUPN8SIs

That takes me back :T

tommy75

bo_drinker wrote: »

Must be a different media round your way Tommy ??

Dunno, Is this: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-18324610.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^85428&radius=1.0&pageNumber=7&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E85428%26radius%3D1.0%26index%3D60 your way?

I mean who needs to be able to 'swing a cat' in a studio flat that costs nearly 1 million pounds in London? Everybodys rich down there. That flat could easily be 2 million next year if we have a V shaped recession...

geoffky

So sorry to disappoint you but the biggest BOOM in history is not going to be followed by the smallest bust in history...and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

bo_drinker

tommy75 wrote: »

Dunno, Is this: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-18324610.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^85428&radius=1.0&pageNumber=7&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DREGION%255E85428%26radius%3D1.0%26index%3D60 your way?

I mean who needs to be able to 'swing a cat' in a studio flat that costs nearly 1 million pounds in London? Everybodys rich down there. That flat could easily be 2 million next year if we have a V shaped recession...

They've either got a lot or owe a lot down there i t y f. I am nowhere near, I am in Hereford. (cider country)

bo_drinker

geoffky wrote: »

So sorry to disappoint you but the biggest BOOM in history is not going to be followed by the smallest bust in history...and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

Exactly the !!!!!! hasn't hit the fan properly yet. This is the beginning.

Diversified

The fact is, nobody knows. Even the experts, right at the top (the likes of Mervyn King) get it wrong - Bernanke, for example, famously stated in 2007 that the 'credit crunch' could cost as much as $100bn (!!). Average joes like you and me will never call the top/bottom, and we just have to go with gut feels. My gut feel is that its probably not a bad time to get involved, although we could see further downside in the housing market. This doesn't matter if we're holding the property for the long term. The capital gain is likely to be at least in line with inflation over, say a twenty year period (probably more, judging by the market's cyclical nature). We also get the yield from the property (rent). However, two things I would be wary about - firstly, the banks don't really want to lend. When they do, they're charging rediculous levels above base. Back in the day, they were charging 0.25-0.5 % above base for a tracker (or standard variable after the expiry of a fixed rate deal). Now, we're talking something in the region of 3% above. This will cause problems WHEN interest rates rise. What we have now is the exception, not the norm. Also, the government's 'quantitive easing' policy may be misjudged (again, top economists do call it wrong sometimes). It could lead to a period of inflation, and therefore much higher interest rates. Even if rates do go back to 5% (historically, a low/reasonable level), lots of property investors will find themselves lumbered with 8% mortgage payments. There is always a trade-off, always a risk!

whathavewedone

Am I the only one on here to think that Tommy is taking the P*** here? I dunno maybe he does want to buy a box that he can't fit a dining room table in and really thinks prices only go up but something tells me he's having a laugh here.

tommy75

Comon.. I mean look at this:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/how-far-do-house-prices-have-to-fall-14677.aspx

and this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5284411/British-economy-worst-fiscal-outlook-since-Second-World-War.html

this:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/may/06/recession-uk-economy-contraction-niesr-report

and this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8015704.stm

A while ago the news was nothing but bad. Now its all good 'green shoot' news, so the media must be right.. Theres not an ouce of bad news on the BBC anymore and employment figures are only going to get better here on in. Nobody has shown any proof that the economy is in a bad state and house prices will go down to a sensible level yet because they are at a sensible level now...

Look at these underpriced 'bargains' :

Huge 'Adams family' home for a measly 500k
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24491348.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE%5E752&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&radius=3.0&pageNumber=2&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DOUTCODE%255E752%26maxDaysSinceAdded%3D1%26radius%3D3.0%26index%3D10

'cottage for just 215k'
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-22923338.html?pageNumber=5&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DOUTCODE%255E2192%26sortByPriceDescending%3Dfalse%26includeSSTC%3Dtrue%26_includeSSTC%3Don%26index%3D40&locationIdentifier=OUTCODE^2192&radius=0.0 SOLD!!!!!!


and again, a 'garage' in Liverpool for nearly 200k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-20275306.html?locationIdentifier=OUTCODE%5E1350&includeSSTC=true&_includeSSTC=on&pageNumber=23&backToListURL=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html%3FlocationIdentifier%3DOUTCODE%255E1350%26includeSSTC%3Dtrue%26_includeSSTC%3Don%26index%3D220

No I see only 'bargains' around the UK, there has never been a better time to get on the ladder. Even if I was on the average wage of around 24k, I could buy half a terrace house on one of the government schemes that seem pretty worthwhile at the moment. Even a one bed flat looks like it will triple in value again within 2 years....

bo_drinker

I thought that early on, ramping to nowhere. He's been on the sauce