Halifax -1.7% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 22.6% down from peak.

the_ash_and_the_oak

dopester wrote: »

You can't protect everyone. You can't protect everyone from decisions to have MEWed and spent wildly. Not everyone will get money from Government to keep paying their mortgages. Protect everyone from dying and the estate needing to sell. From loss of job and wanting to downsize and accepting lowering their asking prices or accepting a lower offer in order to sell.

If anyone sells their homes at lower value, it brings down values on the same street, even if other owners have lived sensibly, own home outright, and have savings.

Come off it Woody please. Sales at the margin are the sales which are going through each month, and provide the data for the Halifax and Nationwide and the Land Registry to compile their figures, such at Halifax's -1.7% today.

Agree w some of this to an extent - think this is designed to mitigate falls rather than prevent them - resulting in prolonged gradual falls

Liking the other stuff you say about changing jobs, downsizing (plus divorce, death etc) - posted similar in other posts. All this inevitable over next few years imo, feeling this is next leg down of crash - current low IR for existing owners is temporary measure to slow crash down. Feeling the biggers falls to come next year more than right now imo as this starts to come more and more into play and not enough entrants to market

dopester

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Agree w some of this to an extent - think this is designed to mitigate falls rather than prevent them - resulting in prolonged gradual falls

Liking the other stuff you say about changing jobs, downsizing (plus divorce, death etc) - posted similar in other posts. All this inevitable over next few years imo, feeling this is next leg down of crash - current low IR for existing owners is temporary measure to slow crash down. Feeling the biggers falls to come next year more than right now imo as this starts to come more and more into play and not enough entrants to market

Some existing owners on very low-rate trackers might think they are doing alright, but their homes are still falling, and set to continue falling, drastically in value.

It might be a tonic for some to see them through difficult times, and keep them in their homes and able to pay off their debt, but it won't stop the fall in values of their homes.

Values are set at the margin, by those who do sell at lower prices, with many of the examples I gave and you added to.

It is tougher for new borrowers to get mortgages as we all know already, with bigger deposits, higher rates, stricter borrowing qualification in place - with lenders not really wanting to lend on depreciating assets.

One of the reasons interest rates are so low is that assets such as houses are depreciating in value.

If house prices are rising, you are forced to pay a price for your gains. When they are falling, banks are grateful just for the repayment of principal.

What you gain on the cost of your mortgage you more than lose on the size of your debt, which is inflating relative to your equity and income.

the_ash_and_the_oak

dopester wrote: »

Some existing owners on very low-rate trackers might think they are doing alright, but their homes are still falling, and set to continue falling, drastically in value.

It might be a tonic for some to see them through difficult times, and keep them in their homes and able to pay off their debt, but it won't stop the fall in values of their homes.

Values are set at the margin, by those who do sell at lower prices, with many of the examples I gave and you added to.

It is tougher for new borrowers to get mortgages as we all know already, with bigger deposits, higher rates, stricter borrowing qualification in place - with lenders not really wanting to lend on depreciating assets.

not really sure I'm suggesting much otherwise really tbh. agree it won't stop the fall in the value of their homes - but it will stop them being forced to sell right now - which means fewer sales - which means they won't really be coming through just yet - which is why we've had reduced falls in 2009 imo

the govt can prevent to a reasonable degree these sales coming into the figures...for a while. yes these homes are falling in value - but they are not for sale in great number atm - and if they were prices would be falling even faster than they have been - so it does have a slowing effect imo

you are right that normal everyday reasons means that people will need to sell...even if they try waiting for higher prices for a while - eventually people will move...next year, the year after etc etc - it is only then that the current falls (which are being dampened by not actually coming through in transactions) will manifest themselves properly - because it is only then they will be marked to market in any number - at precisely the time that FTBs will be finding it hard to raise finance w possibly much higher interest rates

If no one moved again until they died yes they would be falling in value but it wouldn't show up in the indexes until the moment of death/sale - the moment of going to market. it is only then - imo - that the results of lower transactions and prolonged falls will become properly apparent

dont really feel I'm saying anything different to you here. this is hardly a suggestion that prices are anywhere near a bottom or that the bottom will be reached anytime soon imo

skap7309

mitchaa wrote: »

You think our obsession with property will just vanish and our greed culture will follow path
Can't see it personally.
..........................................
That is my aim, do you suggest i change it? Why?

I was pointing more to the fact the recession has taken a grip and will continue to do so for a long while yet. Why oh why people think the housing market will be fine in the sharpest, deepest, meanest and baddest recession since the 1930's is beyond me.
Not wishing for it but cannot understand how exactly people can think in this way? :rolleyes:
Recession occurs = kiss goodbye to HPI.

Good times come back (read - easy access to money that does not belong to you) = kiss goodbye to HPC.

SIMPLE economics, surely......

PS - People will always have an obsession with property but the only reason so many made so much was because they had the very simple job of renovating then selling on 6 months later - they could have left it a shed and it would have still increased in value by 15% at one stage. Why does this not occur anymore? HPI is not here at the moment.

inspector_monkfish

mitchaa wrote: »

You think our obsession with property will just vanish and our greed culture will follow path

Can't see it personally.

My pension plan is FSP with work whilst living in my current home. Plan is to have the mortgage paid by the time im 40. As i will have no rent/mortgage to pay i will then buy a 2nd investment home of which i will finance over 15yrs, taking me to 55 and then possibly a 3rd in between the ages of 55 and retirement age of 68.

So my retirement plan is FSP + 2 house sales or rental incomes.

That is my aim, do you suggest i change it? Why?

nice.
do you have kids?

telfordwhite

Can't be bothered to read the whole thread so may be off beam here but aren't Aprils figures really based on prices agreed in the dark days of many months ago such is the lag between offering and completion?

So if there are "green shoots of recovery" and there is a spring bounce the figures will not show this for several months?

skap7309

telfordwhite wrote: »

Can't be bothered to read the whole thread so may be off beam here but aren't Aprils figures really based on prices agreed in the dark days of many months ago such is the lag between offering and completion?

So if there are "green shoots of recovery" and there is a spring bounce the figures will not show this for several months?

Land Registry - yes.

Haliwide - no.

dopester

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

not really sure I'm suggesting much otherwise really tbh. agree it won't stop the fall in the value of their homes - but it will stop them being forced to sell right now - which means fewer sales - which means they won't really be coming through just yet - which is why we've had reduced falls in 2009 imo

I had to go check because, I had a moment of fear there would be no homes for sale on Rightmove. Or PropertyBee would have shown some sudden reversal with big increases in asking prices.

What is the big deal about fewer sales? Why do you think fewer sales stops all values in the overall market from falling? Please explain it to me.

Compared to the boom years, transactions have been way down for a year+.

Guess what? Values have still fallen drastically, and it isn't over yet.

Around the UK, homeowners are reducing their asking prices. In-turn pressures sellers who were hoping to hold out for higher asking prices.

Say there were 3 houses for sale on our street, on the market like on Rightmove.

If one was fully modernised, with double glazing and new kitchen - whereas the other 2 houses need a lot of work and the sellers want £10K more - those two properties aren't really on the market.

The value of them has been lowered by the seller who is getting real and seeking whatever money/financing is out there, and even they haven't been able to get someone to buy.

All that matters is what happens at the margin, combined with sellers chasing less and harder to get mortgage financing, tougher job climate, pay-cuts, and about 20 other things we've already covered.

the_ash_and_the_oak

dopester wrote: »

I had to go check because, I had a moment of fear there would be no homes for sale on Rightmove. Or PropertyBee would have shown some sudden reversal with big increases in asking prices.

What is the big deal about fewer sales? Why do you think fewer sales stops all values in the overall market from falling? Please explain it to me.

Compared to the boom years, transactions have been way down for a year+.

Guess what? Values have still fallen drastically, and it isn't over yet.

kinda confused by this post. don't really feel I've said anything like its over yet or any time soon imo. feel its more like I'm saying 'it hasn't really started yet'.

don't think its that reduced sales will stop the market falling tbh. feel its more that reduced sales means the market will fall more slowly than next year. kind of a postponing effect

feel there will be more homes for sale in 2010 than 2009 .feel there will be more falls in 2010 than in 2009. don't really consider myself to be a bull when it comes to it imo

dopester

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

kinda confused by this post. don't really feel I've said anything like its over yet or any time soon imo. feel its more like I'm saying 'it hasn't really started yet'.

don't think its that reduced sales will stop the market falling tbh. feel its more that reduced sales means the market will fall more slowly than next year. kind of a postponing effect

feel there will be more homes for sale in 2010 than 2009 .feel there will be more falls in 2010 than in 2009. don't really consider myself to be a bull when it comes to it imo

Disagree. In late 2007, a house sold on our street for £350,000.

Now there are 3 houses on the street, with the owners trying to sell.

All houses very similar to one another, (except one fully modernised and asking the lowest price) at £280,000 to £290,000.

Now many people on the street will have valued their own homes upwards, as value rose in the boom years. Perhaps in March/April/May/June 2007 they were at the dining table chatting about the value of their homes being in the £320K-£360K range.

What do you think the values of their homes are worth now - as 3 sellers in very similar homes are trying to sell at lower values and still not getting buyers?

Reduced number of sales does not slow up the overall crash in values. It does not impact on the rapidity on the fall in values in any way. It isn't how it works.

2010 could have same 3 houses cut down to £240K-£250K asking. The rest of the homes on the street will be down-valued with them. Obviously if another owner tried to sell, no one is going to come along and offer them £350K peak, when no one is coming to buy at £280K-£290K.

Financial Values Can Disappear

People seem to take for granted that financial values can be created endlessly seemingly out of nowhere and pile up to the moon. Turn the direction around and mention that financial values can disappear into nowhere, and they insist that it is not possible. "The money has to go somewhere...It just moves from stocks to bonds to money funds...It never goes away...For every buyer, there is a seller, so the money just changes hands." That is true of the money, just as it was all the way up, but it's not true of the values, which changed all the way up.

Asset prices rise not because of "buying" per se, because indeed for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else - including those who own some of that asset and those who do not - need do is nothing.

Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other bids are competing with that buyer's, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. If a million other people own it, then their net worth goes down even though they did nothing. Two investors made it happen by transacting, and the rest of the investors made it happen by choosing not to disagree with their price. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land.

Anyone who watches the stock or commodity markets closely has seen this phenomenon on a small scale many times. Whenever a market "gaps" up or down on an opening, it simply registers a new value on the first trade, which can be conducted by as few as two people. It did not take everyone's action to make it happen, just most people's inaction on the other side. In financial market "explosions" and panics, there are prices at which assets do not trade at all as they cascade from one trade to the next in great leaps.