US Recession over before Summer end?

Dithering_Dad

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

yeah, i did guess that, just kidding !!

Just making it clear for any 'onlookers', I got the impression you knew what I really meant from the smilies.

There is a huge spectrum of people on MSE with a wider range of financial experience, I always try and explain myself fully because I remember what it was like when I was learning all this on here a couple of years ago (well, still learning now to be honest)

Degenerate

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Hope he is right.

I just have a feeling that we are nowhere near the end yet, can't put my finger on it though. Wish i could!!

I have a nagging feeling that something really major in the financial world is still to happen, in a severly negative way

Eastern Europe (foreign currency lending) and the Euro-zone are due to blow up in a big way. I'm not sure what the fall out for us here in Britain would be - thoughts?

Masomnia

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

There is a huge spectrum of people on MSE with a wider range of financial experience, I always try and explain myself fully because I remember what it was like when I was learning all this on here a couple of years ago (well, still learning now to be honest)

It is appreciated!

michaels

A: Inventory cycle

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So thayt have just had their biggest negative growth results for the last quarter, but will be growing again in 2 quarters.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

a_rather_tall_man

StevieJ wrote: »

Whoopee :j maybe the current stock market moves are a precursor, you never know.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

This seems to mirror Anthony Boltons stock market comments.

http://citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/comment/content.aspx?ID=339259

I work for an American company and just this week we were told the forward going order numbers do not suggest anything like this, in fact they don't even appeared to have bottomed out yet.


The article refers to 'key indicators' but never actually reveals what they are?! As for this statement in the article...

'However, ECRI notes that a resumption of growth has historically always followed a moderation of economic shrinkage. Observers who dismiss this reality, the group says, will fail to spot the improvement in conditions.'

So they say growth always follows after contraction? Well isn't that a fairly obvious statement to make because its hardly likely to contract forever unless the population starts shrinking at a rapid rate. Hardly analytical genius, in fact its one of the flimsiest articles I've wasted my time reading.

tomterm8

StevieJ wrote: »

Classic capitulation syndrome :eek:

We're in a bull market at the moment. The stock market has risen by 20% since it's trough.

So why would anyone be in capitulation? We should all be rushing towards the stock market with money in hand...

I've got to admit, I'm all out of the market. I made a tidy profit out of the aftermath of the crash, but I don't trust this bull market. At all. There are things that just feel wrong about how the stock market is behaving for it to be a true bull.

I don't trust the way the quants are behaving, I feel that there are some major liquidity problems up in the higher tiers of the stock market. You can see some odd girations in all kinds of markets. Sometimes, just before closing small companies can rise or fall by 8% for no reason. It's odd. I don't like it.

And I don't like the short squeeze in european risk. Why is soverign default risk falling accross the board in a region where governments are going to the IMF right, left and centre?

Czech repulic risk is the same as China. And I'm supposed to believe that?

Something odd this way comes.

sabretoothtigger

geoffky wrote: »

and there are fairy's at the bottom of my garden....

Sherlock Holmes confirmed this as correct, unfortunately experts can be wrong

http://i42.tinypic.com/nnphmt.jpg

StevieJ

a_rather_tall_man wrote: »

I work for an American company and just this week we were told the forward going order numbers do not suggest anything like this, in fact they don't even appeared to have bottomed out yet.


The article refers to 'key indicators' but never actually reveals what they are?! As for this statement in the article...

'However, ECRI notes that a resumption of growth has historically always followed a moderation of economic shrinkage. Observers who dismiss this reality, the group says, will fail to spot the improvement in conditions.'




So they say growth always follows after contraction? Well isn't that a fairly obvious statement to make because its hardly likely to contract forever unless the population starts shrinking at a rapid rate. Hardly analytical genius, in fact its one of the flimsiest articles I've wasted my time reading.

An article back in 2005 with discussion of their methodology, I have only read a little( I will get back to it later) but I think it gives more details. They seem to garner some respect.

A comment by Subir Lall, IMF moderator of the discussion
'Most forecasters of business cycles have a very dismal record in forecasting downturns and upturns in the economy. Economic Cycle Research Institute is one of the few which has actually had a very stellar record. They have been making pretty bold calls and i going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.'

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2005/tr062305.htm

StevieJ

michaels wrote: »

A: Inventory cycle

Succinctly put Thankyou.

Degenerate

tomterm8 wrote: »

And I don't like the short squeeze in european risk. Why is soverign default risk falling accross the board in a region where governments are going to the IMF right, left and centre?

Czech repulic risk is the same as China. And I'm supposed to believe that?

Something odd this way comes.

IMO, those countries that have taken it on the chin, exposed their banking losses and given adequate support, along with appropriate monetary & fiscal measures, should now be on the road to recovery. Those countries that are still harbouring zombie banks and failing to take bold enough measures still have a big fall coming.

The question is, when it happens, will our economies diverge or will the falling nations drag us back down with them?