US Recession over before Summer end?

StevieJ

Whoopee :j maybe the current stock market moves are a precursor, you never know.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

This seems to mirror Anthony Boltons stock market comments.

http://citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/comment/content.aspx?ID=339259

geoffky

and there are fairy's at the bottom of my garden....

Old_Slaphead

And how many times is it now that Anthony Bolton has called the bottom of the market ??

Seems Urquart Stewart doesn't agree

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/market-and-shares/content.aspx?ID=339340&re=5399&ea=41113

(Mind, I've never been a big fan of JUS either since I followed one of his recs and bought Marconi at £6 !!)

StevieJ

geoffky wrote: »

and there are fairy's at the bottom of my garden....

Been drinking again

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

Whoopee :j maybe the current stock market moves are a precursor, you never know.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

This seems to mirror Anthony Boltons stock market comments.

Things have stopped getting more horrific, that is undeniable.

The policies that have caused that to happen (if they've had much of an impact at all, which is something I doubt) are completely unsustainable apart from in the very short run:

- The US-ians are borrowing about 45% of what their Government plans to spend this year and on top of that huge amounts of money are being 'printed'. The UK Government is borrowing 1/7th of this year's Government spending.

- Central Bank interest rates are at all time lows in virtually every country in the industrialized world.

- It appears that the world's biggest banks are insolvent (although profitable). Will the US & UK Governments carry on with the bailout or will they go to a managed insolvency plan? If they chose the former then presumably the deficits will continue to rise.

inspector_monkfish

StevieJ wrote: »

Whoopee :j maybe the current stock market moves are a precursor, you never know.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

This seems to mirror Anthony Boltons stock market comments.

Hope he is right.

I just have a feeling that we are nowhere near the end yet, can't put my finger on it though. Wish i could!!

I have a nagging feeling that something really major in the financial world is still to happen, in a severly negative way

I work in the Money Markets for Treasury dept in a London Bank, and maybe its beacuse I've witnessed first hand so much craziness in the past 6mths, that has never been witnessed before (not in my lifetime anyway!), that I am always expecting more....

I seriously hope I am wrong, and its just paranoia on my part that has built up since last year.... But if someone had said a year ago that Lehman Brothers (and others) would go belly up, they would have been laughed out of town.....

fingers crossed for good news

System

geoffky wrote: »

and there are fairy's at the bottom of my garden....

Nice counter argument as always.

StevieJ

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

And how many times is it now that Anthony Bolton has called the bottom of the market ??

Seems Urquart Stewart doesn't agree

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/market-and-shares/content.aspx?ID=339340&re=5399&ea=41113

(Mind, I've never been a big fan of JUS either since I followed one of his recs and bought Marconi at £6 !!)

He called it once before, and I am sure he has made mistakes before - But crucially, not many

StevieJ

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Hope he is right.

I just have a feeling that we are nowhere near the end yet, can't put my finger on it though. Wish i could!!

I have a nagging feeling that something really major in the financial world is still to happen, in a severly negative way

I work in the Money Markets for Treasury dept in a London Bank, and maybe its beacuse I've witnessed first hand so much craziness in the past 6mths, that has never been witnessed before (not in my lifetime anyway!), that I am always expecting more....

I seriously hope I am wrong, and its just paranoia on my part that has built up since last year.... But if someone had said a year ago that Lehman Brothers (and others) would go belly up, they would have been laughed out of town.....

fingers crossed for good news

Surely your feeling are those you would expect at the bottom of a bear market and nadir of a economic recession.

lostinrates

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Hope he is right.

I just have a feeling that we are nowhere near the end yet, can't put my finger on it though. Wish i could!!

I have a nagging feeling that something really major in the financial world is still to happen, in a severly negative way

I work in the Money Markets for Treasury dept in a London Bank, and maybe its beacuse I've witnessed first hand so much craziness in the past 6mths, that has never been witnessed before (not in my lifetime anyway!), that I am always expecting more....

I seriously hope I am wrong, and its just paranoia on my part that has built up since last year.... But if someone had said a year ago that Lehman Brothers (and others) would go belly up, they would have been laughed out of town.....

fingers crossed for good news

Me too, the way you feel, not the working in a bank bit. I want the end, but I fearwe have more yuckiness to get through. I have previously been bit indulgently kind to those in the tin foil hat brigade but occasionally now I think things or hear rumours from decent sources that make me feel maybe I need one for myself.

inspector_monkfish

StevieJ wrote: »

Surely your feeling are those you would expect at the bottom of a bear market and nadir of a stock market recession.

possibly, but what has happened in money markets in last 6mths has never happened before, so its kind of unchartered waters....