US Recession over before Summer end?

inspector_monkfish

StevieJ wrote: »

BTW Monkfish I would be careful on here it is addictive, a bit like that white powder that used to find its way up some City types noses in the good ole days.

yeah, i know what you mean

Old_Slaphead

StevieJ wrote: »

He called it once before, and I am sure he has made mistakes before - But crucially, not many

He called it at least three times recently, now, early March (which may, with hindsight, turn out to be about right) and last Autumn (which was too early).

http://www.citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/fund-manager-interviews/content.aspx?ID=332675

Dithering_Dad

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

I have a nagging feeling that something really major in the financial world is still to happen, in a severly negative way

That's weird because I have the same nagging feeling. So much so that I moved my pension out of equities and back into cash on Wednesday.

inspector_monkfish

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

That's weird because I have the same nagging feeling. So much so that I moved my pension out of equities and back into cash on Wednesday.

bly me
thats a bit drastic

Dithering_Dad

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

bly me
thats a bit drastic

I'm up on the deal by £700 so far, though I expect that to be reversed over the short-term.

I took the view that I would rather lose out by missing gains than lose capital in another large fall. My caution has worked well so far, my pension is almost back to where it was at the peak when the FTSE was over 6000.

inspector_monkfish

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I'm up on the deal by £700 so far, though I expect that to be reversed over the short-term.

I took the view that I would rather lose out by missing gains than lose capital in another large fall. My caution has worked well so far, my pension is almost back to where it was at the peak when the FTSE was over 6000.

so, since wednesday, your cash has made £700 ?

bly me, at current interest rate, you must have a bl00dy big pension fund !!

I make it about £25million....
@ 0.50% x 2 days = £685

:D

Wookster

Generali wrote: »

Things have stopped getting more horrific, that is undeniable.

The policies that have caused that to happen (if they've had much of an impact at all, which is something I doubt) are completely unsustainable apart from in the very short run:

- The US-ians are borrowing about 45% of what their Government plans to spend this year and on top of that huge amounts of money are being 'printed'. The UK Government is borrowing 1/7th of this year's Government spending.

- Central Bank interest rates are at all time lows in virtually every country in the industrialized world.

- It appears that the world's biggest banks are insolvent (although profitable). Will the US & UK Governments carry on with the bailout or will they go to a managed insolvency plan? If they chose the former then presumably the deficits will continue to rise.

That sums it up nicely.

Governments, especially the UK, USA and Japan are going to have to reign in expenditure - these deficits cannot be sustained and their sheer gargantuan size will crowd out investing/ wealth creating activities - and when that happens the pace of decline will accelerate again.

We are so far away from sustainable growth

Dithering_Dad

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

so, since wednesday, your cash has made £700 ?

bly me, at current interest rate, you must have a bl00dy big pension fund !!

I make it about £25million....
@ 0.50% x 2 days = £685

:D

As it's in a cash fund, it didn't 'make' any money as such, but I set up a 'virtual portfolio' of the stocks I had and the day after I put my pension into cash, the virtual portfolio had dropped by £700.

My fund is standing at £85k, and has had a £1000 gain in a single day (when all the banks, especially lloyds and RBS, skyrocketed). It represented just over a 1% gain on the total portfolio.

For info, I set up a HL sipp before a deadline and secured a really good cash rate. Forget what it is now, but it's not available for new customers.

inspector_monkfish

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

As it's in a cash fund, it didn't 'make' any money as such, but I set up a 'virtual portfolio' of the stocks I had and the day after I put my pension into cash, the virtual portfolio had dropped by £700.

My fund is standing at £85k, and has had a £1000 gain in a single day (when all the banks, especially lloyds and RBS, skyrocketed). It represented just over a 1% gain on the total portfolio.

For info, I set up a HL sipp before a deadline and secured a really good cash rate. Forget what it is now, but it's not available for new customers.

yeah, i did guess that, just kidding !!

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Whoopee :j maybe the current stock market moves are a precursor, you never know.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

This seems to mirror Anthony Boltons stock market comments.

http://citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/comment/content.aspx?ID=339259

So thayt have just had their biggest negative growth results for the last quarter, but will be growing again in 2 quarters.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: