NATIONWIDE - Actually, Prices went up

Dan:_4

dervish wrote: »

an unfortunate comment.

Insensitive, abusive, sarcastic and unhelpful towards your argument.

Another case of personal attacks masquerdaing as debate.

I haven't got an argument. This thread is a link to an article in the telegraph. Some people don't like it, fair enough, but I didn’t write it. Geoff said I am wrong, and it must be frustrating that my assets are falling 20% a year. This is incorrect and an assumption, so I retaliated by making the assumption that he must be frustrated FTBer.

mrstinchcombe

House prices are rising and will continue to rise.

Likeweise !!!!!philes have genetically more in common with crabs than they do with you or me. Now that's scientific fact... there's no real evidence for it, but it is scientific fact.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

All this points to is that we're seeing a slowdown in the percentage falls in the property market. We're not going to see a sudden boom, but a continued slow erosion of house price values.

FTBers with deposits ready should look seriously at buying their house within the next 9 months, not because houses are going to go shooting up in value but because you'll will gain more from cheap mortgages than from the gradual decline of house prices.

IMHO.

If looking in midterm kinda agree. Will become more difficult to buy again at this point. Until this point we'll see smaller falls - it is only when rates go up strongly that we will see a more pronounced effect on prices imo. Not because of current owners struggling but because higher rates will reduce amount ftbs will be able to borrow. Kinda feeling that will be the point we see more of an effect on prices rather than currently

ad9898_3

Nice one Dan, (grrrr:D), no seriously I'm not going to knock any figures that can be backed up, as obviously I will use them myself. One thing I would say though, figures aside, in the real world I'm not seeing any rises whatsoever, neither last month (Nationwide),nor in January when Halifax reported a rise, in fact at no time that I have been using Property Bee (July 2008) have I seen a house whose price as has risen, that actually sold.

But of course, figures are figures, and we all use them.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Nice one Dan, (grrrr:D), no seriously I'm not going to knock any figures that can be backed up, as obviously I will use them myself. One thing I would say though, figures aside, in the real world I'm not seeing any rises whatsoever, neither last month (Nationwide),nor in January when Halifax reported a rise, in fact at no time that I have been using Property Bee (July 2008) have I seen a house's whose prices have risen, that have actually sold.

But of course, figures are figures, and we all use them.

Thanks Ad,

At the end of the day you can manipulate figures and STATS as much as you want, and that's what we all do every month.

Anyway, I've had enough fun and games for one week. It's Friday, the sun is out, and im going down the pub.

Degenerate

People may try to seize upon a single figure to prove a point, but when you take all the figures from different surveys over the past few months, it paint a pretty clear picture that we are bumping along the bottom. Sorry bears, those 50%+ overall fall you were hoping for are beginning to look remote.

Dithering_Dad

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

If looking in midterm kinda agree. Will become more difficult to buy again at this point. Until this point we'll see smaller falls - it is only when rates go up strongly that we will see a more pronounced effect on prices imo. Not because of current owners struggling but because higher rates will reduce amount ftbs will be able to borrow. Kinda feeling that will be the point we see more of an effect on prices rather than currently

I see your logic, but is it not the case that the only time the government dare put up interest rates will be when they feel the country is coming out of recession and can bear the additional strain, otherwise they run the risk of putting us back into recession, or at the least lengthing the downturn?

If that is the case, and interest rates increase when we're coming out of recession then homeowers will feel more secure in their jobs, and hopefully the rate rises will have been telegraphed to the point that most people, who need to, will have arranged fixes. The only homeowners impacted will be the small number of people who have been unwise enough to not fix their mortgages and get hit by higher rates.

The main victims of the governments mismanagement of the economy will once again be those FTBers who originally couldn't afford to buy a home because they were too expensive (due to HPI) and will now be unable to afford a home because the mortgage payments are too high (due to interest rates).

FoxtonsRIP

Dan: wrote: »

Good to see the Telegraph on the case:

Nationwide House Price Index: Actually, prices went up

You really are grasping at straws now. So much in fact that I think you should change your name to Desperate Dan. :rotfl:

skap7309

Wookster wrote: »

Where's that wonderful head in the sand picture?

Just here my friend!

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I see your logic, but is it not the case that the only time the government dare put up interest rates will be when they feel the country is coming out of recession and can bear the additional strain, otherwise they run the risk of putting us back into recession, or at the least lengthing the downturn?

If that is the case, and interest rates increase when we're coming out of recession then homeowers will feel more secure in their jobs, and hopefully the rate rises will have been telegraphed to the point that most people, who need to, will have arranged fixes. The only homeowners impacted will be the small number of people who have been unwise enough to not fix their mortgages and get hit by higher rates.

The main victims of the governments mismanagement of the economy will once again be those FTBers who originally couldn't afford to buy a home because they were too expensive (due to HPI) and will now be unable to afford a home because the mortgage payments are too high (due to interest rates).

I don't really see how it can happen this way tho. Ok so say everyone sees it coming and buys just before the rises and gets their fixes in. But what happens next? Fine if everyone is now in their dream home - but what about people who then need to be move for work, bigger house, divorce, death - all the everyday things that happen the. Sure they'll port their mortgage over and keep their fixed low rates. But who are they going to sell to? Somewhere along the line we're back to FTBs. There will surely always need to be someone at the bottom of the chain - even after everyone's all fixed up. At this point (post IRs going up) they are going to be leant a sum of money which is going to be less than it might have been a year previously if they are now going to be paying more interest on it.

I still think its not whether current owners will get through, that will decide prices, its how much new buyers are going to have (not the current 'waiting' FTBs that were priced out in 2007 - however many of them there actually are. But the ones after them)