Brtitain first out of recession?

abaxas

Generali wrote: »

TBH, I'd take the UK's GDP numbers with a pinch of salt. Imagine the conversation:

Comrade economist: If you don't report growth figures for your region above 3% (as per the last 5 year plan) we'll sack you and imprison you. What are your growth figures.
Deputy Vice Comrade statistician: Ooooh, what a coincidence. 3.1%!

I jest of course but what you say is true. Apparently things are tough for this year's 9,000,000 graduates and there are genuine fears of trouble if things don't improve before the next lot come onto the jobs market.

I've corrected it for you.

Generali

abaxas wrote: »

I've corrected it for you.

Thanks abaxas!

Do you really think Britain's reported stats are bent for political (or other) reasons?

abaxas

Generali wrote: »

Thanks abaxas!

Do you really think Britain's reported stats are bent for political (or other) reasons?

All statistics that use 'magical sauce' are bent unless they also give out the raw data to check them.

Eg unemployment now magically = claimant count.
Inflation is a number that doesnt actually compare prices, etc etc

So I'm going to say this once...

'Gordon Brown is a love god' *


* hedonistic adjustment has been used to supplant words on a similar language.

michaels

I think the UK economy could be a different shape but not sure about first to recover.

Ironically because we have less manufacturing we are being hit less hard by the inventory cycle than economies like Germany and Japan. The sh*t hit last autumn and people stopped major purchases worldwide - house, cars, durable goods but people are less likely to purchase less takeaways and haircuts as in the great scheme it doesn't make much odds...Manufacturers (ie mostly people not in the UK) suddenly had loads of unsold cars and fridges and slashed production to much less than even the low level of demand to reduce all those expensive stocks (given banks unwillingness to lend stocks became extremely expensive to hold). Hence a very sharp contraction for these manufacturers and less for service based economies like the UK.

However once stocks have been run down the manufacturers will switch back on their factories or be it running at 90% of previous capacity and growth will return whereas for the UK the gradual downward trend will continue as the structural adjustment of no longer spending more than we earn having mistakenly thought rising asset value represented rising real wealth, magnified with the Govt which had also been living beyond its means by misunderstanding that we were in a boom and that the budget balance should have been balanced cyclically having to match its income and expenditure too.

(Sadly this is likely to be achieved by increasing the states share of national income rather adjusting spending to match the economies productive potential - as an aside did anyone notice how when national income was rising the state commandeered all the increase in the interests of fairness but now as it is shrinking there is no corresponding reduction in govt spending to keep the states share constant)

Generali

abaxas wrote: »

All statistics that use 'magical sauce' are bent unless they also give out the raw data to check them.

Eg unemployment now magically = claimant count.
Inflation is a number that doesnt actually compare prices, etc etc

So I'm going to say this once...

'Gordon Brown is a love god' *


* hedonistic adjustment has been used to supplant words on a similar language.

Clearly with stats it's important to understand what is being measured and why.

Do you think there's deliberate fiddling of numbers or is it more that the statisticians are directed to produce statistics that are likely to be more helpful to the Government?

My feeling is that the latter, whilst not ideal, is part of the cut and thrust of politics. The former would be pretty shocking as it shows Government deliberately and systematically using the tools of Government to lie to the governed.

LisbonLaura

ad9898 wrote: »

Don't mention that word, there is 'green shoots' didn't you know, starting with the reduction in unemployment this week, when the figures are released.:rolleyes:

OOH how could I have forgotten that the 'D' word is a spanking offence

OK, I will revise my bold statement:-

The real question is who will survive the err ...............civil war, depression, .... downturn, yes, that's the word, downturn.


On reflection it's a shame that such a cute little island race couldn't survive in isolation by selling each other a major basic need at ever increasing prices & ends up being side-swiped by lesser beings from the uncivilised world.

Ah well...anyone for tulips?

Foam nuggets then? --- Irish foam nuggets though, no cheap imitations here

ad9898_3

LisbonLaura wrote: »

OOH how could I have forgotten that the 'D' word is a spanking offence

OK, I will revise my bold statement:-

The real question is who will survive the err ...............civil war, depression, .... downturn, yes, that's the word, downturn.


On reflection it's a shame that such a cute little island race couldn't survive in isolation by selling each other a major basic need at ever increasing prices & ends up being side-swiped by lesser beings from the uncivilised world.

Ah well...anyone for tulips?

Foam nuggets then? --- Irish foam nuggets though, no cheap imitations here

Is that you in your avatar ?, and if so where do you live ?:D, surely not Lisbon.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Is that you in your avatar ?, and if so where do you live ?:D, surely not Lisbon.

If I was a gambling man I would say she is British and lives in Portugal

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

“If you are looking at 2010 we are going to be first out,” said Peter Spencer, Item’s chief economic adviser. “The signs are positive that the monetary policy committee’s aggressive tactics are working. The credit crunch may finally be easing and with it will come the beginning of the end of the recession.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/budget/article6122459.ece

I see you missed this bit out....

The Ernst & Young Item Club’s eve-of-budget forecast, using the Treasury’s model of the economy

Using the treasurys model of the economy?! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

This would be the model that said we would be out of this by Spring 2009.

Oh....thats now!

tommy75

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4378322/Britain-to-suffer-worst-recession-of-any-advanced-nation-says-IMF.html

to me, to you, to me, to you, to me, to you..