Removing VI from the argument.

GucciMane

I live in ATL and we do not have a housing shortage. Its just that prices need to come down in order for the poorest to get on. Alot of the poorest areas in ATL are being demolished, which is not fair. They could really be used.

Check out Bowen Homes for example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdplH2-T9g4

It comes to the stage where alot of this property is stripped for its base metals and sold off.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

Im not saying prices are going to start rising, far from it. But can you honesty say things are as bad as they were 12 months ago?

I can honestly say its not as bad as 12 months ago.

It's worse.

Therefore we have the drastic measures of QE, record breaking interest rate levels and ever increasing unemployment.

ad9898_3

adr0ck wrote: »

come on ad i've posted 10 valid facts what now

I'll be honest ad, some of your points are valid, some are soundbites of the like I have mentioned, and some have no substance at all.

Lets have a look at them

1. number of new houses being built at record lows- true but who cares, there are 1 million on rightmove alone.
2. record 2 million on housing waiting lists - why aren't 1 million of these people buying the 1 million on rightmove, unless of course, they are too expensive.
3. average house value now on trend - wrong, trend has been skewed by high inflation in the past and the HPI bubble this time
4. average first time buyer mortgage now @ less than 3x income - What does this mean, the average wage should buy the average house, or have I missed something.
5. interest rates @ record low - basing a 25 yr loan on IR's of today is financial dumbness in the extreme, unless you take out a 25 yr fix or you don't think rates will rise for 25 yrs.
6. level of personal debt now decreasing - Is it ?, even if it is, it's still huge and will take donkey's years to pay off.
7. no stamp duty costs to purchase average house - Yes, agree with this, but the equivalent stamp duty money on the average house is disappearing in the HPC in about 15 days.
8. increasing numbers of lenders returning with products for FTB's - Ok, I will give you this one, however they are expensive and have 'catches' attached to most of them i.e HSBC.
9. QE - does anyone think this will be a good idea going into the future, as the old saying goes 'you get nothing for nothing.'
10. panic starting to set in over at housepricecrash that they've missed the boat - he he, is that the boat on the horizon who's cargo consists of 1 months Nationwide figures and 900 extra mortgages that has just been torpedoed by today's negative equity figures. :rotfl:

michaels

Can we add 3 million home-owners have too little equity to move to the original list?

Newbird

sorry, scratched - see below duplicate post....

Newbird

Dan: wrote: »

Unemplyment - Fair enough, this will be the last thing to improve and will continue long after the recession, as usual.
Agreed

Mortgage refusals - well, lending is up
Is that on applications completed? or amount lent out?


40% Deposit required for best deals - Nothing new
Granted, but less and less ppl can even get to application stage now due to lowering multipliers and minimum deposits required going up. I speak from experience from last Autumn to right now...


Downward trend on prices - Sure, but this trend wont last forever and signs are the bottom is approaching.
Where are these signs exactly pls?

IRs can only go up - Of course they will, but only when prices have bottomed and the recession is near over. In the meantime people will grab these low interest deals which will help prices bottom out.
Agreed. Hope this proves correct!

Im not saying prices are going to start rising, far from it. But can you honesty say things are as bad as they were 12 months ago?
Errrm....Nope - I can confirm they are worse!!

..........................

adr0ck

ad9898 wrote: »

I'll be honest ad, some of your points are valid, some are soundbites of the like I have mentioned, and some have no substance at all.

Lets have a look at them

1. number of new houses being built at record lows- true but who cares, there are 1 million on rightmove alone.
yes 1 million on rightmove and 1 million looking for somewhere else to live
........................................when most people sell a house they buy another (its called a chain).....................you cannot count all properties for sale on rightmove as empty eg when i had my house for sale on rightmove i was also looking at other properties to buy on rightmove i sold one and bought another (this is how most housing transactions work)

your using this as an excuse not to answer the original point.......we are not building enough houses



2. record 2 million on housing waiting lists - why aren't 1 million of these people buying the 1 million on rightmove, unless of course, they are too expensive.

we have a affordable housing shortage...we should be building more................this always strikes me as a bit strange with all the bears.....................whenever i post about the fact we need to build more homes i get slated........why?...if we have more homes house prices will come down


3. average house value now on trend - wrong, trend has been skewed by high inflation in the past and the HPI bubble this time

its now on trend..........for the last two years.........lots of people on this forumn have been going on about how houses were too expensive and using the trend line to justify it.......now were on trend suddenly the trend line is wrong........make your mind up

4. average first time buyer mortgage now @ less than 3x income - What does this mean, the average wage should buy the average house, or have I missed something.
its means that the average mortage is now below 3x income..................not been this for a while....this is a good thing

5. interest rates @ record low - basing a 25 yr loan on IR's of today is financial dumbness in the extreme, unless you take out a 25 yr fix or you don't think rates will rise for 25 yrs.
of course interest rates will rise....however low interest rates will help the economy get back on track (it will take a while)

6. level of personal debt now decreasing - Is it ?, even if it is, it's still huge and will take donkey's years to pay off.
yes it is


7. no stamp duty costs to purchase average house - Yes, agree with this, but the equivalent stamp duty money on the average house is disappearing in the HPC in about 15 days.
its still a saving

8. increasing numbers of lenders returning with products for FTB's - Ok, I will give you this one, however they are expensive and have 'catches' attached to most of them i.e HSBC.
yes but its a start

9. QE - does anyone think this will be a good idea going into the future, as the old saying goes 'you get nothing for nothing.'
no not really but its probably maybe needed (lets be honest no one really knows...on how much good it will do)...and yes in the future will probably be a nightmare..................buts so's our aging population etc

10. panic starting to set in over at housepricecrash that they've missed the boat - he he, is that the boat on the horizon who's cargo consists of 1 months Nationwide figures and 900 extra mortgages that has just been torpedoed by today's negative equity figures.
this one was a joke (i had to make it to 10)

Graham_Devon

Probbably.....its a start....yes but its still a saving

Sorry ardrock. Didn't convince me!

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Come Steve, even you don't believe that bollox, there are no mortgages at bank base rate, and anyone who bases affordability of a 25 yr loan on this rate needs a strait jacket unless of course you take out a 25 year fix, and though I admit I haven't looked, I doubt there is one at less than 5.5%, which with the base rate being so low, is as good as it ever will be.

Copied from another thread, mortgage quote does not seem excessive to me (if it is true) and less than I was paying 20 years ago.


well im from scotlando
out take home per month ME 600
partner S/E - Averaged 1600
so thats 2200 before tax a amonth mortgage quote we have been given £380 a month

what percentage si taht?

Thrugelmir

Dan: wrote: »

IRs can only go up - Of course they will, but only when prices have bottomed and the recession is near over. In the meantime people will grab these low interest deals which will help prices bottom out.

If have the deposit saved (ie 35%) and can therefore borrow at a competitive rate of interest. Buying now than renting is a sensible choice for many. As in actual in cash terms outgoings are at least the same or lower to buy.

With downward pressures on pay, or more than than lightly a pay freeze for many in the next year or two. Even the current fixed rate deals of 4% are at a cost in real terms.

Interest rates are not being set to control house prices from falling further. They are in an attempt to keep the banks lending to each other on the overnight markets. LIBOR is still sitting around the 1.5% level which has a far more reaching impact on mortgage rates than BOE. Tracker mortgages are no longer the "in" product now that the supply of cheap money has dried up. As available products have diminished recently.

The rise in interest rates is heading this way like an express train. When it hits its going to be painful. The borrowing that the Government in power over the short to medium term will need to raise is vast. The external view of the UK economy will determine the price of the money not the BOE. To attract deposits our banks will need to follow suit.

The property market is currently treading water supported by a low BOE base rate. So another 5 -10% fall in prices is likely in the not to distance future. As the increased cost of borrowing will determine individuals ability to repay debt, both secured and unsecured.

The recession itself will be over this year. The road to sustained growth though will be a long hard slog.