Removing VI from the argument.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Pressure off potential sellers that have come off fixed rates, I remember you lot saying 'wait until they come off those two year fixes' Also whatever way you look at it rates available to most are a lot lower than the last recession.

When they come off their fixes, they will be on SVR, which is not much better than their fixes I'd be happy to bet.

They now won't be able to remortgage either.

No one could have predicted that the BOE would put rates down this far, but they certainly won't be a lot better off on SVR after a low fix. And they will certainly face huge rises and a very tough time remortgaging.

Mines still 3.75% over bank rate, and I'm on SVR after a 2 year fix.

I'm paying around 5% less than I was when I was on my fix. So they are not going to be very much better off for coming off the fix, at all.

JayScottGreenspan

lostinrates wrote: »

Its almost impossible isn't it, to be truely dispassionate in analysis.

So true.

Being able to look at something in a truly dispassionate way, without rose-tinted specs, is what separates the men from the boys IMO.

There are quite lot of posters who don't even try. If someone wants house prices to rise, then cherry picks evidence to support this, then posts arguing house prices will rise why should anyone pay any attention to them whatsoever??? They may have a brain, but in no way are they employing it to turn the available information to their advantage.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Pressure off potential sellers that have come off fixed rates, I remember you lot saying 'wait until they come off those two year fixes' Also whatever way you look at it rates available to most are a lot lower than the last recession.

Indeed, but what I'm saying is any FTB'r who stetches themselves now (and lets face it most people do), while rates are this low are going to be fubar'd in a few years. I wonder how many are saying 'what if the base rate goes upto 6%, or higher'. I would suggest very few. Especially if they are the calibre of that knob jockey who phoned Martin Lewis on GMTV asking 'where can I get a 100% mortgage.':D

lostinrates

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

Being able to look at something in a truly dispassionate way, without rose-tinted specs, is what separates the men from the boys IMO.

I'm neither. I'm destined never to fit in here.

(I agreed with your post though: I think there are fewer people who comply with that description than there are people on the Coven's list of MSE economy furom top totty. )

Masomnia

I'd say I'm pretty damn bullish, yet I'm not a homeowner, and since I'm only just 20 a falling market would mean it would be much easier for me to get on the housing ladder in the next ten years.

It doesn't just come down to VI, I just think a drop of anything more than 50% is not going to happen. Probably no less than 40%. If anything like the doom scenarios presented by a lot of people on here were going to happen we wouldn't see mixed results like the slight increase for March on one of the indexes. It just doesn't make sense that so many people will hold off for that long. There will come a point where people start buying in as the houses they aspire to become affordable, that point in my opinion will not be as low as 50% or a greater fall.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I have an interest both ways.

One way, my house is falling, and I am in negative equity right now (based on average prices, I believe I'm not on local, but don't really know to tell the truth).

The other way, I want to be able to buy another house and am saving to do so.

So I have VI in both bull and bear areas. However, I also remember just how hard it was for me to get what I have. And I also see all those around me, my age, who haven't a hope. I mean seriously, anyone who wants HPI for themselves, really isn't thinking about just how bad it will be for the next generation or their kids. It's simply fuelled by "I'm ok Jack".

HPI does nothing for me. While my house rises, so does every other house, so in effect, I'm never any better off, unless I sell and dont buy....which leaves me without my own home.

If your in NE how are you going to overload your current property to buy another one? Surly this will cost you your savings?

adr0ck

come on ad i've posted 10 valid facts what now

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Indeed, but what I'm saying is any FTB'r who stetches themselves now (and lets face it most people do), while rates are this low are going to be fubar'd in a few years. I wonder how many are saying 'what if the base rate goes upto 6%, or higher'. I would suggest very few. Especially if they are the calibre of that knob jockey who phoned Martin Lewis on GMTV asking 'where can I get a 100% mortgage.':D

But as Devon points out they are not that low for some including FTB's but still a lot lower than many were predicting 18 months ago. They will however cushion a great many others who may have come under pressure with higher rates. Anyway if I was looking at a fixed rate it would be a minimum of 10 years. BTW I was paying 15% not long after I became a FTBer :eek:

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Disagree Dan, Unemployment ?, mortgage refusals ?, tax bombshell ? 40% deposit req. for best deals ? downward trend in prices ? Budget deficit improving, are you kidding ? IR's that can only go up ?

None of those are showing even the slightest hint of improvement.

Unemplyment - Fair enough, this will be the last thing to improve and will continue long after the recession, as usual.

Mortgage refusals - well, lending is up

40% Deposit required for best deals - Nothing new

Downward trend on prices - Sure, but this trend wont last forever and signs are the bottom is approaching

IRs can only go up - Of course they will, but only when prices have bottomed and the recession is near over. In the meantime people will grab these low interest deals which will help prices bottom out.

Im not saying prices are going to start rising, far from it. But can you honesty say things are as bad as they were 12 months ago?

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

If your in NE how are you going to overload your current property to buy another one? Surly this will cost you your savings?

Yes, it will cost me. But as I took a 90% mortgage on the dreaded shared ownership route, my mortgage is piddly.

I didn't indebt myself up to the eyeballs, though have got mauled on here for not doing so. In other words, because I opted out of the rampant HPI system in 2006 and went for this instead, I'm sitting pretty and my savings can outstrip the falls.

When interest rates start rising, even better, for me personally, as again, the interest I get on savings will be higher than the rise in cost on my mortgage.