Removing VI from the argument.

ad9898_3

Ok, some will know I tried, in a light hearted, tongue in cheek manner to become a bull for a day, to try things from the other side, unsurprisingly it didn't work out:D.

But it did get me thinking. When I was trying to construct my 'bullish' posts, I found it really difficult to remove my obvious VI from the argument, I obviously want prices to fall a little more before I buy, on the other hand the bulls on here, at the very least want prices to stop falling, and most probably would like some kind of HPI.

My problem came, when I honestly couldn't think of anything bullish apart from the Nationwide figure for this month and the 4% rise in approvals, these 2 'facts' look quite good in isolation, but when the 'whole picture' is painted, i.e.

1. Mortgage approvals are the lowest in history so must go up at some point.
2. Nationwide's figure is not a trend but a blip after 17 consecutive falls.

....................it doesn't look so rosy, worse news is to come though, these 2 items are the only bit of bullish news that have even the remotest substance to them. All the rest of the news you hear are headlines or soundbites in the media from people who's very livelyhoods depend on a thriving housing market, they have no real substance at all.

Now from a bearish point of view the 'facts' are much more compelling.

1. Rising unemployment..................................................................fact.
2. Shrinking GDP...........................................................................fact.
3. 50% reduction in mortgage finance since peak.............................fact.
4. IR's that can only go one way......................................................fact.
5. A long downward trend in house prices.......................................fact.
6. Huge deposits req. to get a decent mortgage rate.........................fact.
7. Rising NI in 2011, other rises in tax sure to follow.......................fact.
8. Massive deficit, which will take a decade to get under control......fact.
9. Extremely tight lending, leading to a 400% increase in refusals......fact.
10. Massive personal debt (secured and unsecured)........................fact.

I'm sure I've missed some things off, but you get the picture. I guess what I'm saying is, when you remove or try to remove the your own VI, how do you see things ? Can anyone post more bullish reasons than the 2 I have mentioned that actually have either some trend behind them or some 'real hard facts' going forward. I just can't think of anything else.

Dan:_4

All those items you have listed are showing signs of improvement.

Generali

Reasons to be bullish*...1, 2, 3 (with apologies to Ian Dury):

1. Low interest rates make mortgage payments more affordable - if you have some cash in the bank you can probably keep up the payments for a while longer too if you lose your job. People can bid house prices up now mortgage payments are more affordable.
2. Falling supply - builders are scaling back the number of houses they're putting up
3. QE increasing funds available to be lent by the banks









*on house prices

StevieJ

You obviously don't look hard enough BR 0.5% they can only go one way because they are so low :beer:

adr0ck

1. number of new houses being built at record lows
2. record 2 million on housing waiting lists
3. average house value now on trend
4. average first time buyer mortgage now @ less than 3x income
5. interest rates @ record low
6. level of personal debt now decreasing
7. no stamp duty costs to purchase average house
8. increasing numbers of lenders returning with products for FTB's
9. QE
10. panic starting to set in over at housepricecrash that they've missed the boat

Graham_Devon

Well I have an interest both ways.

One way, my house is falling, and I am in negative equity right now (based on average prices, I believe I'm not on local, but don't really know to tell the truth).

The other way, I want to be able to buy another house and am saving to do so.

So I have VI in both bull and bear areas. However, I also remember just how hard it was for me to get what I have. And I also see all those around me, my age, who haven't a hope. I mean seriously, anyone who wants HPI for themselves, really isn't thinking about just how bad it will be for the next generation or their kids. It's simply fuelled by "I'm ok Jack".

HPI does nothing for me. While my house rises, so does every other house, so in effect, I'm never any better off, unless I sell and dont buy....which leaves me without my own home.

I'm more bullish for exactly the reasons stated above. The ONLY positive stories have VI attached, or are simply spun so far, they miss out whole sets of crucial data to make their point, a point they couldnt make if they actually included stuff that should be included (bank profits being one....they say profits, but ignore the massive bailout and QE injections).

I have noticed over the last couple of months, paragraphs taken from full write ups now, instead of linking up to the source....the paragraph that suits, instead of actually giving the full story...as that paragraph has a hint of optimism.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

You obviously don't look hard enough BR 0.5% they can only go one way because they are so low :beer:

Come Steve, even you don't believe that bollox, there are no mortgages at bank base rate, and anyone who bases affordability of a 25 yr loan on this rate needs a strait jacket unless of course you take out a 25 year fix, and though I admit I haven't looked, I doubt there is one at less than 5.5%, which with the base rate being so low, is as good as it ever will be.

lostinrates

Its almost impossible isn't it, to be truely dispassionate in analysis.

I want the market to stabilise, rather than go up or down, so I see lots of fear in either direction, lol.

My fundamental underlying belief is tha buying isn't going to be right for everyone. I can't help thinking that its all cart before horse and that what we need first is a different approach to tanancies, so that they become a feasable alternative to buying.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

All those items you have listed are showing signs of improvement.

Disagree Dan, Unemployment ?, mortgage refusals ?, tax bombshell ? 40% deposit req. for best deals ? downward trend in prices ? Budget deficit improving, are you kidding ? IR's that can only go up ?

None of those are showing even the slightest hint of improvement.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Come Steve, even you don't believe that bollox, there are no mortgages at bank base rate, and anyone who bases affordability of a 25 yr loan on this rate needs a strait jacket unless of course you take out a 25 year fix, and though I admit I haven't looked, I doubt there is one at less than 5.5%, which with the base rate being so low, is as good as it ever will be.

Pressure off potential sellers that have come off fixed rates, I remember you lot saying 'wait until they come off those two year fixes' Also whatever way you look at it rates available to most are a lot lower than the last recession.

mewbie_2

Come on ad9898, you weren't trying at all. It's easy to be a bull. First disengage all brain cells, never read any news less than happly clappy stuff, have a few beers and come on here attacking middle of the road posters such as my good self.

Bulls.... I might be joking.