Property Sales Come To Life

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

To be honest, the bull run of the last few days has been entertaining, it won't last though, however it will come back again, then die again, then come again....etc.. until we emerge from recesssion, the budget deficit is paid back and unemployment starts to fall, THEN and only then will we see any sustained stablising of the market.

Reasonable comment until 'the budget deficit is paid back THEN and only then will we see any sustained stablising of the market' Are you suggesting that all will not be well untill we pay the deficit off I thought we had only just paid off the loan for WW2 that didn't seem to hold back the housing market.

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Yep, and if they post a rise next month, they will be liars again.:D Seriously though has anyone been looking on Righmove or the other sites and seen any actual rises in property that have subsequently turned in to SSTC and the appeared on the Land Registry ?, I can honestly say within 3 miles from me I have not seen any such sale for more than 18 months.

This will takes ages. When the crash started it took months to see the effect on rightmove and land registry.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Reasonable comment until 'the budget deficit is paid back THEN and only then will we see any sustained stablising of the market' Are you suggesting that all will not be well untill we pay the deficit off I thought we had only just paid off the loan for WW2 that didn't seem to hold back the housing market.

The deficit, in modern times is huge Steve, and the inevitable tax rises that will come into force between 2011- 2016 will hurt any kind of recovery that we are likely to see in that time frame. Look for some stealthy tax moves from Darling in the budget, that won't come into force until he is long gone, (2011 onwards)

As far as WW2 is concerned, we had sustained periods of high inflation and wage inflation over the last 60 years which would reduce the debt in real terms, this time I see higher inflation (as we are now seeing in the CPI figures) but critically, income from savings and wages is going into reverse.

The current situation is of course, just like the housing bubble, unsustainable, but it might just see us through to the election, which is the only hope Brown has of retaining power. After that ???, times will be very difficult indeed, whoever takes power.

Wig

There was an announcement yesterday I think, something along the lines of .....

the Alliance and leicester had been downgraded to bank stability class 'F' (?) by the European bank (?) or something like that, it was based on the opinion that UK house prices had a long way still to fall.

luvpump

There are 4 very Important Letters in this Article ... give us an "R" Give us an "I" give us a "C" give us an "S" ... what do you have ???? ....Disingenuous vested Interest Ramping... Little more than that ....

Dan:_4

luvpump wrote: »

There are 4 very Important Letters in this Article ... give us an "R" Give us an "I" give us a "C" give us an "S" ... what do you have ???? ....Disingenuous vested Interest Ramping... Little more than that ....

Why didn't you post this when RICS were painting a gloomy picture over the last 18 months?

robin_banks

From the piece;

Ian Perry, a spokesman for the RICS, said: “Buyer interest is starting to gain momentum but will remain frustrated while mortgage finance is scarce. Accessibility for first-time buyers is likely to remain difficult.”

Which means prices will HAVE to come down. Prospective buyers will need a bigger deposit.

chucky

luvpump wrote: »

There are 4 very Important Letters in this Article ... give us an "R" Give us an "I" give us a "C" give us an "S" ... what do you have ???? ....Disingenuous vested Interest Ramping... Little more than that ....

you can't have it both ways, to be fair you remind me of the majority of HPCers on here... you were one of those people that always used a RICS forecast to make your point.

how come RICS isn't good enough now?

luvpump wrote: »

http://uk.reuters.com/article/summitNews/idUKL1863404220080219

A couple of Quotes from there 2008 "Predictions"
"the probability of a 1990s-style UK housing crash was still about 1-in-10, in line with a previous forecast made in September."

"The odds (since then) certainly have not increased partly because the economy does seem to be displaying real resilience in the face of headwinds," he said."

just to remind you come of the content of the article you linked to

Britain's fragile housing market is underpinned by a resilient economy but credit market woes could still lead to a deeper downturn, Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), said.

ad9898_3

robin_banks wrote: »

Ian Perry, a spokesman for the RICS, said: “Buyer interest is starting to gain momentum but will remain frustrated while mortgage finance is scarce.

There is a reason why this is the case Mr Ian Perry, it's called the finance that was given out prior to the crash was unsustainable, hence house prices will have 'meet' the finance that is now available and into the future.

The finance now available is 50% that was available at 'peak', do I forsee prices dropping 50% ? not necessarily as funding will increase from that '50% base', but it will take a long long time and funding at 2007 levels in real inflationary terms is highly unlikely ever to be back.

ad9898_3

chucky wrote: »

you can't have it both ways, to be fair you remind me of the majority of HPCers on here... you were one of those people that always used a RICS forecast to make your point. how come RICS isn't good enough now?

To be fair chucky, if RICS pointed out drops for 12 months, after about 3-4 of those months you would probably say there statements have a fair bit of truth in them, after 12 months you would say they have it spot.

The trouble is at this point, they have only just reported this, if for instance the same is true over the following 6 months +, then we can say the trend has changed and start to believe there long term views.

It's like the Nationwide with it's .9% rise, it's utterly irrelevant in the scheme of 17 concecutive drops, however if they post 3-6 months worth of rises, then we can say the trend they have predicted is correct. It's just a pity the media aren't painting a truthful story about this.