UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thats what I thought but I dont doubt the markets ability to fox obvious expectations we have of it.
I cant really be surprised if the market is screwy just like it was today, whipsaw action



Only 3% think the dollar could get stronger from here, that might explain alot. Doesnt the FOMC news today run in line since it'll be less QE
The wave theory adds up in general but its not for trading, it matches herd instinct and the fact its easier to make money when following the crowd until some big guys take profits elsewhere and shut it down

Yeah I can relate to that, though deflation / inflation is an economic phenomenon and it's presence or absence doesn't effect the markets ability to fool the masses. Market today (yesterday ) was pretty much as expected, apart from the big move out of the gate, can't say I was expecting that, but all in all it was par for the course for a FED day, not to mention the seasonal August chop.
The 3% US$ bulls certainly does give pause, though the $ does not need to rise precipitously to foil the herd, it just need to stop falling, still I don't know, long term projections are not really my forte. (Though I will be adding to XUKS this morning as per original plan)

The deflationary crash "Great Depression II" seems to have been a bit of a life's work for Prechter, ie he has been on this theory for some considerable time with his book "Conquer The Crash" and its variants I wonder if he has become too immersed in it to be objective. Given where the great depression took us, I think that scenario would be a bit of an end game.

Less QE or an end to it, certainly won't work against the $ however the question there would be whether the damage has already been done with expansion of debt to an unsustainable level. As always time will reveal all, certainly gives one some more to think about, for longer term planning.

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

ROFL :rotfl: Where do you get these pictures from STT

Yes those pictures are great :T I love the avitars as well, that Hank Paulson one is very funny!

sabretoothtigger

Every day the market rose on FOMC means a fall the next day and vice versa apparently, something thats happened 12 times in the last couple years according to this chart


http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/7434/att88cb3.png


Speaking of Paulsons, John is now the 4th largest holder of BAC stock. Who'd have predicted that, hargreaves here did similar with barclays shorting them then investing in them just after

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3412236

sabretoothtigger

Trend break on that prediction there, second time in 2 years thats not played out but Im not sure that is an indicator of anything especially

Anyway on bigger trends, I saw a video of Faber debating against Roubini

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJ8i8FKAwec

"I expect now for the next couple of months a period of a recovering dollar and weak assets. A strong dollar means global liquidity tightening. The dollar will strengthen because the US economy is the least cyclical, but developing countries are more exposed. In a scenario where growth will be disappointing, I think emerging markets are vulnerable. I think we had huge increases in stock prices, a lot of markets have doubled in price."

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Trend break on that prediction there, second time in 2 years thats not played out but Im not sure that is an indicator of anything especially

Yes I tend not to take much notice of things like that, they seldom take into consideration what else is going on around and about, for example I find it interesting that they only looked at the FED meetings during this crisis, their snapshot starts at the beginning of the crisis, so to counter I would say, anything before March of this year the market was acting in extreme fear, consequently it would not have been unreasonable to pick any well spaced event and see that the market declined the next day, so that just leaves the most recent 3, in the first one sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish coming off what we now know to be the bottom, there was no belief consequently the FOMC meetings are seen as a highlight that might "change things" assuming nothing in their meeting changes the prevailing sentiment resumes, the FED at that time continued to caution strongly on the outlook. It is only the last two meetings that the FED has began talking more positively, but again they presented nothing the market didn't know already.
Call me a cynic, but I'd wonder did the compiler of this have an agenda by selecting just that sample period.

ricll

tonygee wrote: »

Hi steve,
Congrats with FDL but as I advised previously..Spread your investments or you will inevitably get burned.
I would suggest say no more than 1-2k on small companies and up to 4k for bigger companies,that way if something drastic happens you wont lose everything.
If you do continue with large amounts then set a stop loss to limit your losses

I think sometimes is worthy the risk concentrating your investment in fewer companies. The problem with spreading the money in too many companies is that you never make big gains as one goes up the other goes down.

The next share to watch is SEY imo, already got GKP and HOIL. There's nothing as good as oil if you are looking for big gains in the short term.

[Deleted User]

ricll wrote: »

I think sometimes is worthy the risk concentrating your investment in fewer companies. The problem with spreading the money in too many companies is that you never make big gains as one goes up the other goes down.
QUOTE]

That depends on your own risk profile. Don`t spread if you are prepared to lose the lot, spread if you are cautious

uk_steve

yeah its a personal thing risk and reward

findel

well today i am pleased to say its showing a sell of £72.800 for my holding when i last checked 42.7p per share

thats a 95% ish increase on my holding of findel of £37.000


so i am getting closer to my target very quickly hopefully


more nail bitting time for me

uk_steve

ricll wrote: »

I think sometimes is worthy the risk concentrating your investment in fewer companies. The problem with spreading the money in too many companies is that you never make big gains as one goes up the other goes down.

The next share to watch is SEY imo, already got GKP and HOIL. There's nothing as good as oil if you are looking for big gains in the short term.

SEY i had a read about this stock

if they get takers of the extra stocks in ratio of 95% all sold

then yeah i agree it would be a double your money quickly stock
if you was able to take extra shares then your original holding

ie if you had 2k then put much you can afford to buy extra shares
more then that amount






but its a hard call if they get 95% of the shares all sold ?!?!?

the price is not brilliant
plus the perfrmance has been hit n miss for ages with the company

IMO its risky


thats only my view

sabretoothtigger

ricll what about bp since they are operating in Iraq now, do you think they'd expand beyond the basics



I think profit and market risk often go in opposite directions, if the two are balanced it should be good to hold.
Or if the market should go down alot the risk gauge should read low.

Or another way to isolate factors from personal feelings of profit/loss is to examine the dividend potential, alot of stocks earlier in the year were giving out some massive returns in theory depending on if you thought business would half or not.
Turns out now everyone believes they'll now pay out and they have mostly, abbey or santander now are yielding like 7% and barclays arent going to pay that much I bet

Personally Im very bad at dumping stocks showing a loss which is bad when they go down even further. Better to sell sooner and buy back later but alot of private investors just hold till it shows a profit which is incorrect basically

So to temper that I dont hold much in any one thing, theres no reason I cant just get it right on many different stocks. So long as I sell enough shares in each at top of their price channels in order to rebuy them at the bottom it should work quite well without requiring absolutes so much

Risk is relative?











Who did best in the last month since the rally began roughly, from FTSE 100



http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/tools/heat_maps.html?INDEX=1918069&SECTOR=&DPCATEGORY=SP&SPPLOT=W4&CBPLOT=CAP&DDPLOT=BUY%3A1MONTH&ORDERBY=TOP






China as a leading indicator? It fell first in summer 07 so 'Pragmatic Capitalist' say and usa didnt track it then either, at first.
Also they make a point that bubble markets take many years to correct. As a percentage comparison - dow29, Gold80-90, Nasdaq2000- & Japan90 all have fallen flat and stayed that way compared to the previous high

On a positive note I think that means nasdaq is the best usa index to hold imo
http://pragcap.com/is-the-chinese-market-forecasting-the-end-of-the-bull-run



SPR levels and the SPX matches for me not the SPY, think I need to ignore spy tbh
http://web11.twitpic.com/img/23268601-62d6c3d4355a92eb99084e36633d86bb.4a85766f-scaled.jpg