UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tonygee_3

Regarding Dividends,with experience you can 'nick' the divi by buying shortly before ex div day(you dont have to hold all year
www.sharecrazy.com give upcoming div dates
If you look back at Post 224 I pointed out that UU was £5.18 with div due following week,shortly after that the price went up to £5.48 as buyers rushed for div
Selling then would have achieved more than div

tonygee_3

negs wrote: »

As everybody else trying to find that golden oversold share which has potential to recover..means mgmt having some interest by having their own big holding/motivation..

Most shares have their risk/reward factored into them
However in times of excitement or panic they are overbought or oversold,the latter is time to buy
YELL was £6.00 now its 30p!!

sabretoothtigger

Selling then would have achieved more than div

Speculating on the speculation! You should trade options, shares are too easy



Im hoping some of the rises upto ex div on shares I have chosen especially will stay afterwards, all depends on market direction I guess

sabretoothtigger

Symmetrical market start and ends today for sp500, if its top of the curve in a bigger way its harder to say but odds are its not I guess

I just spotted this about ftse dividends and it mentions uu

   
Dividend yield (%) Dividend cover Market consensus   
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/0216238"]Aviva[/URL] 9.7 0.9 Cautious buy 
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/B28KQ18"]Man Group[/URL] 9.5 1.3 Buy   
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/B39J2M4"]United Utilities[/URL] 6.7 1.8 Weak hold  
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/0425045"]Rexam[/URL] 6.5 1.6 Strong buy   
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/B16GWD5"]Vodafone[/URL] 6.5 2.2     Strong hold  
[URL="http://www.h-l.co.uk/shares/security_details/sedol/0798059"]BP[/URL] 6.3 2.5 Buy    
 Source: ShareScope/Digital Look. Figures as of 27 July 2009

http://www.h-l.co.uk/news/Feature-articles/id/1272

tradetime

Yes interesting finish today, I suspect a little trader profit taking ahead of the GDP number, perhaps the big players trying to draw some shorts in to add juice to any breakout Friday, I have seen quite a bit of online chatter in various places that yesterday provided a low risk short into the GDP number, which I'd have to agree with, though lower risk still would be to stand aside and let it print. Intraday the S&P cash touched 996.6, less than 4 points shy of the now much watched 1000 level.
Asia quite strong at the moment, should be an interesting day.

peterg1965

I know the views on Banks will be divided and they represent a higher risk, but was thinking about a punt on Barclays. Interim results on Monday I believe. Anyone care to guess what kind of figures they will announce?

I have just started in shares, bought Vodafone on Monday, decision is whether to hold onto to them with an expectation of further gains or to take a small profit now and look at BARC.

sabretoothtigger

Barc wont pay a dividend till next year afaik and I think the price will drop a bit even if the results were good.
How good the results will be will probably go on investment bank type activities vs mortgage or loan writeoffs. Im not sure if any of them will surprise the market with anything, it depends on future gdp expectations as well.
I think they all could be cheaper then this otherwise aim for a solid dividend which a couple do have

Vodafone have ranged 110 to 130 mostly from what Ive seen




Apparently these guys debt ratio is not as high as I worked out myself or they'd have lost the credit rating

Staying within the 2-3 times net debt to ebitda range maintains Reed’s current credit rating of BBB+.

[B]Reed new boy Smith makes a big splash[/B]

By Salamander Davoudi and Kate Burgess 
Published: July 31 2009 00:02 | Last updated: July 31 2009 00:02

Until Thursday Ian Smith, the new chief executive of Reed Elsevier, had been something of an unknown quantity to investors in the Anglo-Dutch publishing group. Not any more.
[URL="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c7f45f4-7d3e-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html#"][IMG]http://media.ft.com/cms/1d59a784-7d2d-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.jpg[/IMG][/URL]Mr Smith’s first setpiece left shareholders stunned, as Reed said it was raising almost £1bn ($1.6bn) in a share placing to reduce an $8bn debt pile, revealed a halving of first-half pre-tax profit and retreated from positive full-year earnings guidance. As a further weight on the shares, there was also a widening of the pension fund net deficit to £428m. The resultant drop in the share price of 13 per cent seemed almost modest. 
“Given the economic conditions and no visible green shoots we felt we were too tight going into the continuing recession. We couldn’t let this drift,” said Mr Smith.
Pressing ahead with difficult decisions is a classic for new chief executives, especially if the root cause of the trouble occurred before their arrival – in this case the ill-timed acquisition of ChoicePoint for $4.1bn in 2008. But Mr Smith’s move still shocked analysts. “Most un-Reed in style,” said one.
United in surprise, they were divided as to whether the placing would be enough to maintain the company’s credit rating. 
[B]EDITOR’S CHOICE[/B]

[B][URL="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c622552-7cd6-11de-9f29-00144feabdc0.html"]Reed confirms capital raising plans[/URL] - Jul-30[/B]


[B][URL="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e07fad2-7d3f-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html"]Profits halve at Reed Elsevier[/URL] - Jul-30[/B]


[B][URL="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13e03056-7c83-11de-a7bf-00144feabdc0.html"]Reed plans issue to cut debt[/URL] - Jul-29[/B]


[B][URL="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b07cdf2-7ce2-11de-9f29-00144feabdc0.html"]Advertising slump hits Trinity Mirror profits[/URL] - Jul-30[/B]




Simon Baker, analyst at Credit Suisse, said that with free cash flow of £700m, Reed would not need to come back to the markets to raise more money unless there was a “sensational” acquisition opportunity it could not miss. “Have they done enough in terms of raising new money? I think they have,” he said.
Yet Numis downgraded its 2009 and 2010 forecasts and noted that the ultimate level of investment needed to reinvigorate the group, in particular the struggling Reed Business Information, remained uncertain.
Reed is using the so-called cash-box structure to raise the equivalent of 10 per cent of its combined Dutch and UK market capitalisations in new shares. The structure, technically constructed around an acquisition, enables it to avoid a rights issue, which its dual listing in the UK and the Netherlands would have made particularly complicated and expensive.
Investors have not been enthusiastic about the increasing use of this style of capital raising, worried that cash-box placings circumvent protections against their shareholdings being diluted.
But Reed’s evident dire straits have muted investor protest. “Everyone accepts that ‘needs must’, particularly given Reed’s stressed credit rating,” one shareholder said.
Reed hopes that Thursday’s placing will bring net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation down from 3.6 times to an acceptable level of under 3 times.
Others were less convinced. Johnathan Barrett, analyst at Singer, said: “The placing may well prove to not be enough. It leaves leverage up at 2.5 to 3 times. With further weakness in trading, Reed could have to come back again to maintain its credit rating.”
Reed admitted the trading outlook remained “uncertain” for 2009 and 2010 as it unveiled revenue declines at its Exhibitions business and struggling RBI.
It is divesting the more advertising-dependent activities within RBI, including the US-controlled circulation titles. RBI now accounts for 5 per cent of operating profits.
Mr Smith said: “About 25 per cent of the RBI portfolio fits in with our strategy, including ICIS , the Bankers Almanac and XpertHR. We will sell off the bits that don’t.”
But analysts were sceptical that asset sales would take pressure off the balance sheet. Dominic Buch at Nomura, said: “It is not a great time to be divesting and we don’t anticipate a divestment in the immediate future.”
Reed now has £5.7bn of debt of which $2.9bn must be refinanced by 2012, including $400m in 2010, $1.7bn in 2011 and $800m in 2012. Its $2.5bn committed back-up bank lines expire in 2012.
Staying within the 2-3 times net debt to ebitda range maintains Reed’s current credit rating of BBB+. If the company were to slip to BBB the higher interest cost would be about £20m.
“The reality is that we have been below the threshold necessary for our solid credit rating and we have been on negative outlook since last December,” says Mark Armour, chief financial officer. After this tough start, Mr Smith will have to repair not only the financial underpinning of the group, but also its relationships with investors. 

PTEC - Questor discuss them, previously tipped apparently. Price continues to improve, maybe going near that 280 level I think I spotted

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/5940479/Playtech-suffers-Pollyanna-syndrome-with-William-Hill-venture.html





EUR / JPY duplicates SP500 86% of the time such is the power of the carry trade so this guy says (last two days its been up))-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADVbkCf_b0M

Dollar index is back to normal and declining two days now so this scraps my new trend theory I guess and confirms market rises

tonygee_3

Bought some 888,updates monday,the gambling sector infocus next week
Updates from LAD(8% DIV) and WMH also
Bought UU under £4.50 might be a switch soon back into utilities soon
Good luck everyone and have a nice weekend

uk_steve

my selftrade account is being a mare today no trades for me


i spotted on the news Barclays reported profits:T


as Yazz said in the late 80s (the only way is up baby)

[Deleted User]

just letting you know that emed is forming a very nice cup and handle chart formation (ie very promising). I got another divi drop this am and bought some more. That is 5 small purchases so far