UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

[Deleted User]

I have today sold all shares in my dh`s sipp and wrapped up all the (outstanding) profit. I say outstanding because the profit was not to be expected in a time of recession. UKX looks very overbought

gadgetmind

GDP and stock market returns show very little historical correlation.

sabretoothtigger

Fed rate and unemployment USA is tomorrow. I guess that could mark the market top for the winter months.
USA GDP falling is a possible start to a very long period of bad news for them. As their currency is due the biggest sell off that will shake prices in every direction eventually I think


Yen is selling off alot at the moment, so long as that continues it tends to support this rally. Also bonds are selling off

David Kempton: I’ve sold all of my government bonds
The experienced investor has shifted his money into investment trusts.http://emails.citywire.co.uk/a/hBRCotwB8eu8jB8wnBCNsfvhwww/nws11?EMAIL_ID=249194

Lonmin is up 15% today but I was just trying to figure their long term price post rights @164.3% of previous float

So its less cheap then it appears, Halifax do adjusted charts which is useful. Lloy is a massive offender on this also obviously

358 today



CAD falling on volume unfortunately. Marc Faber recently pointed out Ukrainian shares have become extremely cheap, maybe this is what drives this all ie. not specific
FXPO is also based there I think

chris_m

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

CAD falling on volume unfortunately. Marc Faber recently pointed out Ukrainian shares have become extremely cheap, maybe this is what drives this all ie. not specific

Mostly small trades, but there was a ½ million buy @ 11.25p at 16:15 and Google Finance is showing the last price at 12.55p. There must have been some post-close delayed trades because it's showing the close price at 11.25p.

My feeling is that part of the stagnation and gradual downward trend is due to the lack of information from the company, the last RNS was on 19/11/12. Someone over on ii says they emailed the company about the falling sp and actually got a reply;

Thank you for your email of 23 January, we note your concerns stemming from a frustration that we all share given the somewhat disappointing results in 2012. The share price of the Company, as you will appreciate, is not under our control but we do not feel it is an accurate reflection of the resilience of the Company, the strength of our balance sheet or the dedication and professionalism of our hard-working team. Nor, we feel, is it reflective of the current and future potential of the Company.

Broadly speaking the company has made progress over the past year although the results of the drilling campaigns undertaken (as already reported) have not been as positive as hoped. We can assure you that the Board is committed to making a success of the Company. We remain confident that we have the right team in place, all of them working hard, to ensure this commitment is fulfilled. We will announce any developments in line with our disclosure obligations to all shareholders and will endeavour to be more communicative going forward.

I hopes this goes some way to reassuring you and addressing your valid concerns.

Kind Regards

Cadogan Petroleum Plc

I'm sure more (and better) communication would only help.

StevieJ

chris_m wrote: »

Mostly small trades, but there was a ½ million buy @ 11.25p at 16:15 and Google Finance is showing the last price at 12.55p. There must have been some post-close delayed trades because it's showing the close price at 11.25p.

My feeling is that part of the stagnation and gradual downward trend is due to the lack of information from the company, the last RNS was on 19/11/12. Someone over on ii says they emailed the company about the falling sp and actually got a reply;



I'm sure more (and better) communication would only help.

There was a 12 million 'one off' share trade for 10p the other day, someone mentioned that it was the exact shareholding of the Euro bank of reconstruction, so looks like they are out. The more these big players leave the more risky a place to be , I think. I wonder if Lloyds have unloaded all their shares yet?

sabretoothtigger

In theory they have lost that money they are owed? Any positive news to the contrary like that might make a difference, its only valued 24m

Thats a nice letter but not much facts given so nothing of substance. Again trading higher volume lower price, its taking on submarine type qualities nobody wants to refloat them without reason or cashflow.
Kinda typical I can believe this can happen for no great reason just like a popularity contest, nobody wants to be the odd one out.

Positives I can say are that I do think CAD is unpopular. Any time there is negative sentiment or just a 'lost' stock, that situation can change. 2 mentions of CAD on http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ people dont even bother to risk fantasy money on it
So if instituitions have dumped it, private investors mainly dont know or dont want it.
Thats a future positive, if CAD ever manage to do some business of course

Also if Euro Bank has dumped stock, thats a positive. Presuming it was not for reasons of fraud or anything serious. Any time people sell out at a low price 'just because' it can bounce back
Dont they have to declare a big change in holding though, so it'd be on RNS


In the middle of chaos and riots, CEY is looking strong. I had 51 written down as a low and it was brief there, pinging right back up is pretty positive then, it may break 60 sooner for it.
They are projecting 50% production increase, that would make it like 1 PE. They might as well just buy their own shares back

Chemring might pair well with BAE for me I wonder
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/72591/edmond-jacksons-stockwatch-chemring

sabretoothtigger

These guys just bought 7% of CAD on the 28th Its fallen since then anyhow

Damille Investments II Limited
The Company will invest in a concentrated portfolio of primarily equity securities of issuers that the executive directors consider can properly be valued using a NAV valuation basis, as well as the securities of certain issuers that the executive directors consider can properly be valued using other appropriate valuation criteria, such as cash flow, earnings and dividend discount model based methodologies.[COLOR="Blue"] [B]In the opinion of the Company, many but not all of these companies would benefit from implementing certain measures to optimise their balance sheets and align management and shareholder interests[/B][/COLOR]. Such investee companies are expected to be, but will not be limited to, closed-ended investment funds, investment companies and other corporate entities such as real estate companies or natural resource companies.

The Company's investment objective is to realise significant capital returns for its shareholders with low volatility, by investing in a concentrated portfolio of primarily equity securities.  In the opinion of the Company, many but not all of these companies would benefit from implementing certain measures to optimise their balance sheets and align management and shareholder interests.  Such issuers are expected to be, but will not be limited to, closed-ended investment funds, investment companies and other corporate entities, such as real estate companies or natural resource companies.

It is anticipated that the Company's portfolio will, over time, likely comprise of 10 to 15 core holdings and a number of smaller holdings and a proportion of cash or cash equivalents.  Typically, the Company will seek to acquire interests representing between three per cent. and 29.9 per cent. of the voting rights of investee companies, although larger stakes may be acquired.  The aggregate investment in any one investee company (valued for these purposes at acquisition cost) will not represent, at the time of the Company's initial or subsequent investment in the investee company, more than 20 per cent. of the initial NAV, adjusted for any subsequent issue of shares but not adjusted for any capital return.

Measures for balance sheet optimisation will include, but are not limited to, making a full or partial return of capital to equity holders, repurchasing existing equity or debt securities, raising additional equity or debt capital or distributing new securities to existing securities holders (spin-offs).

The Company's articles of incorporation incorporate provisions permitting the Directors, in each year following the second anniversary of admission, to offer at their absolute discretion to each holder of shares an option to redeem up to 15 per cent. of their shareholding, subject to any legal or regulatory requirements and, in particular, the Companies Law (the "Redemption Offer"). The Directors intend to make a Redemption Offer in each such year, save in exceptional circumstances, where the Directors consider that to do so would result in a breach of applicable law or would have a material adverse effect on the Company.

In accordance with the Company's articles of incorporation, the Directors are required at the first Annual General Meeting held following the fourth anniversary of admission to propose an ordinary resolution that the Company continue its business as a closed-ended investment company (the "Continuation Resolution").  If the Continuation Resolution is passed, the Directors are required to propose a further Continuation Resolution as the Annual General Meetings held every second year thereafter.

The Company was listed on the Specialist Fund Market of the London Stock Exchange and Channel Islands Stock Exchange on 9 November 2011.
[url]http://www.damilleinvestmentstwo.com/[/url]

In turn DIL2 is 8% owned by

Legal & General Assurance Society Limited (LGAS & LGPL)

Interim_statement_8th_Oct wrote:

This is an increase in investment terms of 7.61% since launch.

At the period end the Company had holdings in twenty one companies.

The Company holds notifiable shareholdings in six companies. Brief summaries follow:

3Legs Resources PLC
3Legs Resources PLC was established in early 2007 to focus on the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources, with a particular focus on shale gas in Europe.

Blackstar Group SE
Blackstar Group SE is an investment company, whose objective is to gain exposure to the growth on the African continent largely through companies in South Africa with the underlying themes of strategic market position and strong cash flow.

Dolphin Capital Investors Limited
Dolphin Capital Investors Limited ("DCIL") is a leading global investor in the residential resort sector in emerging markets. DCIL seeks to generate strong capital growth and cash returns for its shareholders by acquiring large seafront sites in the eastern Mediterranean, Caribbean and Latin America and developing sophisticated leisure-integrated residential resorts.

Since its inception in 2005, DCIL has become one of the largest private seafront landowners in Greece and Cyprus and has partnered with some of the world's most recognised architects, golf course designers and hotel operators.

DCIL's portfolio is currently spread over 63 million m² of prime coastal developable land and comprises 14 large-scale, leisure-integrated residential resorts under development in Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Turkey, Panama and the Dominican Republic and a 49.8% strategic participation in Aristo Developers Ltd.

Private Equity Investor PLC
Private Equity Investor PLC is an investment company, incorporated in the UK, which invests principally in early to pre-IPO stage information technology companies and has the tax benefits of investment trust status.

SeaEnergy PLC
SeaEnergy PLC is an investment holding company, incorporated in Scotland, which holds an interest in Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc as well as the cash proceeds from the realisation of an earlier investment. [Bought these before, nice value share I think]

St Peter Port Capital Limited
St Peter Port Capital Limited is a Guernsey registered closed-ended investment company. The company was established with the aim of generating value for shareholders by investing in growth companies, predominantly immediately prior to an initial public offering (''IPO''). The objective is to achieve returns from the uplift on or shortly after IPO, but the exit from the investment could also be a trade sale.

Investment Allocation
At 28 September 2012, the Company's assets were allocated in the following approximate proportions:

Notifiable shareholdings: 30.59% of NAV:

4,932,320 shares in Private Equity Investor PLC: 11.36%
25,000,000 shares in Dolphin Capital Investors Limited: 7.53%
6,100,000 shares in Blackstar Group SE: 5.90%
4,065,000 shares in St Peter Port Capital Limited: 2.74%
4,730,800 shares in 3Legs Resources PLC: 2.57%
1,234,852 shares in SeaEnergy PLC: 0.49%

Non-Notifiable shareholdings: 24.06% of NAV

Cash: 45.35% of NAV

CEY and BP still very strong now I think. Market hopefully not pulling back too much

Having had a look at Randgold today I think its a positive trend share. Recent low was good.
The company itself seems more expensive but not if they deliver on growth as Questor seems to think they will.
They have at least put up the dividend and the point is they are well funded to repeat that.
Im very bad at buying into quality and holding on (ala RR etc), so I will continue to buy Investec gold fund which holds them. I think gold fund, the entire sector is cheap vs potential profit

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

In theory they have lost that money they are owed? Any positive news to the contrary like that might make a difference, its only valued 24m

Thats a nice letter but not much facts given so nothing of substance. Again trading higher volume lower price, its taking on submarine type qualities nobody wants to refloat them without reason or cashflow.
Kinda typical I can believe this can happen for no great reason just like a popularity contest, nobody wants to be the odd one out.

Positives I can say are that I do think CAD is unpopular. Any time there is negative sentiment or just a 'lost' stock, that situation can change. 2 mentions of CAD on http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ people dont even bother to risk fantasy money on it
So if instituitions have dumped it, private investors mainly dont know or dont want it.
Thats a future positive, if CAD ever manage to do some business of course

Also if Euro Bank has dumped stock, thats a positive. Presuming it was not for reasons of fraud or anything serious. Any time people sell out at a low price 'just because' it can bounce back
Dont they have to declare a big change in holding though, so it'd be on RNS

Does this mean that Judgement day is finally here regarding CAD and that unused plant?

ROLLS BUILDING
COURT 1
Before MR JUSTICE EDER
Friday 15 February 2013
At 10:00

FOR JUDGMENT

2011-1030 Cadogan Petroleum Holdings v Global Process Systems LLC

http://www.justice.gov.uk/courts/court-lists/list-commercial

sabretoothtigger

Hope lives, it'll be a long road I guess like BP or HOIL Im still waiting

FOR JUDGMENT

That does sound more final, but then theres the appeal. I'll believe it when I see the cash

I sold more bonds, took more gold fund again Im a sucker for unpopular, went too soon. ABX worlds largest miner registered loss but underlying profitable.


Fresnillo is losing it I did trim at 19 but now it seems too cheap, order for 14.31 though it could or should be holding here

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/soros-said-to-make-1-billion-since-november-on-yen-bet.html

'Make' He only makes money when its sold up, thats bad news for me. I need Yen to keep falling not just be a one off move but sterling is so dam awful a currency we arent gaining vs them. They make stuff

[B]Einhorn, Soros Increase Stakes in Apple
(This article was originally published Thursday.)[/B] By Mia Lamar, Paul Ziobro and Liz Moyer 

Hedge-fund managers David Einhorn and George Soros increased their stakes in Apple Inc. (AAPL) during the fourth quarter. High-flying Apple shares stumbled last quarter, falling 20% amid concerns about the company's momentum and consumer demand for its devices. The stock is down another 12% so far this year, closing regular Thursday trade at $466.59, well off a September peak at $705.07. Mr. Einhorn's Greenlight Capital (GLCI.XX), which has owned Apple shares since 2010, is currently in a high-profile battle with the technology giant over its proposal to eliminate preferred stock from the company charter. Apple, for its part, has called the battle "a silly sideshow." Mr. Einhorn increased its Apple holdings by about a fifth, to 1.3 million shares from 1.1 million shares. The filing also showed a position of 275,000 call options. Call options give shareholders the right to buy shares at a set price by a designated date. Soros Fund Management LLC (SRS.XX), Mr. Soros' company, more than doubled its stake in Apple, adding 99,118 shares of the iPhone and iPad maker. The position, which is now 183,976 shares, was valued at $98 million at the end of the fourth quarter. Mr. Soros moved away from the social networking space in the fourth quarter, eliminating a 300,000-share stake in Facebook Inc. (FB) and a LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) holding that had been 1.2 million shares at the end of September. Mr. Einhorn's firm also showed a new stake in Google Inc. (GOOG), with 63,000 shares. He appeared to have eliminated previously disclosed stakes in Humana Inc. (HUM), WellPoint Inc. (WLP) and others. The moves were revealed in so-called 13-F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday. Firms that control investment portfolios of more than $100 million are required to report stock holdings 45 days after the end of a given quarter, giving the public its most fresh possible glimpse into the investing decisions of high-profile money managers. Activist investor William Ackman's fund Pershing Square Capital Management LP (PSCM.XX)reported no stake in Hawaiian commercial property firm Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (ALEX), though his filing did not mention Mr. Ackman's highest-profile wager. In December, he launched a public campaign against nutritional supplement maker Herbalife Ltd. (HLF), calling the company a pyramid scheme and disclosing he had shorted more than 20 million of Herbalife shares, valued at roughly $1 billion at the time. Herbalife has denied Mr. Ackman's accusations. Other fund managers have taken the opposite view on Mr. Ackman's thesis, including Carl Icahn, who squared off with Mr. Ackman in a confrontation on CNBC last month. Mr. Icahn on Thursday revealed a 13% stake in Herbalife, though the disclosure wasn't in his 13-F because Mr. Icahn's investment came in January, missing the Dec. 31 deadline for the filing. Compared to last quarter, the only new holding in Mr. Icahn's filing is Transocean Ltd. (RIG), an offshore drilling company. But Mr. Icahn had already disclosed the stake, which now amounts to about 5.9% of Transocean's outstanding shares, in a separate SEC filing in January. Mr. Icahn did omit some information on his holdings in the filing, an action some investment managers are permitted by the SEC to take when they're building or eliminating a position. Such "confidential treatment" prevents others from piggy-backing on their investment ideas. Confidential treatment is usually applied to positions being added by managers. Meanwhile, Mr. Soros's fund boosted its stakes in commercial banking giants Citigroup Inc. (C) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), while adding a new position in Morgan Stanley (MS). Mr. Soros, who waded back into bank stocks in the third quarter with the addition of Citi and J.P. Morgan, boosted the two holdings by 6.6 million shares and 1.6 million shares in the fourth quarter, respectively. The firm also has a 1.3 million call option on Citi, according to the filing. The fund also bought 4.1 million shares of Morgan Stanley, worth $79.2 million at the end of the fourth quarter. Over the past two months, many analysts have raised their earnings estimates on the big banks and securities firms amid the resolution of the U.S. fiscal cliff and less uncertainty surrounding the European sovereign debt crisis. The financial services industry has also been buoyed by an improvement in capital markets activity. Financier Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management (TRIANFM.XX) reported reduced holdings in custody bank State Street Corp. (STT), owning 3.1 million shares valued at $148 million as of the end of December. Three months prior, Trian reported holding more than 9 million shares valued at $386 million. Trian also reported no position in the food company formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. (KRFT) after it previously disclosed holding more than 8 million shares of valued at $336 million. Kraft changed its name to Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) last year after spinning off Northern American grocery operations. The fund reported a new holding in Richmond, Va.-based packaging company MeadWestvaco Corp. (MWV), which produces packaging for companies in the healthcare, beauty and tobacco industries, among others. Trian reported holding 1.6 million shares in the company with a value of $51 million. 


 February 15, 2013 08:23 ET (13:23 GMT)

gadgetmind

Oooo, that wiggly green thing touched that long red thing!

Is that bad?