UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

gadgetmind

Glen_Clark wrote: »

The only reason I can see for todays rise is there must be a lot of QE money sitting on the sidelines waiting to invest and trying to time the markets. Any news can trigger a wave of buying.

I expect there to be multiple waves of buying as that's the way it always works. Bad news will trigger selling, perhaps a rout, and then the money will come back again. That's the way it always works.

I don't recall seeing a situation with quite so much money on the sidelines before, money that's desperate for any give of positive return. Given this I wouldn't be surprised if the waves of buying will overcame the bursts of selling for quite a few years, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

I'm actually much happier with the FTSE 100 at closer to 5000 as TBH it's much easier to make money with cheaper share prices.

Markets could fall again when they realise these countries are still heading towards bankruptcy. Nothing has been solved. Like Britain, Spain, Greece, Portugal etc US National Debt is increasing at an unsustainable rate, so things cannot just carry on as before.

When you control your our currency, you can keep up that game for us long as you like. Even so, every so often a country will default (either soft or hard) but again that's business as usual.

The main question is whether you're happier holding sovereign bonds, shares/bonds of companies that are the key infrastructure and means of production, property, precious metals, commodities, or a combination of these.

Masomnia

Thrugelmir wrote: »

May start paying a dividend in 2014.

CEO certainly wants to, as far as I know it's the FSA that are most against it; but how much influence they have there I'm not too sure.

Thrugelmir

Masomnia wrote: »

CEO certainly wants to, as far as I know it's the FSA that are most against it; but how much influence they have there I'm not too sure.

Depends very much on strength of balance sheet. When Lloyds finally clears the historic issues. Underlying profitability should rebound significantly. For me still too much fog swirling around to fully understand the numbers.

sabretoothtigger

2013 div I hope. They want to get out from under big gov say so, the best way is to encourage higher private ownership of their shares. Regular returns is a must for lower costs, etc

deposit on a flat in 5 - 10 years

The best rates are now, I'd not personally be aiming to wait when the largest part of a house cost is the finance

This market is going to get rough at some point (again)

StevieJ wrote: »

Hey SBT watcha doing in Saskatchewan, blasting out those oil sands?

Potash, gigantic agriculture company out there plus it sounds funny

18 or 19 Trn by the time B.O. leaves the white house.

1.5tn deficit a year, probably well over 20 presuming they keep failing to encourage business. However:


Caza getting cheaper again, RRL still cheap?

Glen_Clark

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Depends very much on strength of balance sheet. .

I think it depends more on politics.
Negative headlines if shareholders are getting dividends whilst the taxpayer is still showing a paper loss. They will need to maintain the hidden subsidies
(QE, Funding for lending etc) until the share price is above that at which the taxpayer bought in.

rockitup

rockitup wrote: »

I would have thought that he reasons for today's rise included the fiscal cliff vote, first trading day of month (for US 401K Pension contributions) and the monthly $80 bn for the QE you mentioned.

Like you said though, I too wonder how long the markets can stay at these levels... Next big hit will be U.S. again - reaching the debt ceiling of $16.34 Trn. Suppose this will be raise again and again and reach 18 or 19 Trn by the time B.O. leaves the white house.

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Fiscal Cliff Vote - some see it as good news but as long as the National Debts keep increasing its simply storing up a worse problem for the future. But maybe buyers aren't looking that far ahead?
Don't the other 2 factors happen every month without much effect?

Yes, we're on the same track regarding their increasing debt and odds on they will just end up raising the "debt ceiling" again in the coming weeks.

Regarding the other factors I spread bet the DJIA on "First trading day of the month" but not on level stakes. Taken data from last 15 years and averaged out those figures to give the best performing months for long bets. More £'s per point on the better months and it seems to do well enough. Trouble is I get bored on the other 21 trading days each month though...

StevieJ

I see Artemis Strategic assets are finally getting the 'run of the green' with the increasing global gilt yields, will it continue?

Masomnia

Thanks for bringing that to my attention, Stevie... been wondering how I could get some exposure to short gilts without an ETF or spread bet. Shall get my researching hat on.

gadgetmind

StevieJ wrote: »

I see Artemis Strategic assets are finally getting the 'run of the green' with the increasing global gilt yields, will it continue?

Some strategies take a long term to play out.

A strategic bond fund I hold was also short on "safe" bunds and gilts and at the same time long on "risky" sovereign bonds. I agreed with their strategy and so kept holding, which was nice.

jimjames

Just seen this on Motley Fool, I'd not realised it was that long ago but I guess it makes sense when the peak was Dec 1999.

The FTSE 100 (UKX) index breached 6,000 for the first time since 2011 this week, after American politicians agreed a last-minute deal to avoid the so-called 'fiscal cliff'.
While this week's upward move was welcomed by many investors, it also put into perspective the index's performance during the last decade or so. You see, the FTSE 100 index first closed above 6,000 on 1 April 1998 -- almost fifteen years ago.