UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Prices in themselves dont matter. I think currency has to rise alot in worth for us to see FTSE 4000 now because we are talking about companies which trade globally in stronger currencies then ours.

Sterling and our bonds are seen very well vs europe so maybe it could happen but right now Sterling is falling.

If Sterling falls 3% like it did recently then FTSE fell 3% on top of the numbers shown. And vice versa, so 4000 is unlikely while that happens on every fall


BG at 1245 Ive written as a buy long term.
Also EMED at 7.5p is a good base over the last 6 months ? Commodities negative overwise I see no reason for it

StevieJ

This news is likely to halt the global market freefall, at least in the short term, shows how fragile it all is

In around the same hour as Beckham seized the torch and Fitch downgraded Greece, a poll came out suggesting the pro-Europe could get a majority in the next election.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-voters-move-centre-amid-045219596.html

sabretoothtigger

Plus Facebook issuing shares with 87 PE should boost google and tech or even the market as a whole.
Could easily be an up day though I think we go sideways till end of June probably - a bit similar to 2009 as I recall

StevieJ

A spirited fightback from Cadogan today.

coastline

A couple of charts I've found...

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotshow&u=6avlpJsqT83ziO5MuYd4xyQKJblxFRUIT5IRdhnN9vo%3D&symbol=FT%5EUKX

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotshow&u=ilkKmKCfmAbiwwglKfi+7KN67rbJUJg2TSQ1N66FPgI=&symbol=FT%5EUKX

sabretoothtigger

Couple people optimistic on gold. I would just note 1600 for now. A good burst upwards would be a nice relief and well deserved surely


http://stocksage.net/?p=534
http://www.robertsinn.com/


FTSE future is 5200.
On the positive side, best holiday exchange rates with Europe for two years. On a trade basis Euro has not been this cheap since 2002, nice for German world exports I guess. Somebody must be happy about it all

http://stockchallenge.co.uk/ comp entries valid till wed
JamesU beats me soundly again.
Im never sure what to short and we only go down, my takeover targets all failed this month with Xstrata losing all its gains

FRES

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Couple people optimistic on gold. I would just note 1600 for now. A good burst upwards would be a nice relief and well deserved surely

FTSE future is 5200. On the positive side, best holiday exchange rates with Europe for two years. On a trade basis Euro has not been this cheap since 2002, nice for German world exports I guess. Somebody must be happy about it all

http://stockchallenge.co.uk/ comp entries valid till wed
Im never sure what to short and we only go down, my takeover targets all failed this month with Xstrata losing all its gains

Resources took a further hammering last month for sure, around 15% roughly, so back to last October lows, depending on OPs mining/resource fund preferences some typical comparisons below.



Never heard of VGM though. From their reporting not sure if $1420/oz is supposed to be their production cost, seems high (from memory, say $650/oz at CEY).

http://www.vgmplc.com/downloads/CopyofHYFinancialStatement2012FINAL.pdf

I felt EU was oversold last month but various EU indices still went down further (10-15%), e.g. insurance (XSIR) and Stoxx50 (H50E). Not sure what to expect this month with ECB meetings, EU banking, Greece elections, resulting decisions and impacts etc.

Futures probably good reflection on sentiment at present but that could change very significantly either way. Should be an interesting and volatile month.

JamesU

sabretoothtigger

Its super high, I thought gold would not lose 1600 so convincingly and they are very vulnerable. Its partly because they are expanding the previously abandoned mine.
CEY is almost open cast I think. Fiji had a flash flood, its a case of suffering particular local news again
Just a massive HUI fund should be safe in theory, but this could return to previous highs so 40 to 200 I reckon is its feasible

VGM has a deal to get fuel from sugar cane rather then oil, could be a massive bonus

If talking sectors, I took a large interest in Natural gas recently as on a ratio to Oil it was cheaper then ever. They both could get cheaper but apparently gas will outperform.
My CHK doing well on these bank holidays but I expect it to reset before any bigger rise, lots of debts almost insolvent (banks do back them though) even as they cashed out all their hedges! very bad

I felt EU was oversold last month

Depends which part of it. They dont want a strong euro, at one point I remember they complained in recent years about this re. exports.
I think optimism leading upto the Greek election is possible but to hold through the actual result is far more risky

sabretoothtigger

Spanish bank Bailout prompts FTSE 5555 for Monday
Which is the highest since May 11th

coastline

nice little summary...

http://www.safehaven.com/article/25793/buying-opportunity-or-full-blown-bear-market