UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

lvader

Bought some Centrica and CEY in the early moring dip, it's always nice to start a trade with a small profit after dealing costs on day 1 (touch wood, an hour or so to go)

sabretoothtigger

I bought a chunk of VED yesterday much more then normal and sold it off today as it levels off. Im waiting for a normal kind of pullback to buy it again but seems this will not happen in FTSE hours

Maybe monday or maybe this is finally the bottom in which case I will do my normal tiny scale buys into both VED and BHP which are apparently 6 PE and 10 PE

Both metal miners with energy production I think so I reckon a pretty safe area and cheap


BHP I sold off last year at a higher price in the last FED boom and VED Ive held for over 2 years and its practically reversed, cheaper then ever. India was one of the few markets to sell off today


I bought some CEY around 100 also and decided to hold today though it has pulled back as it hits the downtrend for 2011. I think the best case scenario is 140 for the moment and I would sell off this little bit then.
I already hold some at much higher prices


BG group is probably in more of an uptrend then Centrica. Both good stocks




Trader says summer weakness is normal -

lvader

I bough Centrica to keep long term, CEY will probably be gone before the end of the year (hopefully with a nice profit)

I didn't have VED on the radar, thanks for the heads up. Fondamentals look good, any reason for the big drop other than market conditions?

sabretoothtigger

India is a pretty chaotic country. Im not sure beyond that but dont buy anything Indian without realising it can half In that spirit I sold some last Autumn and so I will buy them back soon whatever USA-centric news occurs

The company does rely on commodity prices staying at higher prices. Any dramatic depression type scenario with low prices for years is awful for them especially.

However India is 70% internal domestic economy, he is supplying customers at home quite alot not just China or whoever. I have VED at the bottom of a channel, its a negative channel but very possible they could bottom and sail back upto 20 on the usual euphoria Beyond that needs real demand growth


Yield 2.4% and thats covered 5 times over. VED 2013 PE is forecast to be 3 and I dont see that as unrealistic its more a case of extreme fear of low prices. When inflation is high with India growth and currency weakness seems almost inevitable now

sabretoothtigger

Thought I'd post my recent trades for this month. I do think we will go down but some companies I believe are reasonable value as I sold them last year at much higher prices hence my speculation now is free.
Also I sold VED from August, just buying it back now again






HOIL has Uganda parliament calling for an emergency recall, they are that important apparently.
The decision to have arbitration in London is genius, hopefully it will be fair and subject to international law not national politics. Half their market cap is about that case I think so one for the lawyers

GKP and HOIL both relatively strong as they seen as cheap (they are but risk who knows). Also BP appears above par in its recent performance (and volume etc) , astounding!

I sold HOIL on a trailing stop loss, back to a fairly normal position size now. Needs to continue up now or it'll repeat itself once again

I accidentally bought 2x too much BHP (an old order) and also judged the momentum wrong yet again. Its plunged, I bought not that near the bottom but still I think decent value, I dont buy junk.
Prices can really appear very bad if Federal Reserve displeases the market or whatever so 2x is not the best timing


Sold some Lloyds. VGM has a reasonable bottom at 91 but due to BHP mistake, have set my stoploss to breakeven if need be.
Sold my Tech fund as Apple is booming higher then ever and I already have enough exposure, I think Im close to their ceiling. I will switch into gold related funds

Bought FXPO, VED and KAZ. I didnt get the best prices but I think they a reasonable hold. I have a SP500 short

The oil price is not falling just in a loop. Will buy back BP at 395 as it seems tied to oil more now

amictus

Thanks for the update, it makes for interesting reading for someone who is just trying to get started in all this. Out of interest, do you tend to trade in fixed-size amounts? What amount would you generally consider reasonable considering the ~£20 buying/selling fees?

VED looks promising... will certainly be looking into this!

JamesU

StevieJ wrote: »

Surely Aviva must be a good buy now.
Yield 8.4 P/E 5.5 Dividend cover 2.19

EU insurance sector towards two year low. Painful for Aviva today at around 275-280, 8.7%, ex-div yesterday though.



JamesU

gadgetmind

I hold some Aviva, and am down about 25%, but I bought for the yield so am happy to pay the long game. I'm considering a top-up, but I also hold Amlin, so have quite a bit in insurance. Thoughts?

I added another recovery/income play today in the shape of WS Atkins at 506p.

I'd love to pick up some National Grid for its 6%+ yield, but the price is still "toppy" as are the miners despite heavy recent drops.

sabretoothtigger

I have some WS also, seems to be nicely operated. Insurance is a bargain and has been for a while because they are exposed to market performance, they must keep enough capital spare to pay their customers at all times.

SL is another one that is likely a good price, pays a good div yet never really rises that much


Very bad timing on my mistake of buying too much BHP yet I still think they are a solid performer as a company even if the share price is all over the place


Owains see halifax sharebuilder for smaller amounts and also XO are a bit cheaper. You want to keep costs below 1% really


FED actions amount to not much hence market stops holding its breath and sells

JamesU

gadgetmind wrote: »

I hold some Aviva, and am down about 25%, but I bought for the yield so am happy to pay the long game. I'm considering a top-up, but I also hold Amlin, so have quite a bit in insurance. Thoughts?

Aviva seems good value but more weakness to follow I guess. Punted AV on May 10 lows but sold long ago, as STT says, insurance entering bargain territory again. Not convinced on Amlin though, it took very big hits this year on various global...earthquakes, tornadoes etc. so not just a kneejerk reaction on weak financial markets.

JamesU