UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

The short answer here for me is I dont use moving averages to that extent. Some people do, its a measure of momentum which can be a very powerful thing if read correctly but for me its more confusing.
See this guy, he uses MA alot. http://www.youtube.com/thermal1

I go with his advice but I dont use ma as much

200 dma and also 5dma. Simple as a 200 and 5 on a daily chart


I use mostly lots of trend lines which is a line which touches past price as many times as possible. This can help indicate future touches and direction but its not certain.

Mostly whatever works for you is fine, hence Im not commenting in any detail here to your questions. Maybe you measure in feet and I do metres but whatever helps your judgement is good, you want to weigh in the measure of each move like a game of bowls or something :laugh:


Right now Im looking at RKH
The stock we nearly went to war over last year, right now its dropped alot and seems good value to me / fair risk to me

I swapped it for some HDY because they wanted me to phone in about doing both, might as well swap the risk, take profits on one for the other. I guess thats good practise.


We're at 5972 as mentioned a day or so ago. Thats my take of 2010 trend (ie. ruler along most common prices typically weekly highs/lows are good). It needs to keep gaining from here really not be faltering as if it had become a ceiling

If I look for moving averages. I'd check ISF which is in hours data only. 5 day moving average, obviously we are quite alot negative now
200 is way off, this market is extended.
So a reset to 200 average price would see late Nov low price for ftse which is fair enough, feasible

Can also look at BP HSBC VOD RDSB for further opinion then on the index momentum.
Oil is still fine I think and dollar is noticable by its absence I think. Thats all I got, never quite sure beyond that when weighing stuff up

(7) Price ends below EMA200 so this represents "breaking through the support level" so this represents a buy signal?

I dont use EMA, just simple. For SKR they are quite similar. Should be looking for it to hold that line. Not as support exactly, its just an average but its reaction is an indication of how badly do people want to sell this

SKR did hold the 200 daily simple ma so far, in fact it was fairly bullish in that it bounced up. Still negative share price but that reaction was some positive

worldtraveller

Britain's top share index was on track for its worst weekly performance in eight months on Friday, with insurers among the top fallers after Japan suffered a huge earthquake.

By 0941 GMT, the FTSE 100 .FTSE fell 27.72 points or 0.5 percent at 5,817.57.

The index is down 2.5 percent on the week, with investor confidence dented by euro zone debt concerns, spreading political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and economic worries in China and the United States.

London's blue chips tested the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of 5,812, from the Nov. 30 low to the late February high.

"Even though a slight recovery cannot be ruled out from the current level, its extent should be limited by the resistance at 5,980. A further decline is expected towards next support thresholds at 5,700 and 5,625. First resistance is set at 5,875," Nicolas Suiffet, analyst at Trading Central, said.

Reuters

I'm frankly surprised that the index hasn't gone further south recently. Buying has generally continued strongly, largely shrugging off bad news. Maybe the very recent events will be a catalyst for a definitive change in direction?

sabretoothtigger

Quite a few nasty events going on now. Markets apparently preceded this with a bear flag, obviously now down.
Still nothing big generally, I have SPY still in an uptrend above 129.5

Just in the process of reinvesting into BP, almost fully back though it hasnt fallen massively. I would have liked to take todays low too but I'll leave it for the moment

I rue the day I sold my Chesapeake. Natural gas doing well with higher oil price, people are prepared to speculate on something giving an energy cost equal to $40 a barrel of oil and burns cleaner, etc


On stats and so on. I sometimes use OBV to measure the volume ups and downs. If OBV stays up when the price goes down generally it means the selling hasnt really been a great rush, its more likely to go back. Sometimes people use MACD or MFI or RSI in a similar way.
It all comes back to volume in the end, I still recommend keeping it simple if possible

Im posting because I remembered this stats site http://blog.alphascanner.com/?p=416
He has been trading twenty years and decided to try and automate some of his tools, its USA based but gives some idea how people look at these things

kidgorgeous

I notice morgan stanley has taken a stake in CDC. Is this a good sign?

sabretoothtigger

Its neutral news. MS could be holding them for someone else or they might buy the shares and short some options or something

Tons of the little aim companies have big holders like that I think. Standard Life owned like 11% of Bradford Bingley but it still went under
I count it the same as directors buying, not much and generally a confusing signal.

Forced big sellers can be interesting, I'd be more interested with stories about a sudden increase in share liquidity, it can make the share price drop but the company value can be ok still hence a bargain maybe

Mr Robert Israel, a non executive director of Randgold
Resources, purchased 2,000 shares in Randgold Resources on 9 March
2011, at a price of US$74.72.

Mr Israel's holding in the company is now 38,463 ordinary shares or
0.04% of the current issued share capital.

cloud_dog wrote: »

Its just that historically I've avoided them because I always thought they were overpriced but with the recent fall in SP (Ivory Coast related) was thinking they might be a good hedge for my slightly over exposed POG position (reduce my 23% of portfolio).

Any thoughts, any TA comments on RRS anyone????

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Looking at the volume profile. I think the buy target is May 2009 highs. Draw a line across the chart for 46.49 and that matches a few turning points.
Could go to Feb 2010 lows also but so long as you like them, I think at this price it would be a value stock. As such it will probably never get this low unfortunately so I wont likely own them :laugh:

See highest red bar on the left:
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5375/scr4731338.jpg

RRS continued to fail. Couldnt get off the floor, now they lost the 46 price support with a close below that on friday so continued weakness likely.

So the decision here would be to buy around Feb 2010 lows or not. Its close to my target price however its fallen for good reason

The news is its close to civil war. Im still holding CLF who operate in Ivory Coast but Ive not lost any money even though they have shut down all operations there. Its only 20k ounces and they have 70k ounces pa in other countries, so what is RRS like, are they more vulnerable in this instance

I dont think they have dropped enough in value? Gold price itself could drop still

I believe they are quoted as GOLD on the Nasdaq which might explain their high valuation some.
How about FCX, this company operates the largest gold mine in the world and it yields 3% I find them more attractive unless the story for Randgold is somehow more secure



Just noticed this from years ago -
Questor says Sell, It’s hard to see any value in the shares of Bradford & Bingley.

RRS is rated by them also

JonnyBravo

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

EMED on the go again. Lowest price was in line with a bullish retracement and continuation I think, in that it never lost more then 61% of the big gain

Quite a few bad weeks for EMED recently but some positive news at last from the Junta.

Sure it wont be all plain sailing but I'll be amazed if we're not significantly higher than now in 2 months.
I'm waiting for this sucker to make me a lot of money and feel I've waited long enough!

:j

JonnyBravo

JonnyBravo wrote: »

some positive news at last from the Junta.

Confirmed by the company today in a RNS.

Onwards and upwards. 3 bagger by this time next year.

sabretoothtigger

The recent low for EMED was very similar to its last visit at that price, very brief. Its the 61% fallback point from the 22p high again, until it loses that its not really a negative share. We know these things always sell off on big gains.
Im getting used to the way this always seems to happen with little shares


The news with Japan has caused alot of forced leveraged sellers I think. Leverage is the highest its been for years apparently and this increases the herd stampede effect I think.
The nuclear worry in Japan seems to be a factor when the majority of deaths are likely from the water itself rather then radiation. This is the facts so far as I can tell, its nowhere near as bad as chernobyl and never could be apparently but it is worse then 3 mile island.


The main problem was the active cooling was knocked out, modern plants are passively cooled so that this cannot happen. Also this plant was not in operation at its failure, chernobyl blew at its peak and so on

Talk through here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8nS0xJsyMw&feature=player_embedded

Live feed in english : http://jibtv.com/program/fullscreen.aspx

black_taxi_2

worse----its like japans leaders arent telling the full truth

they say its ok then you get further explosions

today--tokyo will receive low radiation cloud??

Robie

Now, that the markets are down & I am losing money on my ISA funds. :mad:

What funds/area to invest in while the market is down to make up for the loss in other funds. :j