UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Its only 1% moves still, I think we're still in the dock wait till we hit the ocean proper for some real waves
We've moved less then 5% in the last 5 days, its just it was all down :eek:


This is some nice timing for falls tbh because some of these shares are coming up to ex-div next month or next. I dont think big falls are likely, Im not sure yields are threatened either. SL is edging to 7%, Shell yields more then twice as much as exxon

commodities have recovered as much or more then banks in some cases so the falls are good news in a way, I didnt own any till recently so I dont mind if the price improves.
If this is the top of the market then I dont mind buying these so much, if the pound has been strong recently also then Im buying more relative value for my money (so I figure)

no substance behind them.
Were in a 10 year global slowdown so wheres their earnings coming from

I think the opposite could be true though these prices could be overblown certainly speculative for right now. The world wont be in recession for 10 years just parts of it, the gamble here would be about adjusting demand.

I think the west is slowing down for 10 or 20 years even who knows but other parts havent even begun. Its beyond my estimation but I feel quite comfortable with commodities holding their worth overall comparatively

Alot of the commodity surge was tied to dollar weakness, which is now coming back along with a falling yield on 10 year treasury usa bonds ^tnx
Wont pretend I understand the exact nature of this circle but because of the stronger pound I bought into some crb etc If the pound falls this outperforms and I like the base line anyway

[Deleted User]

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Its only 1% moves still, I

now that is the voice of reason

I just did the sums and the sipp has only gone down 0.6% since last weeks high, so not as bad as it felt

[Deleted User]

a bit more tweaking today, so sold shp as I have enough pharma and bought more big oils

tonygee_3

Some big fallers today
SHI profit warning
MCHL also
MARS RI
several others in sectors dragged down
Bought SHI(overdone??)

sabretoothtigger

09/07/09 10:00 Sales & Trading Statements Interim 2009 Trading statement conference call [analysts]

22/06/09 09:00
Quarterly Review of Dow Jones STOXX indexes become effective, SIG Plc into Dow Jones STOXX 600

22/06/09 10:00
Quarterly review changes to FTSE UK Index become effective, SIG Plc into FTSE 250 from FTSE SmallCap

http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/factsheet/factsheet.html?ID_NOTATION=9454329

building related no wonder its vulnerable & its got one of the worst charts Ive seen recently but they arent going to breach lending agreements they say and low expectations cant be news really.

seems a reasonable bet with that yield and cover. Its around the march low and recovering, where do you set your stop loss on these things

tonygee_3

Just Sold SHI +8%(my bottle went!!)
Upsides £1 Downsides 60p
DOW forecast downwards again
Suggest anyone overexposed,take profits,reduce
Should be plenty of bargains soon
Sabre,I dont set stop losses.
Most of my buys are distressed stock which will eventually make money(if not short term)

sabretoothtigger

I dont like stop loss either but thats probably one of my mistakes. I would have pencilled in a stop a bit below the march low as a reasonable level


Heres a video where he talks about risk/reward as being strongly related to how strictly a stop loss can be set

Candle Techniques & Risk Analysis with Ron Wagner

tonygee_3

I think if you are investing large amounts or buying shares that have done well,the stop is essential
Investing smaller amounts allows you to buy more if they fall a lot lower or I prefer to buy a similar stock that has been dragged down
That way, if worst case scenario,shareA goes bust hopefully share B will compensate
A common stop loss is 20% but in my view if a distressed stock falls by 20% that offers a great buying opportunity

tonygee_3

I bought AVIVA earlier in year @£2.50,it fell to £1.60!!!
so I bought PRU @£2 (Wish Id bought the rest SL @ £1.20 LGEN FP etc)
When dust settled I traded more AV @ 1.80 2.20 2.40 2.60
'Averaging down' is very dangerous..just read forums
Loyalty can cost you dear CTT is good example
People bought all the way down to 1p!!!

tonygee_3

Sold TIG +10%
More cash to play with