UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

[Deleted User]

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

On a shorter time frame, I was reading a pro trader discussing volume and he said a spike on high volume with low volume fallback shows strength and consolidation

Its hard to judge!

very true words, that is why I have equities with decent yields plus the fixed rate products as it all helps to stabilise the portfolio. Plus the crossed fingers of course

turbobob

I would think a breakout from the current range is imminent. I'm no expert but I think that the narrow bollinger width (a "squeeze" - implying low volatility) will be followed with a sharp movement in one direction or the other. As Kittie says, like a coiled spring. Which direction is the difficult bit :rotfl: One of the analysts on Digital Look is convinced its going down. I'm not sure.

tradetime

I think this is real crystal ball gazing time, I don't believe in history has there been a time when so much money has been printed, and so much government stimulus applied throughout the world, therefore we have no historical reference point to compare to.

Volumes have been light, certainly on the US markets which I follow, and getting lighter as we have entered the "summer doldrums" Indicators on US markets are somewhat mixed currently but chart formations are bullish, and markets remain in a well defined uptrend, thus with nothing much else to go on one has to favour the upside imho. That said I have decided we have reached the point where things could change rapidly, as such I have exited almost all my longer term positions and will only short term trade from here on until there is some more clarity. I now have only one small leveraged short on the S&P500 which is protected by long dated put options and one small unleveraged short on the FTSE, which is unprotected and rather exposed.

I think we will see a sharp move before the end of this month, this marks the end of quarter, and US funds will have to declare their positions, I believe many are still overexposed to cash which they need to get into the market, a fund manager would rather lose money in a wrong way bet, than admit to having been sat in cash and missed a big move.

tonygee_3

SOLD GSK +8% (in 10 days) better than cash in the bank;)
Might treat myself to a bottle of Lambrini:beer:

[Deleted User]

snap Tony. I sold a few gsk too and bought 3 small (for once) companies with good yields

sabretoothtigger

Thats a nice return, no idea why they have outperformed and now you've sold some I guess you dont have to worry about it either.
Defensive stock in a sideways market maybe?

What about bnc.l ~ san.mc

& ved.l

[Deleted User]

pandemic I think

sabretoothtigger

Right I read that also, definitely a short term sell not that I bought lol - slight outperformance today in line with their beta

The MSCI World Index has rebounded from a 13-year low in March. The rally pushed the index’s value to 18.2 times the earnings of its 1,655 companies, the most expensive level since December 2004, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Stoxx 600 Index trades at 25.4 times the earnings of its companies, the most in five years.

earnings falling as price does confirms the movement is correct

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGgN0TKToiVw

tonygee_3

Some panic today(realism setting in),bought a couple,possible bounce tomorrow depending on inflation figs.Still happy to have bulk as cash.Whats youre strategy Sabre???

sabretoothtigger

Not sure I have one :laugh: Ive lost the confidence to buy anything much at the moment without resolving to add to it later at a different price.



My screen was all red today apart from short ftse which I held onto, heritage oil, tate & lyle which have a good div, lloyds, silver continues to shorten its ratio to gold and of course ^vix gapped up 9%


Commodities fell today but since the pound has been so strong I figure now is a decent time to consider buying into them directly but also exposure through stocks.
Stuff I was watching fell, quite heavily in some cases but in theory that means the price has improved for me



Panic factor relates to ^TNX & dollar index I think
Everyone should look at commodities and currencies and maybe bonds as a general market sentiment indicator
It explains alot about true value not just prices and I think the big money works off this as they are international

We are tadpoles in a sharkpool :eek::D

I didnt even consider tomorrows inflation tbh, I do have a week ahead sent to me but usually I fail to prioritise the important dates and its not predictable how the markets react anyhow
Which stocks did you buy into?









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