UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

The only MA I really consider is the 5 day moving average or 65 sma on 30 min chart. Barc is below that, thats a swing traders guide apparently


In general I dont think I could bring myself to buy Barc at this price but I already sold some far too early previously


I have them meeting a downtrend from 2007 though I dont know how much sense this makes when sterling index is worth 20% less and the shares also have been debased some since then so who knows but I will guess negative on them for now

Need to look at XLF also, which is usa but so is alot of BARC now. It would be nice to pick up a holding in them before they return to full dividends, I dont believe they will do that this financial year

Rough estimate below would be 335 and if thats lost then it will back within the 320 to 250 range


The number to watch on Goldman is 148 I think. I should have turned positive when it kept above it in Feb.






Candlesticks video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9AlAvYa6MA

DiggerUK

Coal and wheat,
Thanks to all.
Interested mainly in coal, and think I will concentrate research in that direction. Wheat may, or may not, get boosted this year with yields, but next year?
More into buy and hold than trading, trading involves too much work for my lazy carcass.
Tending away from wheat investment, seems a fancy idea now, nothing more.

Interested to see a mention for Potash, instead of going for cereals directly, I think my best bet is to go for suppliers to cereals. Doesn't matter what the yield is, they still have to buy the same, or increasing ammount, of supplies.

Which puts two names in focus, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, both of which I have researched, and are big in coal.
Aware of China situation, and merger talks, but did well in boom with brand names which is a road I know, opinions still welcome.

They also have some exposure to my favourite commodity, but not overly exposed. Seems I can have some insurance on a wild bet, or is that just overconfident gambling.

Am aware of DAX, but what other funds should be considered. As I said, I prefer the buy, hold, and keep your eye on it, approach.
Not averse to more uranium exposure either as nuclear will have to supplement coal powered electricity in future.

Once again, thanks.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Which funds do people have if any ? I signed up to sarasin as it seemed pretty actively managed

We hold all three.

If you review the holdings of the three, whilst they are all agriculture, they have (or had last time I checked) slightly different weighting, i.e. chemicals, or equipment, or farming. Hargreaves Lansdown provide quite a nice breakdown of the top 10 holdings which would give you an indication of their current focus.

This diversification also explains why each tend to perform better or worse than the others over the same time period.

sabretoothtigger

DiggerUK wrote: »

Coal and wheat,
Not averse to more uranium exposure either as nuclear will have to supplement coal powered electricity in future.

Once again, thanks.

I think the general idea behind wheat is that countries becoming richer eat more meat which means feeding livestock and its just more consumption basically


I also heard that China is to build 1000 nuclear power stations, which sounds alot even for China but at present is building 1 coal station per day

Hargreaves Lansdown provide quite a nice breakdown of the top 10 holdings which would give you an indication of their current focus.

I think citywire shows the history of largest holdings also, which can be interesting to see when they have switched out of cash for example.

Numpty_Monkey

:spam:angelicaperolino
is a spammer

DiggerUK

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I also heard that China is to build 1000 nuclear power stations, which sounds a lot even for China but at present is building 1 coal station per day......

One thing is for sure, the lights won't be staying on no matter how many bloody windmills they put up.
Blow up a wind farm for Jesus sez I.

More to the point, do you see any major problems with Rio or BHP, apart from the fact that China just might swallow them whole.

StevieJ

This market seems pretty resilient what with volcanic dust, Goldman and todays high inflation.

turbobob

Yes. Even Goldman shares finished up yesterday. They are reporting today and I think the expectation is for more positive results.

With the inflation figures does anyone think there will be pressure on the BoE to increase interest rates in the near future? The VAT rise is a one off factor I guess, but I'm not anticipating fuel costs dropping much in the near future.

StevieJ

turbobob wrote: »

Yes. Even Goldman shares finished up yesterday. They are reporting today and I think the expectation is for more positive results.

U.S. stock market climbed Tuesday as Goldman Sachs, facing a second regulatory probe, topped analyst earnings estimates by a large margin.

Wilfieboy

I believe president Obama is due to speak out about banking in America. I have quite a few shares in RBS and from a very dismal outlook they have picked up nicely. Does anybody feel that when he does speak out it will cause the share price to plummet. I lost quite a bit of money with the B & B shares but that's the way the mop flops and I lost it. The top and bottom of it is do I hang on until June when I need to cash them in or cash them now as it might go pear shaped again with the price. Any thoughts would be appreciated