UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

[Deleted User]

cloud_dog wrote: »

kittie, I am also feeling nervous, portfolio also at an all time high, but a 8%-10% would be significant and I'm not sure we are there yet. (There I've done it, here comes the 10% correction)

Ahh but I am always happy with the bit in the middle. Seeing the bend at the end is the hard bit and there is an awful lot to lose as the portfolio grows. I owe it to my husband to have a cautious attitude from time to time, after all it is his pension that I manage and he is retired and is 63

sabretoothtigger

lvader wrote: »

I went for Barclays, Tescos, Associated British Foods, BP, Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Google.

Sounds like the type of shares I would go for ABF may fall back a bit to 900 depending how things go.
I think your quite brave buying them at an all time high but I dont know much about them really

Fresnillo is well managed, boasts a world-class asset base and its ambitious growth plans seem well within its reach. The gearing of silver prices to economic recovery — about half of consumption is accounted for by industrial applications — is also persuasive, says the Times

But it adds that, at 870p, ahead 24p, or 25 times current-year earnings — up 30 per cent in the space of two months — and the forecast dividend yield negligible, there should be better times to buy.

On the SP500 I noticed we are nearing my target of 1215 now. In fact its only half a percent away which makes it iminent in theory however I doubt somehow it's going to turn on a penny or dime even.

1236 would be topside for the trend, 2% away and roughly matches the end of this week.
Theres no reason why it has to fall just that there may be more sellers available at these prices and if the rise was on low volume that hardly makes it secure

My guess for SPY would be 124


Resistance takes momentum to cross in theory http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl78zo9j_tY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNVLOudWvQw

tradetime

Yes correction is possible from anywhere up here, but the trend remains intact, price continues to move higher and price is what is important. I note plenty in blogland still waging the short war. Volume norms would be nice to see, but then we don't even know what volume norms are anymore. Back in the day, Lehman et al were using 30x leverage, the average leverage of the large investment banks is reported as low as 9x these days, so where does that leave normal volume? Damned if I know Volume confirmation I consider to be most important in individual stocks, broad market, less so.
Another chunk of my swing longs in SSO went @ $45 y'day, I now only have a small position in that with a $44 stop. I will remain intraday only for a while as far as the broad market is concerned. Still holding silver and a gold royalty stock as long term plays.

lvader

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Sounds like the type of shares I would go for ABF may fall back a bit to 900 depending how things go.
I think your quite brave buying them at an all time high but I dont know much about them really

I only went for ABF because my wife works at Primark, A bit of amusement factor for her. Now I can blame her for losing me money, Barclays and Intel have been storming ahead. :T

bobbyj_2

nothing happening then suddenly TRP goes ballistic.

sabretoothtigger

Goldman is to be charged with securities fraud so we have some bad news to fit the possible snp res. Markets not taking that well right now though I expect any wider negative to take more time to confirm


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/17/business/17goldman.html?src=tptw


Agriculture
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18687.html


Intel exceeded my (near term) estimates and came above resistance. Still only 1% above my sale price due to sterling moving up.
Gas doing pretty rubbish as expected could get worse, higher inventory but ultimately the high oil price (and sideways dollar ) right now helps the case long term according to my master plan


RDSB top of the trend, HDY being squished downwards

Goldman let Mr. Paulson select mortgage bonds that he wanted to bet against — the ones he believed were most likely to lose value — and packaged those bonds into Abacus 2007-AC1, according to the S.E.C. complaint. Goldman then sold the Abacus deal to investors like foreign banks, pension funds, insurance companies and other hedge funds.

But the deck was stacked against the Abacus investors, the complaint contends, because the investment was filled with bonds chosen by Mr. Paulson as likely to default. Goldman told investors in Abacus marketing materials reviewed by The Times that the bonds would be chosen by an independent manager.

turbobob

So Goldman markets a product knowing full well that Paulson has filled it with rubbish, selected to fail. They then allegedly allow Paulson to short the product by selling him credit default swaps, while telling investors that he is long. Of course they default and Paulson makes a billion. You couldn't make it up. A very seedy story which could just run.

S&P down nearly 2% now. Nice timing Kitty if you got out this week

sabretoothtigger

Paulson is the good guy, he told the market or at least goldman which was the crap and the crime was that GS misrepresented this to their clients

Im not sure they'll be convicted as its normal for banks to short and long but I would say they are guilty of crossing the line



This sell off echos Jan in that we have chart action indicating possible top and also regulation news on the banks. It would make sense to build the banks up enough to whack them back into order when they can take it

tradetime

Remainder of my SSO stopped out @ $44
Interesting development re Goldman, will be interesting to watch play out. A regulatory body like the SEC doesn't normally go after something the size of Goldman unless they are pretty sure they can make it stick.

I blame cloud_dog personally

cloud_dog wrote: »

kittie, I am also feeling nervous, portfolio also at an all time high, but a 8%-10% would be significant and I'm not sure we are there yet. (There I've done it, here comes the 10% correction)

sabretoothtigger

Peston says RBS might be worth 1bn more now. GS would have to pay that back maybe but surely not paulson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/04/goldman_may_owe_british_taxpay.html


RBS is up like 60% since Jan 1st but I cant say I had the guts to buy it . Barc lost like 20p this afternoon as they also being sued though I dont think they'll lose






USD above 80.80 again now like in Feb but UDN has support so Im not sure how far usd strength will develop